Liverpool vs Leicester betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Leicester v Liverpool in the Carabao Cup

Liverpool vs Leicester prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Leicester

Liverpool welcome Leicester to Anfield for what has become a rare 3pm Saturday kick-off for the Reds.

It is also marks Brendan Rodgers’ managerial return to Anfield since his sacking in October 2015. He comes with a strong record against Liverpool of a win and a draw from two matches, during his time at Swansea.

Liverpool fans will be worried over their last two performances despite the results. They battled to a 1-0 win over Sheffield United and needed a goalkeeper fumble of Wijnaldum’s shot to finally give them the break through.

However, the underlying numbers for the game suggest Liverpool opened Sheffield United up enough times to have scored three or four but just lacked the composure to finish the chances.

In contrast, they had no problems finishing their chances in midweek as they destroyed Salzburg in the opening half-hour of their Champions League win. The concern will be how they let a three-goal lead slip. It harked back to a pre-van Dijk and Alisson era when they looked porous in defence and seemed to need to score four to win any match.

Leicester, in contrast, have had a strong start to the season and blew Newcastle away weekend. They hammered the Magpies 5-0, despite being without their star performer this season in James Maddison.

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 02: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool celebrates with Roberto Firmino after he scores his sides fourth goal during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 02, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Liverpool vs Leicester: Who will win?

Liverpool have won their last sixteen consecutive league matches. Can they close in on Manchester City’s record of eighteen, set back in December 2017, with another win on Saturday? They are the 4/9 favourites to take all three points here.

These sides shared the points when they last met at Anfield, back in January. It is the only draw between them in their last nine encounters. The odds of them sharing the points again at the weekend are 15/4.

The Foxes haven’t won at Anfield in nineteen years. Their last win here was back in May 2000 when Tony Cottee and Phil Gilchrest gave them a 0-2 win. Can they be the side that breaks Liverpool’s forty-three-game unbeaten run at Anfield? They are 6/1 outsiders to take all three points back to Leicester with them.

Liverpool vs Leicester: Who will score?

Sadio Mané’s goal in midweek against Salzburg ended a mini-scoring drought for him of three games. He scored in both matches against the Foxes last season, which were the opening goals of both games also. Can Mané repeat this with the opener on Saturday? The Senegal international is 4/1 to do so and 21/10 to score at any time.

Mohamed Salah found his scoring touch once more in midweek with a brace against Salzburg, including what turned out to be the game’s winning goal. Salah failed to find the net against Leicester last season. However, his three goals the previous season puts him on three goals in four games in this fixture. The Egyptian King is the 8/11 favourite to score during the match and 3/1 to grab the game’s opener.

Jamie Vardy has scored fourteen Premier League goals in seventeen appearances under Brendan Rodgers. This is more than any other player has scored in the league since Rodgers’ first Leicester match. He has seven goals in his last six appearances against Liverpool. Can Vardy keep that tremendous record going here? He is 13/2 to score the game’s opening goal and 15/8 to score at any time.

Liverpool vs Leicester: Match preview

Leicester face a tough task in trying to get anything out of The Reds at their home fortress, Anfield. Liverpool have been winning at both half time and full time in nine of their last ten matches here. They have also scored at least two goals in each of those ten matches.

As the graph above shows, their underlying performance numbers have been at a high level now since the latter parts of 2017. It is a performance level you expect of a title winning side. Their main problem being, of course, that Manchester City have also sustained phenomenal form in that period also.

The concern for them so far this season has been their defensive numbers which are now at a level we haven’t seen since the tail end of 2017. How much of this is down to the absence of Alisson? Or perhaps Liverpool trying to get to grips with the impact of VAR and offsides with their high line? Or maybe even as simple as the protection from midfield?

We typically see high-pressing sides with younger players in midfield capable of those high-intensity, fast-twitch actions for a full 90 minutes. While the likes of Wijnaldum, Henderson and Milner are capable of beating any Premier League midfield in a marathon, as they move out of and away from their peak age of 24-29, those explosive actions will decline first.

Liverpool vs Leicester: A look at the visitors

It is somewhat understated in the media the fantastic work that Brendan Rodgers has done since arriving at Leicester.

As we can see from the graph below, he has brought their performances back up to a level we haven’t seen since they were crowned Premier League Champions. Of course, at that time there were no Liverpool or Manchester City juggernauts clocking up 97-100 points a season. However, they certainly look like a side capable of racking up 75+ points once again if things go their way.

The concern will be the downward trend of their expected goals for (xG) this season. It is currently at a low-point not seen since the 2016/17 season. The five goals against Newcastle aside, they have at times been accused this season of having sterile possession.

The goal-scoring form of Jamie Vardy perhaps somewhat masks this issue also. He is out-performing his non-penalty expected goals this season by 137%. This is a freakishly high, and frankly unsustainable, level of performance which will regress towards the mean at some point.

By comparison, for example, the greatest player in the world, Lionel Messi, over-performs xG by 26% on average in his career. If we work on the basis that anything above that is perhaps unsustainable, this puts Vardy’s 137% over-performance in perspective.

LEICESTER, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 01: Xherdan Shaqiri and James Milner of Liverpool in discussion over a corner as the linesman looks on during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Liverpool FC at The King Power Stadium on September 1, 2018 in Leicester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)

Liverpool team news vs Leicester

After a very positive injury update prior to their midweek win against Salzburg, only Nathaniel Clyne is ruled out for Liverpool.

Xheridan Shaqiri and Alisson Becker, who have been absent with calf injuries, are both nearing 100%. It is unlikely Klopp will rush either back with an international break on the horizon. However, we could see either of them on the bench here.

Joe Gomez deputised for Joel Matip due to a minor problem in midweek. Liverpool will be hoping the big German can get back to match fitness sooner rather than later given how assured they look in defence with him so far this season.

Naby Keita had a brief cameo off the bench on Wednesday night. Klopp has stated he has been fit and available to start the past two matches. However, they are being cautious in rushing him back again.

He strongly hinted he would start in a coming match, which given he didn’t start against Salzburg, would suggest he should be in the starting XI on Saturday. Likely at the expense of Henderson, who struggled against Leicester last season and against Salzburg in midweek.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Leicester

Predicted Liverpool team vs Leicester

Predicted Liverpool team vs Leicester

LEICESTER, ENGLAND – MARCH 30: Brendan Rodgers, Manager of Leicester City acknowledges the fans after the Premier League match between Leicester City and AFC Bournemouth at The King Power Stadium on March 30, 2019 in Leicester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Leicester team news vs Liverpool

Matty James, Bartosz Kapustka and George Thomas remain unavailable for Leicester.

James Maddison missed Leicester’s thrashing of Newcastle United with an injury. However, Brendan Rodgers has confirmed he is back in training and should be available again at the weekend.

Hamza Choudhury returning in place of Dennis Praet is the only other possible change. Rodgers seems likely to stick with more or less the same side as last weekend.

Predicted Leicester team vs Liverpool

Predicted Leicester team vs Liverpool

Predicted Leicester team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Leicester

The latest tweets from Leicester pre-Liverpool

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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