The 2025 NBA Playoffs are almost set in stone.
In the Eastern Conference, we have the Cavaliers, Celtics, Knicks, Pacers, Bucks, Pistons, Magic, and either the Hawks or the Heat. Meanwhile, in the West, the field features the Thunder, Rockets, Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, Timberwolves, and either the Grizzlies or the Mavericks.
With basically all of the matchups confirmed, let’s take a look at how the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs will unfold.
East
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Miami Heat or Atlanta Hawks
The Cleveland Cavaliers do everything well on the offensive side of the ball. They are first in points per game, second in field goal percentage, second in three-point percentage, sixth in rebounds, ninth in assists, and fifth in turnovers given up each game. They’re not as good at defense, but Cleveland is still third in opponent field goal percentage and 12th in points per game allowed.
Meanwhile, the Heat and Hawks have fatal flaws that the Cavs can easily expose. Atlanta has the fourth-worst scoring defense in the NBA this season. Conversely, Miami is one of the worst offensive teams in the league (23rd-ranked scoring offense). Even if we look at just the last two months, the Hawks are allowing 119 points per game (fifth-lowest mark compared to NBA teams’ seasonal averages) while the Heat are only scoring 111.3 points per game (21st compared to seasonal averages).
Any way you slice it, the Cavaliers have the offensive and defensive capabilities to easily take care of both of these teams. If we assume the Heat earn the eighth seed, I think they only win one or (at most) two games against Cleveland.
Cavaliers win 4-1
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #7 Orlando Magic
It stinks that the Orlando Magic took a step back this season, but that was to be expected. Their best player and former number-one overall draft pick, Paolo Banchero, missed 36 games due to injury after playing in 152 of Orlando’s 164 regular-season contests his first two years in the league. They dominated the Atlanta Hawks in the Play-In tournament to earn the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, that means that they will have to face the reigning NBA Champion Boston Celtics in the First Round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
The Celtics are a buzzsaw on both sides of the ball. They’re eighth in scoring offense and second in scoring defense. More importantly, they average the most made three-pointers per game in the NBA with 17.8 (1.9 more than the second-ranked team). Considering the Magic are one of the worst squads in the league when it comes to defending the long ball (tied for 24th in opponents’ three-point percentage), it becomes clear that this is a matchup nightmare for Orlando.
Boston will be the only team to sweep its first-round opponent. As far as I’m concerned, they’re still the favorites to win the 2025 NBA Championship.
Celtics win 4-0
#3 New York Knicks vs. #6 Detroit Pistons
The New York Knicks have beaten up lesser teams all season. They finished with the fifth-best record in the NBA at 51-31. Against teams they have a better record than, the Knickerbockers were 50-20 this season.
Though they’re 1-3 against the Pistons during the 2024-25 campaign, two of those losses came at least three months ago. Simultaneously, their most recent loss came without their starters playing most of the fourth quarter. Even though Jalen Brunson had one of his worst games of the season in that matchup and the Knicks had nothing to play for, they still entered the fourth quarter tied with the Pistons at 85 apiece. I am confident that New York would’ve won that game had they given their best effort.
I think the young and upcoming Pistons have enough fight in them to make this a competitive series, potentially forcing a game seven. However, I think the bright lights of Madison Square Garden will be a little overwhelming for the fourth-youngest team in the NBA.
Knicks win 4-3
#4 Indiana Pacers vs. #5 Milwaukee Bucks
Damian Lillard’s availability will play a huge role in how this series shakes out. After being diagnosed with a deep vein thrombosis in late March, Dame’s blood clot has cleared out, allowing him to start practicing yesterday. The Bucks will need Lillard to play in this series to avoid another first-round exit.
Though I have confidence in Milwaukee, there’s no denying how good the Pacers have been. During the 2024-25 campaign, they’re seventh in scoring and third in field goal percentage. Over the last four months, Indy has a 40-14 record, the sixth-ranked offense, and the eighth-ranked defense.
With Damian Lillard’s status unclear beyond the first game in this series, the Bucks’ success will depend heavily on superstar power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been on a tear lately. Over his last ten games, he has been averaging a triple-double. On top of that, he’s averaged 30 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game against the Pacers this season.
If Lillard can’t go at all in this series, then the Pacers will win. However, I think Dame will be available for Game Three and should be able to help Milwaukee get past Indy in a close series.
Bucks win 4-3
West
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies or Dallas Mavericks
Unlike the Eastern Conference matchup between the one seed and the eight seed, I could see this series being incredibly close if OKC ends up playing the Grizzlies. Memphis is one of the best offensive teams in the league (second in scoring, second in rebounding, and eighth in field goal percentage).
Though the Thunder are good, they are not without their faults. My biggest concern is their inexperience. Despite making the playoffs last season, they were still the youngest team in the NBA this year. And while they won a postseason series last year, they defeated a New Orleans Pelicans team that was missing its best player, Zion Williamson.
Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, Oklahoma City is too well-rounded for Memphis to overcome. The Thunder are a top-three team both offensively and defensively. On top of that, they’re 15-2 over their last 17 games while averaging 123.6 points, which would be the highest mark in the NBA compared to teams’ seasonal averages.
If the Mavericks are the eighth seed, then OKC will sweep them in the first round or win the series in five games. Even if Memphis claims the eighth seed, Ja Morant is dealing with an ankle injury, which will hinder his effectiveness.
Thunder win 4-2
#2 Houston Rockets vs. #7 Golden State Warriors
This is a bad matchup for the Rockets. Even though they finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference, this version of the Rockets has no playoff experience. Only one member of the 2024-25 Houston Rockets was on the team the last time they made the playoffs during the 2019-20 season: Jeff Green. They have guys who have played in plenty of postseason games (Steven Adams, Fred VanVleet, Green, etc.), but four of their top six scorers have never recorded a start in the playoffs.
The same cannot be said for the Golden State Warriors, who are led by Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler. Those guys have combined for 483 playoff game appearances and 265 wins. That’s a win percentage of 0.549 in just the playoffs. That core wins more than half of the playoff games they participate in.
On top of that, the Warriors are 12-2 in their last 14 games against the Rockets. But, it is worth noting that Houston’s two wins against the Warriors came this season.
Golden State averages 103.4 points per game against the Rockets. Houston averages 101.8 points per game this year against the Warriors. Keep in mind, these numbers are with Jimmy Butler only playing in two of the five games during this season series. I don’t think Houston’s young bucks will be able to stop Golden State’s grizzled and battle-tested veterans.
Warriors win 4-3
#3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Since completing the blockbuster trade for Luka Dončić, the Lakers are 19-13. In games where both Dončić and LeBron James play, the Lakers are 15-9. Over the span of an 82-game season, that equates to about 52 wins, which would’ve given LA a 52-30 record, good for the number-two seed in the Western Conference.
Heading into the playoffs, the Lakers have been a better team than the Timberwolves. In matchups with their starters playing, LA averages 124.4 points per game while allowing 109.8 points on average. Minnesota is scoring 118.2 points per game and holding opponents to 108 points per game.
While that sounds like similar numbers, the Lakers’ opponents had a combined win percentage of 0.549. The Timberwolves’ opponents had a combined win percentage of 0.398. LA is playing better basketball at the moment against better teams, which makes them a difficult opponent for the Timberwolves, who have failed to live up to expectations this year.
Lakers win 4-2
#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers
This will be arguably the most evenly matched series of the first round and will likely go to seven games. Kawhi Leonard is the healthiest he has looked in years and is poised to be fully available for the playoffs. On the other side, Nikola Jokić has averaged a triple-double this season.
Even though they’re getting back Jamal Murray just in time for the playoffs, I’m still worried about the Nuggets, who fired their championship-winning head coach and GM earlier this month. I don’t expect the outside noise to affect Jokić. Hell, I’m fairly certain the guy doesn’t even like playing basketball. However, I do think those distractions, coupled with a head coach who only has three games under his belt, will make this a tough outing for the Nuggets.
I believe the stability and consistency that the Clippers have been able to establish in recent weeks will pay off against a team that looks directionless from an upper-management perspective. Keep in mind that the Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA (fourth), while the Nuggets are one of the worst (25th). Those deficiencies on defense will be Denver’s downfall.
Clippers win 4-3
