Manchester City v Arsenal: Who wins the Premier League title? We predict the run-in and give our verdict
It promises to be tight but who do we fancy to finish on top: Arsenal or Manchester City?
Arsenal and Manchester City have slugged it out for much of the season and the destination of the Premier League trophy could become clearer on Sunday when the teams clash at the Etihad Stadium.
A draw would keep Arsenal in a strong position but Mikel Arteta’s men are woefully out of form, certainly in comparison to a City side that are flying after months of clinging on to the Gunners’ coat-tails.
City have the harder fixtures over the run-in but also the experience of having been there and done it before.
Here, we take a look at the remaining games, offer some predictions, and see how it all shakes up in what promises to be one of the closest title races in recent years.
Table of Contents
AS IT STANDS
A reminder of the current state of play.
Arsenal top the table by six points but City have a game in hand. So, a City win this weekend opens up the possibility of the teams being level on points and games. Arsenal have the edge, for now, on goal difference but that could flip on Sunday.
April 19
Manchester City v Arsenal (4.30pm)
The match on which everything could change, particularly if Arsenal can get any kind of result. A draw would be an enormous boost not just from a points perspective but it would also give belief to the squad and silence those who doubt the Gunners’ bottle. The problem is their recent form has been so patchy it’s very difficult to back them to get even a point. City have the momentum and if they can reproduce the swagger that saw them blow away Chelsea last week it could be a difficult afternoon for the visitors. The good news for Arsenal is their water-tight defence don’t concede many so the goal difference swing should be manageable.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Arsenal
Table
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 70 |
| Man City | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 67 |
April 22
Burnley v Manchester City (8pm)
To be clear, this is not City’s game in hand, that is against Crystal Palace. The trip to Turf Moor has had to be rearranged due to City’s involvement in the FA Cup semi-finals in which they will face Southampton on April 25. Whatever the date, it is inconceivable to imagine Pep Guardiola’s side losing to Burnley. The Clarets’ season-long battle against relegation is set to end in disappointment. They have won just one league game since October and the visitors should be victorious here with plenty to spare.
Prediction: Burnley 0-4 Manchester City
Table
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Man City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 70 |
| Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 70 |
April 25
Arsenal v Newcastle (5.30pm)
With City in FA Cup action, Arsenal have the opportunity to return to the top when they face Newcastle. It has been a largely underwhelming season for the visitors, particularly in the league, and, although they have a decent record against the Gunners, the home side ought to have enough to win this. Don’t expect it to be champagne football but a win’s a win.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle
Table
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Arsenal | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 73 |
| Man City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 70 |
May 2-4
May 2
Arsenal v Fulham (5.30pm)
Arsenal go first with City not in action until Monday. They play a Fulham side that could still be involved in the race for European football and will relish the chance to capitalise on the nerves that will no doubt be floating around the Emirates. On their day, the Cottagers can cause problems for the best teams in the land but they perhaps fall down in physicality, and that is where Arsenal excel. Another Arsenal win but another fraught evening for the home fans.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Fulham
May 4
Everton v Manchester City (8pm)
City’s first visit to Hill Dickinson Stadium and the locals will relish the opportunity to put a spoke in the wheel of a Manchester club. Everton’s new home has yet to match Goodison Park for hostility and this will undoubtedly help the visitors, who will relish the perfect conditions on the banks of the Mersey. Everton could well be gunning for Europe and David Moyes may have to break from his preferred cautious approach and attack a team that can be deadly on the counter. No slip-ups here…
Prediction: Everton 1-3 Manchester City
Table
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Arsenal | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 39 | 76 |
| Man City | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 73 |
May 9-10
May 9
Manchester City v Brentford (5.30pm)
This time it’s City’s turn to apply some pressure when they take on a Brentford side that have had a fantastic season but seem to have run out of steam. They may, of course, have got a second wind by the time this fixture comes round but, even at their best, it’s tough to see them emerging with anything here. The Bees have lost on their last three visits to the Etihad in league and cup and we think that run continues.
Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Brentford
May 10
West Ham v Arsenal (4.30pm)
West Ham have fought a season-long battle against relegation and, although things have picked up in recent weeks, it’s unlikely they will be worry-free when Arsenal rock up at the London Stadium. That, in a strange way, may play into Arsenal’s hands with both teams facing up to extreme pressure. If West Ham go into this game knowing a win would enhance their chances of staying up, denting Arsenal’s title bid AND potentially putting another nail in Tottenham’s coffin then it may all become a bit too much.
Prediction: West Ham 0-2 Arsenal
Table
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Arsenal | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 79 |
| Man City | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 45 | 76 |
May 13
NB. This date is not confirmed but it’s looking the most likely for the rearranged fixture between Manchester City and Crystal Palace.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace (8pm)
Another midweek assignment for City but another that should not pose too many issues. Palace’s involvement in the Conference League has stretched a small squad and, assuming they reach the semi-finals, they will have played five games in two weeks by the time they pitch up at the Etihad. That is not ideal preparation to take on a team chasing the title and we’d be amazed if Palace came away with anything other than a good hiding.
Prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace
Table
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Man City | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 79 |
| Arsenal | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 79 |
May 17
Arsenal v Burnley (3pm, TBC)
Not only will Burnley most likely be down by this point, they will be desperate for a wretched season to end and this is Arsenal’s chance to claw back some of the ground they have lost to City in the goal difference column. Burnley have shipped goals all season and it’s hard to imagine them putting up much resistance. This can only be a handsome home win.
Prediction: Arsenal 5-0 Burnley
Bournemouth v Manchester City (3pm, TBC)
Arguably the most difficult of City’s remaining games. This is scheduled to be Andoni Iraola’s final match in charge of Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium and he will be desperate to go out on a high. The Cherries have beaten Arsenal and Liverpool this season, drawn twice with Chelsea and drawn twice with Manchester United. Quite simply, they are a problem and we think this could be the game where City slip up. Bournemouth won the corresponding game last season and we fancy them to at least hold up the City juggernaut.
Prediction: Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester City
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Arsenal | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 82 |
| Man City | 37 | 24 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 80 |
May 24
Crystal Palace v Arsenal (4pm)
By our calculations, Arsenal will head to Palace still having to win to make sure of claiming the title. If, and it’s a big if, Palace are in the Conference League final that games takes place three days later and it’s highly likely it will be a weakened team that takes on the Gunners. That won’t sit well after such a titanic tussle but it’s what every other club would do in that situation. It also plays into Arsenal’s hands. It will be a nervy, horrible game but Arsenal ought to nick it.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 Arsenal
Manchester City v Aston Villa (4pm)
This game will rekindle memories of 2022 when City staged a dramatic comeback to beat Aston Villa 3-2 and win the title. There won’t be a repeat in 2026 with Arsenal doing what they need to do in South London. Villa could have been crowned Europa League champions four days earlier, qualifying them for the Champions League and eliminating any jeopardy heading into this contest. City will most likely still win but it won’t be enough.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa
THE FINAL TABLE
| P | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 47 | 85 |
| Man City | 38 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 50 | 83 |