After the Knicks and Celtics begin their series, we head out West for the opening of the Western Conference Semifinals.
The Denver Nuggets rode a dominating performance by the starting lineup to a Game Seven win over the Los Angeles Clippers. They’ll be going up against a well-rested Oklahoma City Thunder squad that swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and hasn’t played since April 26th.
Let’s take a look at how the semifinals will unfold in the Western Conference Playoffs.
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #4 Denver Nuggets
I think this will end up being the closest matchup of the second round. After all, these teams split the season series 2-2. And when it comes to scoring against one another, these squads are only separated by six points (Nuggets – 113.5 points/game, Thunder – 119.5 points/game).
It is worth noting that OKC and Denver haven’t faced off since March. More importantly, the final contest in the season series was the second game of a back-to-back. Taking that into consideration, I don’t think the Nuggets will be winning by 13 points, but that goes for the Thunder as well. I believe every game in this series will be decided by single digits. I could see one game being a 15-point win, but even that is stretching it.
Nikola Jokić continues to be inevitable in the playoffs. He averaged a triple-double during the regular season, and he has accomplished that feat through the first seven games of the Nuggets’ postseason run (24 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 10.1 assists). Jokić will put up gaudy numbers, but that doesn’t mean Denver is guaranteed a victory. In their most recent loss to the Thunder, Jokić recorded 24 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists, which is fairly close to his playoff numbers. Yet, OKC still beat the Nuggets by 24 points.
Eight teams out, eight still in it 🍿#NBAPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/pKlKVUgtpv
— ESPN (@espn) May 5, 2025
For Oklahoma City, the key to winning this series is to make Jokić play inefficiently. In their two wins over the Nuggets, the Thunder held Nikola Jokić to 16 for 36 from the field (44.4%). While that is still an incredibly high field goal percentage for almost any player, it is still well below his season average of 57.6%. Conversely, when the Thunder lost to the Nuggets, Jokić shot a combined 60% from the field in those two games. OKC can allow Jokić to score, but they must avoid letting him rack up a lot of points without having to take many shots. If they can force Jokić to attempt over 22 baskets per game, then OKC could be in good shape to pull off the win.
The Nuggets’ path to success is much simpler. They just need to get reliable scoring from their number two and number three options. Jamal Murray scored 34 points in Denver’s March 10th victory over the Thunder. Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook and Michael Porter Jr. averaged 43 points combined in the Nuggets’ two wins over OKC. They also managed to win those games without Aaron Gordon, who has been Denver’s third-best scorer in the playoffs.
The Nuggets’ first-round matchup shows that they’re better when other players step up. In Denver’s four wins over the Clippers, players not named Nikola Jokić made 49.8% of their baskets. In the Nuggets’ losses, those same players only shot 44.7% from the field. Clearly, Jokić will need some help in this series.
I think that Denver will be able to force a Game Seven after falling early. I believe the Nuggets will lose tonight because they only had one day of rest after winning a Game Seven in the last round. But they have the veteran leadership and playoff experience to overcome that adversity. More importantly, I feel like Denver’s role players will perform better on the biggest stage compared to the Thunder’s role players.
Nuggets win 4-3
