Liverpool vs Napoli betting tips: Champions League preview & predictions

Liverpool vs Napoli prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Napoli

Liverpool welcome Napoli to Anfield for the second consecutive season. If the previous results between them are anything to go by, this will be another home win.

Napoli typically struggle on their travels in Europe. This is particularly true on English soil, where they have lost six of their seven visits. The other being a draw against Manchester City at the start of this decade.

Those six defeats in England include their two previous visits to Anfield.

In November 2010, Steven Gerrard’s stunning hat-trick, after being introduced as a half-time substitute, ensured a comeback win for the Reds against Napoli.

Napoli’s other visit came in the 1-0 defeat last season, Mohamed Salah scoring the winner. That game will be remembered for Alisson’s point blank save in the dying moments, which kept Liverpool in the competition and relegated Napoli to the Europa League.

Liverpool vs Napoli special offers & betting odds



Mohamed Salah

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 11: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool celebrates after scoring his team’s first goal during the UEFA Champions League Group C match between Liverpool and SSC Napoli at Anfield on December 11, 2018 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Liverpool vs Napoli: Who will win?

Liverpool have won seven of their eight Champions League matches at Anfield in the last two seasons. The only exception was their 0-0 draw in the Round of 16, against Bayern Munich, back in February. Therefore, it is no surprise that they are 4/9 favourites for the win here once more.

In fourteen matches at Anfield versus Italian opponents, there has never been a draw at full time. Odds of 7/2 are available should you believe this improbable run ends on Wednesday night.

The Reds have never been defeated at Anfield during Jurgen Klopp’s time at the club. Can Napoli be the first to inflict European defeat on him on home turf? They are 11/2 to do so.

Liverpool vs Napoli: Who will score?

Mohamed Salah scored the only goal of the game on Napoli’s last visit to Anfield. He is also Liverpool’s top scorer in the Champions League this season, with three goals. Salah was an unused substitute in the Reds’ win at the weekend, versus Crystal Palace.

The Egyptian King is 3/1 to be the first scorer at Anfield on Wednesday, or 8/11 to get on the scoresheet at any time.

With question marks still surrounding the fitness of Salah, attention is also focused on Sadio Mané. However, he is yet to score against Napoli in three appearances for the Reds.

Including the Super Cup, Mané has four goals in five European games this season. The Senegalese international is 20/21 to break his duck against Napoli on Wednesday. 15/4 to do so as the game’s first goal-scorer.

Lorenzo Insigne scored the goal that sank Liverpool last season in Naples. He has been Napoli’s best attacking player once against this season, with a combined goal and assists tally of nine, in league and Champions League.

Insigne is 11/4 to get on the scoresheet at Anfield. Or you can back him at 10/1 to open the scoring in the match.

Liverpool vs Napoli: Match preview

In terms of results, Liverpool have been the dominant force of English football so far this season. They remain undefeated after thirteen matches and have collected thirty-seven of a possible thirty-nine points.

This despite being without ‘FIFA Best’ goalkeeper of the year, Alisson, for the majority of the season so far. They have also had injuries and fitness problems regarding Mohamed Salah, Joel Matip, Xherdan Shaqiri, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Joe Gomez and Naby Keita.

The underlying xG numbers both for and against suggest they may have been somewhat fortunate to have collected the number of points which they have today.

However, this also hints at the fantastic mentality Klopp has instilled in his squad. They find a way to turn games around and to get points out of teams where others may have accepted defeat.

Since the start of last season, they have recovered a remarkable 79% of points from losing positions; this is far more than any side in Europe’s top 5 leagues; the average is just 18%.

Liverpool vs Napoli: A look at the visitors

There is no such positivity at Napoli at this moment in time. News that the players rebelled, refusing to attend a training retreat ordered by owner Aurelio De Laurentiis, suggests something has gone majorly awry behind the scenes.

Manager Carlo Ancelotti also publicly disapproved, culminating in a strongly-worded statement from the club which suggested fines and possible legal action against all involved parties.

There have been reports of a dressing-room row between players and the owner’s son, Edoardo. Likewise of an angry video call between Ancelotti and De Laurentiis senior.

This all underpins an awful run of form with zero wins from their last five fixtures. As graph (above) shows, the underlying numbers show a similar downward trend in their attacking numbers. That their defensive numbers are following suit suggests damage limitation from Ancelotti as he looks to shut games down to avoid defeats, seeing games with lower xG at both ends of the pitch.

Whether this makes Liverpool’s task on Wednesday easier or more complicated is hard to tell. A well drilled side sitting in block ready to spring out on the counter could cause Liverpool problems.

On the other hand, this Napoli team appears to be in turmoil and on the verge of collapse. This game does seem to have all the ingredients for a potential massacre, should Napoli not be at 100%.

With everything going on at the club, how could they be?

Liverpool team news vs Napoli

NAPLES, ITALY – OCTOBER 03: Naby Keita of Liverpool receives medical treatment during the Group C match of the UEFA Champions League between SSC Napoli and Liverpool at Stadio San Paolo on October 3, 2018 in Naples, Italy. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Nathaniel Clyne and Joel Matip are still ruled out for Liverpool. Although, Matip is edging closer to a return to training for the Reds.

Xherdan Shaqiri is still battling to overcome a calf strain that has plagued his season. Although, he is now back in full training and could be in for a surprise inclusion on the bench here.

Mohamed Salah was an unused substitute for the Reds’ weekend win against Crystal Palace. He is still trying to fully recover from an ankle injury sustained in their clash with Leicester at the start of October. Klopp selected Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in his place on Saturday but Salah is expected to return here.

Jordan Henderson missed England’s final match of 2019 due to illness. He started against Palace but was removed with a little over ten minutes to go. Klopp may use this as an opportunity to rest his captain with a run of three Premier League matches in seven days approaching.

Georgino Wijnaldum played two full matches for the Netherlands during the international break as well as the entire match at the weekend. He may also be rested here with upcoming league matches in mind.

Naby Keita, James Milner, Adam Lallana and Oxlade-Chamberlain will be battling for any available starting berths in midfield, should Klopp choose to rotate his options.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Napoli

Predicted Liverpool team vs Napoli

Predicted Liverpool team vs Napoli

Napoli team news vs Liverpool

Lorenzo Insigne Napoli Liverpool

NAPLES, ITALY – OCTOBER 03: Lorenzo Insigne and Simone Verdi of SSC Napoli celebrate the first goal of their team during the Group C match of the UEFA Champions League between SSC Napoli and Liverpool at Stadio San Paolo on October 3, 2018 in Naples, Italy. (Photo by Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images)

Lorenzo Tonelli, Amato Ciciretti and Leandrinho will be unavailable for selection as they are not registered to play in the Champions League for Napoli.

Mário Rui, Arkadiusz Milik, Faouzi Ghoulam and Kévin Malcuit also look set to miss out on the trip to Liverpool due to injury.

While Carlo Ancelotti has used five different formations in Serie A this season, he has used 4-4-2 for every match in the Champions League this season.

Dries Mertens, Fabián Ruiz, Kostas Manolas and Mário Rui will all be in contention for a return to the starting lineup. Eljif Elmas, Piotr Zielinski, Nikola Maksimovic and Elseid Hysaj are the most likely to make way.

Predicted Napoli team vs Liverpool

Predicted Napoli team vs Liverpool

Predicted Napoli team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Napoli

https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1198360576038191104

The latest tweets from Napoli pre-Liverpool

https://twitter.com/sscnapoli/status/1198569145929019393

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.


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Back Liverpool to beat Napoli at 30/1!