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Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

This article provides a preview, prediction and betting tips for Southampton vs Aston Villa in the Premier League on November 5, 2021.
Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds
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Salisu, Mohammed
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Armstrong, Adam
Broja, Armando
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El Ghazi, Anwar
Davis, Keinan
Elyounoussi, Mohamed
Diallo, Ibrahima
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Buendia, Emiliano
Archer, Cameron
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Tuanzebe, Axel
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Nakamba, Marvelous
Ramsey, Jacob
Romeu, Oriol
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Armstrong, Stuart
Lyanco
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El Ghazi, Anwar
Armstrong, Adam
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Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips

This article covers Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips and predictions. These are the betting odds:

o – Southampton win 2.1/1 favourites

o – Draw 3.5/1

o – Aston Villa win 3.4/1

Note: All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

WHICHFORD, ENGLAND – APRIL 17: Nike Premier League Strike Football photographed on April 23, 2020 in Whichford, Warwickshire, United Kingdom. No Premier League matches have been played since March 9th due to the Coronavirus Covid-19 pandemic. (Photo by VISIONHAUS)

Southampton vs Aston Villa: Match details

Match: Southampton vs Aston Villa

Competition: Premier League

Date: November 5, 2021

Kick-off time: 8:00 pm, November 5, 2021 (UK time)

Stadium: St. Mary’s Stadium

Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 08: Goalkeeper Emi Martínez of Aston Villa during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Aston Villa at Emirates Stadium on November 08, 2020 in London, England. Sporting stadiums around the UK remain under strict restrictions due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Government social distancing laws prohibit fans inside venues resulting in games being played behind closed doors. (Photo by Visionhaus)

Betting prediction: Southampton 2 – 1 Aston Villa

Southampton welcomes Aston Villa to St Mary’s Stadium on Friday for this Premier League match.

The Saints have the narrow upper hand in the head-to-head, with 15 wins to Aston Villa’s 14, from their 38 encounters in the Premier League. Home advantage seems to matter little in this head-to-head, with the teams sharing 8 wins apiece in Southampton in the Premier League.

Southampton have had the better of the most recent results with 6 wins from the last 8 matches, in all competitions. Although, Villa took all the points when the sides last faced each other here back in January.

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Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 29: Che Adams of Southampton during the Premier League match between Southampton and West Ham United at St Mary’s Stadium on December 29, 2020 in Southampton, England. (Photo by Matt Watson/Southampton FC via Getty Images)

Southampton vs Aston Villa: Recommended bets

101 Great Goals’ prediction of Southampton 2 – 1 Aston Villa is available at odds of 9.5/1.

1-1 draw. Only 1 of the last 8 matches between the clubs has ended in a stalemate. That match was a 1-1 draw here in Southampton back in the 2015/16 season, prior to Villa’s relegation to English football’s 2nd tier. Odds of 7/1 are available if you see this match finishing with the same result.

0-1 Aston Villa win. Aston Villa’s last visit to St Mary’s Stadium back in January ended in a 0-1 win for the Villans. You can back them at 13/1 for the same scoreline here on Friday.

Under 2.5 goals. Southampton’s last 3 home matches in this head-to-head have all ended in under 2.5 goal games. You can back another low scoring game here on Friday with odds of 2/1 for under 2.5 goals.

Che Adams Goalscorer. The goals had dried up for Che Adams (above), after drawing a blank in all 3 games for Scotland at the Euros and then failing to score for club or country at the start of the new season; a run of 14 games without a goal in total.

However, with Armando Broja unavailable against Chelsea in the EFL Cup, and missing against Watford due to injury, Adams has grabbed the chance with both hands, scoring in each of the Saints’ last 2 games. Villa is Adams’ bogey team, having played more games (10) against them without scoring than any other club. Despite this, the Scotland international is the 6.5/1 favourite to net the game’s opener on Friday. Or 2.75/1 to bag a goal at any time during the game against Aston Villa.


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Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND – AUGUST 28: Axel Tuanzebe of Aston Villa during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Brentford at Villa Park on August 28, 2021 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images)

Southampton vs Aston Villa: What are the betting odds?

The Saints are the 2.1/1 favourites to pick up back-to-back wins for the first time this season by taking all 3 points from Aston Villa on Friday.

Whereas, the Villans are 3.4/1 to pick up back-to-back away wins in this head-to-head for the first time since the 1990s.

Odds of 3.5/1 are available if you see Southampton and Aston Villa cancelling each other out on Friday.

Southampton vs Aston Villa – recent form and head to head statistics

Southampton FC vs Aston Villa form
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Liverpool FC vs Southampton FC - 4:0
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Norwich City vs Southampton FC - 2:1
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Southampton FC vs Aston Villa - 1:0
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Watford FC vs Southampton FC - 0:1
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Chelsea FC vs Southampton FC - 1:1
Latest match form, last 5 games:
w
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa - 1:2
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Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion - 2:0
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Southampton FC vs Aston Villa - 1:0
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Aston Villa vs West Ham United - 1:4
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Arsenal FC vs Aston Villa - 3:1
Last 5 games for Southampton FC
November 27, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Liverpool FC 4  - 0 Southampton FC
November 20, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Norwich City 2  - 1 Southampton FC
November 5, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Southampton FC 1  - 0 Aston Villa
October 30, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Watford FC 0  - 1 Southampton FC
October 26, 2021 EFL Cup 21/22 Chelsea FC 1  - 1 Southampton FC
Last 5 games for Aston Villa
November 27, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Crystal Palace 1  - 2 Aston Villa
November 20, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Aston Villa 2  - 0 Brighton & Hove Albion
November 5, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Southampton FC 1  - 0 Aston Villa
October 31, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Aston Villa 1  - 4 West Ham United
October 22, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Arsenal FC 3  - 1 Aston Villa
Southampton FC vs Aston Villa Premier League 21/22 form
Southampton FC Aston Villa
13 Matches played 13
3 Matches won 5
135 Goal attempts 125
47 Shots on goal 46
56 Shots off goal 51
82 Corner kicks 68
50% Average ball possession 45%
32 Shots blocked 28
24 Cards given 32
163 Free kicks 188
8 Offsides 17
1 Shots on post 2
1 Shots on bar 0
9 Goals by foot 15
1 Goals by head 2
11 Goals scored 18
18 Goals conceded 21
Southampton FC vs Aston Villa statistics for most recent head to head matches
Southampton FC Aston Villa
38 Matches 38
20 Home Matches 18
18 Away Matches 20
47 Total Goals 45
1.24 Average Goals Scored 1.18
16 Wins 14
14 Losses 16
8 Draws 8
Last 5 games & match results between Southampton FC and Aston Villa
November 5, 2021 Premier League 21/22 Southampton FC 1  - 0 Aston Villa
January 30, 2021 Premier League 20/21 Southampton FC 0  - 1 Aston Villa
November 1, 2020 Premier League 20/21 Aston Villa 3  - 4 Southampton FC
February 22, 2020 Premier League 19/20 Southampton FC 2  - 0 Aston Villa
December 21, 2019 Premier League 19/20 Aston Villa 1  - 3 Southampton FC

Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 21: Danny Ings of Southampton during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Southampton FC at Villa Park on December 21, 2019 in Birmingham, United Kingdom. (Photo by Matt Watson/Southampton FC via Getty Images)

Southampton vs Aston Villa: Match preview

“The league table doesn’t lie.”

One of the first things you learn when you start working with data in any industry is the importance of sample sizes. A sample of just 10 is very prone to variance with 30 being considered a good sample size. All of this is a very long-winded way of saying that a league table after 10 games can be very misleading.

So, while Southampton and Aston Villa are beside each other and separated by just a single point in the Premier League, is that a good reflection of where the two teams are at right now?

Maybe the form table is a better indicator, with Villa on a 4-game losing streak while Southampton have picked up 7 points from a possible 9 from their last 3 league games. You would fancy the team on the upward trajectory over the one with a downward one.

Expected goals (xG) actually predicted the change of form for both teams early in this season. After 6 games, based on the balance of chances created, xG suggested that Southampton should have had 6.8 points rather than 4. This is to say that if you replayed that run of games 10,000 times with the same chances created for each team, on average Southampton would have 6.8 points.

In footballing terms, performances were much better than the headline results would suggest. Therefore, assuming performances didn’t change, the Saints should have started picking up more points, which they did. Despite their good results lately, they are still 2.5 points below what would be expected this season.

Villa, on the other hand, were at the opposite end of the spectrum after 6 games, with 10 points. Expected goals suggested their performances were perhaps worth 7.6 points on average.

In short, Southampton have been a much better team than Villa this year and would win the majority of the time if the match was simulated 10,000 times. Of course, in real life, it is only played once, and the most likely outcome isn’t always the one we get.


Ralph Hasenhutt

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 16: Ralph Hasenhuttl manager of Southampton celebrates the win during the Premier League match between Southampton FC and Arsenal FC at St Mary’s Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Southampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Southampton team news vs Aston Villa

Sam McQueen is still out with a ruptured cruciate ligament. Given the fact that he has been out for 3 years now, it is doubtful he will ever play again at a Premier League level.

William Smallbone is back training with the first-team squad, but will need some time to regain his match fitness and may need some reserve matches before being involved in the Premier League again.

Jack Stephens will likely be out for the remainder of 2021 having suffered an injury to the tendon in his knee against Manchester City. Lyanco, the Brazilian central defender who signed from Torino in the summer, got a 1-minute cameo towards the end of the Watford match. He will be waiting for his chance to replace either Bednarek or Salisu if required.

Armando Broja missed the 0-1 win in Watford with an ankle injury. It isn’t believed to be serious, and he faces a fitness test to be involved here.

Theo Walcott, Nathan Tella, Moussa Djenepo, Shane Long and Stuart Armstrong are all available should Ralph Hasenhüttl look to rotate his options. However, it is unlikely that he makes any unforced changes to the side that beat Watford.

Southampton vs Aston Villa betting tips: Preview, predictions & odds

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 21: John McGinn of Aston Villa in action during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Southampton FC at Villa Park on December 21, 2019 in Birmingham, United Kingdom. (Photo by Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images)

Aston Villa team news vs Southampton

The big news is Danny Ings missing out on the chance to face his former club. The striker signed for Villa from Southampton in the summer in a £25m deal, as part of the trio of attacking players arriving to replace Jack Grealish. Unfortunately, he is in quarantine after a positive Covid-19 test.

Ezri Konsa will miss this match following his sending off just after half-time against West Ham last weekend. Tyrone Mings and Axel Tuanzebe will be battling over the chance to come in to replace him.

Trézéguet was Villa’s only long-term absentee from the knee injury picked up against Liverpool towards the end of last season. He isn’t expected to return to action until the early part of 2022.

Jacob Ramsey now joins Trézéguet on the long-term injury list. He managed just 72 minutes of the match against West Ham before suffering a high ankle sprain. It is expected that Ramsey will be out until after the busy Christmas period. Anwar El Ghazi is expected to replace him, with Emiliano Buendía moving into a more central area and El Ghazi starting on the right-wing.

Douglas Luiz missed the match against the Hammers with a hamstring strain. He has been ruled out for the trip to Southampton also. Marvelous Nakamba will continue in defensive midfield in his absence.

Bertrand Traore has missed the last 3 games with a thigh injury. He was expected to be on the bench against West Ham, suggesting that with another week of recovery, he should be available here.

Morgan Sanson and Jaden Philogene-Bidace both missed the West Ham match after coming down with illness last week. They face a late fitness test to assess their availability for the trip to Southampton.

Predicted Southampton line-up vs Aston Villa

Southampton's predicted XI to face Aston Villa.

Southampton’s predicted XI to face Aston Villa.

Predicted Aston Villa line-up vs Southampton

Aston Villa's predicted XI to face Southampton.

Aston Villa’s predicted XI to face Southampton.


Southampton vs Aston Villa – Official videos


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For more betting tips content see here: Premier League betting tips & Football betting tips.

The Premier League table as it stands:

# Team MP W D L F A D P
1 Chelsea FC 13 9 3 1 31 5 26 30
2 Manchester City 13 9 2 2 27 7 20 29
3 Liverpool FC 13 8 4 1 39 11 28 28
4 West Ham United 13 7 2 4 24 16 8 23
5 Arsenal FC 13 7 2 4 15 17 -2 23
6 Wolverhampton Wanderers 13 6 2 5 12 12 0 20
7 Tottenham Hotspur 12 6 1 5 11 17 -6 19
8 Manchester United 13 5 3 5 21 22 -1 18
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 13 4 6 3 12 14 -2 18
10 Leicester City 13 5 3 5 20 23 -3 18
11 Crystal Palace 13 3 7 3 19 19 0 16
12 Brentford FC 13 4 4 5 17 17 0 16
13 Aston Villa 13 5 1 7 18 21 -3 16
14 Everton FC 13 4 3 6 16 20 -4 15
15 Southampton FC 13 3 5 5 11 18 -7 14
16 Watford FC 13 4 1 8 18 24 -6 13
17 Leeds United 13 2 6 5 12 20 -8 12
18 Burnley FC 12 1 6 5 14 20 -6 9
19 Norwich City 13 2 3 8 7 27 -20 9
20 Newcastle United 13 0 6 7 15 29 -14 6
Last updated: 1 min ago

This article was edited by Conor Laird.

Southampton vs Aston Villa live streaming & betting tips FAQs

What time is kick off between Southampton vs Aston Villa?

8:00 pm on Friday Nov 5, 2021 (UK Time)

What are the betting odds for Southampton vs Aston Villa?

Southampton win 2.1/1 | Aston Villa win 3.4/1 | Draw 3.5/1

What is the 101 Great Goals prediction for Southampton vs Aston Villa?

101 Great Goals predicts: Southampton 2 – 1 Aston Villa

Click here to bet on Southampton FC vs Aston Villa with bet365!