Premier League permutations: Arsenal’s path to a first title in 22 years

How can Arsenal pip Manchester City to the Premier League title in the final two weeks of the season?

Premier League permutations: Arsenal’s path to a first title in 22 years

Leandro Trossard’s goal against West Ham sent the Arsenal away end into delirium in the 83rd minute at the London Stadium on Sunday, and with it, the title race took its latest twist.

The gap is now five points with just two games remaining, and Manchester City are left staring at a mountain they may no longer have the legs to climb.

Arsenal are on the edge of history. Their 1-0 win – sealed in the most nerve-shredding circumstances – restored the precious gap over City at the top of the Premier League with two games remaining for the Gunners and three for their rivals.

Two more Arsenal wins, from their home fixture against Burnley and the final-day trip to Crystal Palace, would be enough to end a 22-year wait for the Premier League title.

“What a moment, what an afternoon, what a week it’s been for us, so full of emotions,” said Mikel Arteta after the final whistle.

“I cannot praise enough the attitude, the desire, the courage and the quality of the team shown throughout this week because there was so much at stake. I think we started the game so well, we created three big chances to go in front and we didn’t manage to do that, so we have to keep our heads cool.”

The biggest call in VAR history

Sunday was not comfortable. Ben White limped off early, forcing a reshuffle that invited West Ham into the contest. Trossard hit the bar twice from the same corner. The game ebbed and flowed, and then, six minutes into stoppage time, Callum Wilson bundled the ball over the line, and West Ham’s support erupted.

It lasted 90 seconds. VAR flagged that Pablo had his arm across David Raya’s as the ball came in. Referee Chris Kavanagh reviewed the monitor and disallowed the goal. The Arsenal end went from silence to ecstasy.

“When I had to be critical, I have been. Today I have to congratulate them”, Arteta added.

“You needed a lot of courage and bravery to stand out and give the opportunity to the referee to have a look at the action. When you see the picture, clearly, I think there is no question that it is a clear foul. The action deserved that. In my opinion, it is very clear. They are the rules and we ask for consistency.”

Trossard, the goalscorer, admitted he held his nerve in the chaos by trusting his goalkeeper.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta
3EDFPP7 Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta celebrates following the UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg match at the Emirates Stadium, London. Picture date: Tuesday May 5, 2026.

“Raya said straight away it can’t be a goal. At that moment, I had a lot of faith. I believed because he was pretty convincing, but you never know.”

Arsenal and Manchester City’s remaining fixtures

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures: Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A).

Manchester City’s remaining fixtures: Crystal Palace (A), Bournemouth (H), Aston Villa (A).

Title permutations

City need Arsenal to drop points in one of the remaining games to have any chance of being champions. Even if City win all three of their games, Arsenal become champions if:

  • Arsenal beat Burnley and Crystal Palace
  • Arsenal draw against Burnley or Crystal Palace, but beat the other, unless Manchester City can overturn the current two-goal difference in the Gunners’ favour
  • Arsenal lose one game, but win the other, and City fail to win all three of their remaining games
  • Arsenal lose both of their remaining games, but City fail to win any of their three remaining games
  • City win one but draw of their remaining three games, but fail to overturn Arsenal’s superior goal difference.

In short, two Arsenal wins end it. Win against Burnley at the Emirates on Saturday and beat a Crystal Palace team focused on the UEFA Conference League final, and the draught will be over.

History within reach

The last time Arsenal were Premier League champions was May 2004, the season of the Invincibles. Arsene Wenger’s side did not lose a league game all season. This Arsenal side, under a manager who took over a club in turmoil and has systematically rebuilt it into England’s best team, has been the most consistent side in the division all campaign.

They have also had the Champions League final to navigate – a final against PSG in Budapest awaits at the end of May, a competition they reached by beating Atletico Madrid in the semi-final last week. Arteta has been juggling everything.

“The high is not too high, the low is not too low,” he said in the aftermath of the Atletico win. “It’s an incredible group of players and staff. In elite sport, in football in particular, you can live a really difficult day but if you keep working maybe you get rewarded and we’ve certainly done that in the last few weeks.”

There are still two games to go. The Premier League is not won yet. But Arsenal have it in their own hands, finally.