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Supercomputer predicts Arsenal’s shock chances of winning the Champions League

The Gunners are in with a surprising chance



Opta have made Arsenal shock third favourites to lift the Champions League this season, in their first campaign back in the competition since 2017.

The Gunners finally re-qualified for Europe’s top competition thanks to a fine campaign last time out in the Premier League, which saw them finish second.

It will be their first time returning to the top table since they were humiliated 10-2 on aggregate against Bayern Munich in 2017, Arsene Wenger’s penultimate season.

But they could be back with a bang should Manchester City not beat them to it. As per Opta stats, the Cityzens are overwhelming favourites to retain their crown, with the model giving the club a 36% chance of keeping the trophy come the final at Wembley in May.

A distant second place are Arsenal’s old foe Bayern, who are handed a 10% chance of success, much thanks to the arrival of Tottenham record goalscorer Harry Kane over the summer.

Next, however, are Mikel Arteta’s side, who are in with a 7% chance according to the model, just ahead of European supergiants Real Madrid and Serie A champions Napoli, at 6.6% and 6% respectively.

Having never won the competition in their history, Arsenal would be returning to the competition with a bang, but there is significant expectation that they will make it out of a group stage which has pitted them against RC Lens, PSV Eindhoven and Europa League winners Sevilla.

Beyond that, much will depend on the luck of the draw, and should they be pitted against the likes of Manchester City or Bayern Munich early on in the competition, that chance of winning could plummet.

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Ben Browning

Ben Browning

Football writer and analyst. Long-time writer of all things Arsenal and avid watcher of European football. Happy to discuss all things football over on Twitter.


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