Tua Tagovailoa career at a crossroads after release by Dolphins: What next for QB?

He was at, one point, the prince who was promised for the Miami Dolphins. However, following his release by Miami on Monday, Tua Tagovailoa’s career is officially at a crossroads.

Tagovailoa was informed of his release by the Dolphins ahead of the start of the NFL‘s negotiating window, with teams permitted to agree deals with pending free agents from 12pm ET on Monday prior to the new league year opening on Wednesday.

A statement from Dolphins GM John-Eric Sullivan read: “I recently informed Tua and his representation that we are going to move in a new direction at the quarterback position and will be releasing him after the start of the new league year.

“As I shared with Tua, I have great respect for the person and player he is. On behalf of the Miami Dolphins, I expressed our gratitude for his many contributions, both on the field and in the community, during his six seasons in Miami.

“As we move forward, we will be focused on infusing competition across the roster and establishing a strong foundation for this team as we work towards building a sustained winner.”

The Dolphins parting with Tagovailoa allows him to get a jump start on attempting to revitalise a career that had once looked so promising.

Yet the fact the Dolphins were willing to eat a $99.2 million dead cap charge in order to release him speaks to how badly things have gone sideways for the former Alabama quarterback.

Tagovailoa was selected by the Dolphins with the fifth overall pick in 2020 after a stellar college career with the Crimson Tide. After moderate success in his first two seasons, the arrival of Mike McDaniel as head coach and offensive play-caller in 2022 looked set to turn Tagovailoa into the franchise quarterback the Dolphins expected when they drafted him.

His ability to deliver the ball with decisiveness and accuracy blended brilliantly with the offensive scheme McDaniel brought across from his time working with San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, and the integration of the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle into that offense turned the Dolphin attack into a fearsome one.

Indeed, Tagovailoa led the NFL in quarterback rating (105.5) in 2022 and then in passing yardage (4,624) in 2023.

But both those seasons ended in one-and-done playoff defeats, and Miami’s subsequent struggles after signing Tagovailoa to a four-year, $212.4million extension in 2024 raised scrutiny on a quarterback with an extremely spotty injury record — including a worrying history of concussions — often questionable decision-making and a lack of elite physical traits.

As such, his departure, which followed that of the man who drafted him, former GM Chris Grier, and McDaniel is no surprise. The Dolphins are wiping the slate clean under the leadership of Sullivan and new head coach Jeff Hafley, leaving Tagovailoa facing an uncertain future in the league.

What next for Tagovailoa?

The opportunities for Tagovailoa to enter 2026 as a starting quarterback are likely to be limited.

He may have to be content with a backup role, and will hope to land with a coach and in a system that can maximise his strengths.

In other words, he will ideally want to sign with a team that employs a Shanahan offense.

The Minnesota Vikings, who have a renowned quarterback developer from the Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree in Kevin O’Connell, will likely be seeking competition for J.J. McCarthy after his dreadful first season as a starter. They loom as a potential Tagovailoa landing spot where he could start, as do the Arizona Cardinals under former Shanahan and McVay assistant Mike LaFleur. Arizona is set to part ways with Kyler Murray when the new league year starts.

New Atlanta Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski runs a Shanahan-adjacent offense and has a starter in Michael Penix Jr. who comes with significant durability issues, making a move to the NFC South franchise a possibility for Tagovailoa.

The Las Vegas Raiders, who are certain to select Fernando Mendoza with the number one overall pick, could employ Tagovailoa as a backup under Shanahan acolyte Klint Kubiak, while a reunion with now Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel would make a lot of sense. That would see him back up the quarterback drafted immediately after him in 2020, Justin Herbert.

A spot as Brock Purdy’s backup with the 49ers could open if San Francisco elects to trade Mac Jones after his superb work in relief of an injured Purdy last season, though that appears unlikely right now.

Emulating Jones and newly minted Super Bowl-champion Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones with the Indianapolis Colts, in revitalising his career is what Tagovailoa will be seeking to do as his plots his next move, and there is one spot that stands out as an ideal destination.

Could Dolphins and Packers swap QBs?

With former Green Bay Packers executive Sullivan and ex-Packers defensive coordinator Hafley taking over in Miami, the Dolphins are viewed as contenders to sign Malik Willis to a free-agent deal and make him their starting quarterback following his impressive spell as Jordan Love’s backup.

That would naturally open a spot for a backup in Green Bay and, given the work head coach Matt LaFleur has done in getting the most out of Willis and developing Love, there is arguably no better spot in which for Tagovailoa to continue his career.

Miami’s offseason has, to this point, been largely defined by the Dolphins taking staff from Green Bay. It would be fitting, in that sense, for them to swap quarterbacks with the Packers as both they and Tagovailoa seek fresh starts.