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How likely are Arsenal to win the Premier League? Using history to predict 2022/23 winner

Arsenal have been top of the Premier League for the majority of 2022/23.


The Gunners are now heading into the international break sat top of the table with an eight-point lead over Manchester City.

But there are still 10 games to play, including another showdown between City and Arsenal.

So, 101GreatGoals have taken a look back at every 38-game Premier League season after their respective gameweek 28′s to assess how likely Arsenal are to win the Premier League.

And for the most part, things are looking good for Arsenal. In the previous 27 Premier League campaigns that have taken place with 20 teams, 17 of the sides top after GW28 went on to win the league, whilst 10 did not.

However, of those 10 teams that did not, only Manchester United in 2011/12 (70 points) had more points amassed at this stage of the campaign than Arsenal currently have. However, Liverpool did have the same number of points as Arsenal at this stage in 2018/19 before going on to finish 2nd.

You can view every Premier League leader and whether they won the title from previous seasons below:

1995/96

  • 1st place after GW28: Newcastle
  • Total points after GW28: 61
  • Did they win the league: No

1996/97

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 57
  • Did they win the league: Yes

1997/98

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 60
  • Did they win the league: No

1998/99

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 57
  • Did they win the league: Yes

1999/2000

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 67
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2000/2001

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 67
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2001/2002

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 61
  • Did they win the league: No

2002/2003

  • 1st place after GW28: Arsenal
  • Total points after GW28: 60
  • Did they win the league: No

2003/2004

  • 1st place after GW28: Arsenal
  • Total points after GW28: 73
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2004/2005

  • 1st place after GW28: Chelsea
  • Total points after GW28: 68
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2005/2006

  • 1st place after GW28: Chelsea
  • Total points after GW28: 72
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2006/2007

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 69
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2007/2008

  • 1st place after GW28: Arsenal
  • Total points after GW28: 65
  • Did they win the league: No

2008/2009

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 65
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2009/2010

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 66
  • Did they win the league: No

2010/2011

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 63
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2011/2012

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 70
  • Did they win the league: No

2012/2013

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester United
  • Total points after GW28: 71
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2013/2014

  • 1st place after GW28: Chelsea
  • Total points after GW28: 63
  • Did they win the league: No

2014/2015

  • 1st place after GW28: Chelsea
  • Total points after GW28: 63
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2015/2016

  • 1st place after GW28: Leicester
  • Total points after GW28: 57
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2016/2017

  • 1st place after GW28: Chelsea
  • Total points after GW28: 66
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2017/2018

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester City
  • Total points after GW28: 75
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2018/2019

  • 1st place after GW28: Liverpool
  • Total points after GW28: 69
  • Did they win the league: No

2019/2020

  • 1st place after GW28: Liverpool
  • Total points after GW28: 79
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2020/2021

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester City
  • Total points after GW28: 71
  • Did they win the league: Yes

2021/2022

  • 1st place after GW28: Manchester City
  • Total points after GW28: 69
  • Did they win the league: Yes
Josh Barker

Josh Barker

Middlesbrough fan from the North East of England. @JoshBarker979 on Twitter.


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