The other matchup in the Western Conference Playoffs is set to begin tonight.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were able to make quick work of LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, taking them down in five games. On the other side, the Golden State Warriors beat the Houston Rockets in seven games to advance to their second Semifinal matchup in the last three years.
Let’s take a look at how the other Western Conference Playoff Semifinal will unfold.
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. #7 Golden State Warriors
It has been almost four months since these teams last played, with their most recent matchup coming on January 15th. Since then, the complexion of these squads has changed tremendously, namely because Golden State acquired Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline. As a result, we can basically throw the Warriors’ 3-1 regular-season record against the Timberwolves out the window.
While we often associate the Timberwolves and Warriors with offensive firepower, these are actually two of the better defensive teams in the NBA. Minnesota has the top-ranked scoring defense in the playoffs, while Golden State is tied for fourth. The Warriors are seventh in opponent field goal percentage, and the Timberwolves are fifth. I expect this to be a gritty series full of defensive battles.
If Minnesota wants to win this thing, they are going to need to crash the glass and gobble up a lot of rebounds. They’re second amongst playoff teams in offensive rebounds, which means they’re getting a lot of second-chance points. On top of that, the T-wolves are only allowing their opponents to average 39 rebounds per game, which is the second-best mark amongst postseason teams. Conversely, Golden State’s opponents average 46.9 rebounds per game, the second-most in the playoffs.
Steph, Jimmy, Draymond and the battle-tested Warriors.
Ant, Randle, Gobert and the rising Timberwolves.
Western Conference Semis action tips tonight with GSW/MIN Game 1 at 9:30pm/et on TNT! pic.twitter.com/yqnumJGKHW
— NBA (@NBA) May 6, 2025
If Minnesota wins, the team’s height and rebounding abilities will be a huge factor. The Warriors only have one seven-footer on their team (Quinten Post), and he isn’t even a starter. Everybody else on Golden State is 6’9″ or shorter. On the other hand, the Timberwolves have seven players who are at least 6’9″, and four of those guys are averaging over 24 minutes per game in the playoffs. Minnesota’s height could end up being too much for the Warriors to handle.
For Golden State to win this series, it just needs its two star players to play like the future Hall of Famers that they are. In the four postseason victories that Jimmy Butler has appeared in, he has averaged 27.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry has averaged 28.6 points per game in the Warriors’ wins. Considering Golden State averages 106.4 points in their five postseason victories, that means that Curry and Butler account for more than half of the team’s points when they win.
When we look at the Warriors’ defeats, it’s clear that neither Jimmy Butler nor Stephen Curry played up to what they’re capable of. In Golden State’s three losses to the Rockets, Curry averaged 20.7 points while Butler averaged 12.7 points. This represents a 40.5% drop-off in scoring from wins to losses.
Jimmy Butler will face off against his former team in the Timberwolves 👀 pic.twitter.com/ysmrZEWdS9
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 5, 2025
I am not concerned about Stephen Curry. I know that he will be able to put up points. I am worried about Jimmy Butler, who has fallen flat multiple times throughout the playoffs this season. Over the course of his career, Butler averages 21.2 points per game in the playoffs, but that number has dropped to 18.3 points per game this year. Jimmy Butler needs to be lights out in this series if the Warriors want to move on.
I don’t think Golden State has the length to go toe-to-toe with the Timberwolves in a seven-game series. If they can get out to an early lead and effectively shoot threes, then they’ll end up winning this thing. Unfortunately for Golden State, they’re only hitting 35.8% of their three-pointers this postseason, which ranks eighth amongst 16 playoff teams.
Intense defense and clogging up the paint with their big-bodied players will be the reason why Minnesota advances to the Western Conference Finals.
Timberwolves win 4-2
