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MLS Soccer: New York City FC vs. Columbus Preview, Odds & Prediction

MLS Soccer New York City FC vs Columbus Preview Odds & Prediction

Game: New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew
Date: Friday, June 14, 2024
Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
TV: MLS Season Pass

Match Preview: New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew

New York City FC (9-2-5) will host the Columbus Crew (6-6-2) at Yankee Stadium. NYCFC’s goaltender, Matt Freese, and Columbus’ Patrick Schulte will be defending the nets. NYCFC has an expected goals (xG) of 25.0 and an expected goals against (xGA) of 20.0 this season. They have scored 24 goals and conceded 17, maintaining a goal differential of 7. Their defensive record includes three clean sheets, a 77.9% save percentage, and 59 saves. Offensively, NYCFC averages 1.81 points per match, with 29 points and 17 assists overall.

Columbus has scored 21 goals with an xG of 19.4, conceding 13 goals, giving them a goal differential of 8. The Crew boasts a save percentage of 77.8%, with 41 saves and five clean sheets this season. They average 1.71 points per match, accumulating 14 assists and 24 points in total.

Additional Context

In Monday’s MLS action, Columbus Crew, currently red-hot, takes on a struggling NYCFC at 7 p.m. ET. The total for the game is set at 2.5, with expert Jeremy Pond predicting a low-scoring match due to NYCFC’s strong defense. The Crew, leading the Eastern Conference with a 5-0-1 record, just secured a 3-0 victory against Chicago. Conversely, NYCFC is off to a rough start with a 1-5 record and struggles exacerbated by playing home games at their rival’s Red Bull Arena.

Statistical Analysis: Odds & Prediction

Columbus boasts some of the league’s best stats, including an impressive 4.9 xG against 3.0 xGA, resulting in a +1.9 xGDiff/+0.61 xGDiff/90 minutes. This is second only to Toronto FC in the Eastern Conference. Expected goals (xG) is an advanced metric indicating whether a team’s results are sustainable based on scoring chances created, rather than luck or exceptional goalkeeping.

NYCFC, however, has struggled with poor metrics (1.4 xGF/-4.9 xGA = -3.4 xGDiff and -1.15 xGDiff/90), needing significant improvement to escape their current slump.

Key Players:

  • NYCFC: Goalkeeper Matt Freese has accumulated 171 saves in his career, with a 71.9% save rate. Forward Monsef Bakrar, a key offensive player, has 12 goals in 3,362 minutes.
  • Columbus Crew: Goalkeeper Patrick Schulte has a 71.1% save rate and 11 shutouts in his career. Midfielder Darlington Nagbe is a crucial playmaker with 38 goals and 33 assists in his professional career.

Betting Odds and Picks:

  • Spread: NYCFC -8
  • Over/Under: 208 points
  • Money Line: NYCFC -346, Columbus +278

Betting Recommendations: Columbus — Draw No Bet (+112); Total Under 3 Goals (-157).


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