Man City vs Real Madrid: Champions League preview, team news, expected lineups, how to watch on TV and prediction

Man City vs Real Madrid match preview

If Manchester City meeting Real Madrid would not have been a surprise prediction before the start of the 2024/25 Champions League, few would have expected each side to have lost three times by this point of their campaigns.

Both teams were in danger of exiting the competition with two matches of the new eight-game league format remaining, and City only rescued themselves during the final 45 minutes of their final game of the initial stage, beating Club Brugge in a comeback inspired by half-time substitute Savinho.

“We should be getting into the next round more convincingly and not find ourselves in a play-off against Real Madrid,” the winger told City’s website.

“It’s worth mentioning that Real Madrid, with all the weight their shirt carries, shouldn’t be in the play-offs either, with all due respect to the other teams.

 

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“I’ll be fulfilling a dream. I always watched Manchester City vs Real Madrid on the TV back when I was playing for [Brazilian club] Atletico Mineiro. Now I get to be here, living this moment.”

Madrid won their final three matches of the league phase to finish in the play-off places and have always made the round of 16 in the modern format of the competition.

The 15-time winners are by far the most successful team in the history of the Champions League, reaching the semi-finals twice and lifting the trophy twice during the past four seasons, the last three of which have included encounters with City.

While City’s home game on Tuesday (8pm GMT) is less likely to be decisive in the tie this time, they were knocked out at Etihad Stadium last season when Madrid beat them on penalties there after a 4-4 draw on aggregate.

RUBEN 💬 Last year [against Real Madrid] was frustrating because we dominated the game and even so we weren’t able to score the goal that would have made a difference. We know who we are facing – a team that plays differently to us. They won’t make it easy. We need to do what we… pic.twitter.com/kzDmdZpp8G

— Manchester City (@ManCity) February 10, 2025

City’s 4-0 home win sealed a 5-1 aggregate thrashing on their way to the title the previous season, and Madrid won 3-1 at home in an epic in 2021/22, ensuring they prevailed 6-5 after extra time.

“We probably let ourselves down in a few of the games and that is the reason why we have ended up in the [play-offs],” Madrid and England attacker Jude Bellingham told UEFA.com after his side’s 3-0 win at Brest on Matchday 8.

“We’ll try and face [City] with a better face. You can see that we are definitely starting to click as a team in the last few weeks.”

Manchester City vs Madrid team news

Defender Abdukodir Khusanov, midfielder Nico Gonzalez and forward Omar Marmoush could make their European debuts for City after being added to their Champions League squad.

Centre-back Vitor Reis became the most expensive Brazilian defender in history when he arrived from Palmeiras for £29.6 million in January, but the 19-year-old has not been registered for the Champions League.

PEP 💬 We have not been consistent. What has defined us in recent years is we have been an incredible machine. We can perform well tomorrow and we can perform well in Madrid. pic.twitter.com/awzziHGRcL

— Manchester City (@ManCity) February 10, 2025

Gonzalez’s first appearance for the club lasted 22 minutes before he was withdrawn with an issue during the 2-1 FA Cup fourth-round win at third-tier Leyton Orient on Saturday, and manager Pep Guardiola hopes the Spaniard will have recovered.

Key midfielder Rodri was a surprise addition to their European squad for the knockout stage but is unlikely to return for several months as the Spain international continues his recovery from a serious knee injury.

Goalkeeper Ederson has been sidelined for City this month but could return, while centre-back Nathan Ake and winger Jeremy Doku are doubts.

Real Madrid’s list of defensive absentees lengthened during their 1-1 draw at home to Atletico Madrid in La Liga on Saturday.

 

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Right-back Lucas Vazquez suffered a left hamstring injury, with 19-year-old midfielder Chema Andres added to their travelling party in his place.

Manager Carlo Ancelotti had already been without Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, David Alaba and Antonio Rudiger at the back, so the majority of the visitors’ defence could be made up of players unfamiliar with their positions.

Ancelotti praised 21-year-old Raul Asencio and Aurélien Tchouameni – usually a midfielder – for their performances at centre-back against Atleti.

“For Tuesday’s game, we have to see the recovery of those who have played,” he said, appearing to hint that the likes of Ferland Mendy could also now be in contention to start. “Those who haven’t played today have an advantage to play on Tuesday.”

The situation could make it imperative that Tchouameni, Camavinga and Rudiger avoid bookings that would suspend them from the second leg.

 

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Manchester City vs Real Madrid expected line-ups

Man City starting XI: Ortega, Nunes, Akanji, Stones, Gvardiol, Kovacic, Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne, Foden, Haaland

Real Madrid starting XI: Courtois, Valverde, Asencio, Tchouameni, Mendy, Camavinga, Ceballos, Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr, Mbappe

How to watch Man City vs Madrid: Live stream, TV channel

Kick-off is at 20:00 UK time, with live coverage on Amazon Prime Video commencing at 18:30.

Stats

Man City vs Real Madrid prediction

The injury uncertainties facing both managers makes it even harder than usual to predict the outcome of a game that has been drawn or settled by a goal in 10 of its 12 editions.

Despite a run of form that has been dreadful by their standards since November, City have still lost only two of their last 61 home matches in all competitions and are unbeaten in 34 Champions League home games, winning 29 of those since a defeat to Lyon in 2018.

They will be wary of Rodrygo, who scored within the opening 15 minutes of both legs when these teams met in the quarter-finals last season, but take confidence from going unbeaten in 12 first legs of European ties, last losing one almost six years ago.

Madrid have knocked City out in two of the last three seasons but only have one win in their last eight games against them.

The Spanish leaders’ form on the road is also unconvincing, winning six of their 12 La Liga away games and losing twice on their travels in this season’s Champions League, although they have won at Atalanta and Brest in their last two.

Stats experts Opta point out that Kevin De Bruyne’s track record in the fixture makes the midfielder perhaps more likely than City top scorer Erling Haaland to net.

Haaland’s career total of almost six hours without a goal against Madrid makes them the meanest opponents he has ever faced, a figure De Bruyne has made light of with four goals and four assists in eight appearances.

The analysts’ supercomputer makes a City win the most likely result (42.7%), followed by a Madrid victory (33%) and a draw (24.3%).

City’s games against blue-chip opposition this year have ended in a 4-2 defeat at Paris St-Germain and a 5-1 thrashing at Arsenal, but they have won all four of their home games in 2025, although it is easy to imagine Madrid being considerably better than West Ham, fourth-tier Salford City, Chelsea and Brugge.

Going with the computations but against City’s ability to keep out a feared attacking line, we predict a 3-2 home win.