Game One of the 2025 NBA Finals is scheduled for tonight at 8:30 p.m. EDT. The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will play host to the scrappy underdog Indiana Pacers in a best-of-seven series. The victor will win the franchise’s first championship.
The Indiana Pacers defied the odds in the Eastern Conference by beating the Milwaukee Bucks, the number-one-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, and the number-three-seeded New York Knicks to earn the organization’s second-ever NBA Finals berth and its first appearance in 25 years.
“Basketball immortality with four more wins…”
PACERS. 🏁
THUNDER. ⚡️Game 1: 8:30pm/et, ABC pic.twitter.com/h4slatyzHu
— NBA (@NBA) June 5, 2025
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this matchup with the best record in the NBA and an absolutely ridiculous 80 wins combined during the regular season and the playoffs. They made it here by sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies, beating the Denver Nuggets in a Game Seven, and taking care of the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games.
With absolutely everything on the line, let’s take a look at how the 2025 NBA Finals will unfold.
My Prediction
There is a lot of outside noise from members of the media saying that this series is going to be a cakewalk for the Thunder. I believe that is a load of garbage. The Pacers have shown time and time again this postseason that they are a gutsy team that is comfortable being the underdog. Against the Cavs and the Knicks (who were both favored to beat Indy), the Pacers went 8-3. I do not think that this will be an easy series for the Thunder. Continuing to say that it will be will just fuel Indianapolis’ fire.
I expect Tyrese Haliburton will be contained in this series. I would go so far as to say he will probably struggle. Though it was a limited sample size, Haliburton averaged 11 points per game in the season series against OKC while being held to 44.4% shooting from the field, well below his averages of 18.6 points per game on 47.3% shooting.
A large reason for Haliburton’s struggles is Thunder guard Lu Dort. In his last four games when guarding Haliburton, Dort has only allowed eight points on ten made field goals in 122 possessions. I don’t know if he’ll be able to keep that up every minute of this series, but I expect Haliburton will be trapped in the “Dorture Chamber” at critical moments during the 2025 NBA Finals.
A head-to-head comparison between the Pacers and Thunder in clutch situations these playoffs:
Indiana: 143.5 OffRtg, 106.2 DefRtg, +37.4 NetRtg
OKC: 115.2 OffRtg, 103.4 DefRtg, +11.7 NetRtg
If games are close, Indiana has consistently shown they thrive in these moments. pic.twitter.com/R6pwGunY9u
— Evan Sidery (@esidery) June 5, 2025
I do like Indy’s frontcourt against OKC’s big men. I think Thunder power forward Chet Holmgren is a good player who can one day achieve greatness, but the reality is that Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam has almost 40 lbs. on the former number-two overall pick. I think Siakam will be able to average at least 25 points per game if he can out-muscle Holmgren, which shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Meanwhile, Myles Turner is a much more dangerous scoring threat than Isaiah Hartenstein. Hartenstein might be difficult to beat down low, but Turner has been an effective shooter from beyond the arc, which will have Hartenstein huffing and puffing from having to run all over the court.
The Pacers need to continue to hope that their bench players can effectively shoot the ball from three. They have four of the eight best three-point shooters in the 2025 playoffs (Thomas Bryant, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Pascal Siakam). Thomas Bryant only averages three points per game, though, so it’ll be on Nesmith and Nembhard to continue to light the world on fire from beyond the arc if Indy wants to win this thing. Considering Andrew Nembhard shot 29.1% from the three-point line during the regular season, I think there’s a stronger chance that he plays to his average rather than continuing to make 48.3% of his threes.
I have high expectations for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Pacers are one of the weaker defensive teams in the playoffs, as proven by the fact that they have the 13th-ranked scoring defense this postseason, ahead of only the Milwaukee Bucks, Memphis Grizzlies, and Miami Heat. Keep in mind that SGA averaged 39 points per game against the Pacers this season and 34 points in his last five matchups against Indy. I am confident the MVP will play like the MVP in this series.
“Pascal Siakam has to be Pascal Siakam. He’s the one guy I feel like in a half court is gonna have an advantage.”@ThisIsUD shares what he believes will help the Pacers score against the Thunder in Game 1 tonight ✍️ pic.twitter.com/UK2OtcUiy8
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) June 5, 2025
The thing that has been working in the Pacers’ favor throughout the playoffs has been how well their bench has played. Indianapolis has scored 567 bench points this postseason. By comparison, the other teams they beat to make it to the finals (the Knicks, Bucks, and Cavaliers) scored 284 bench points, 187 bench points, and 336 bench points. The problem is that Oklahoma City’s bench is almost as good as Indy’s (535 bench points). That advantage might be nullified in this series, especially against the fourth-ranked scoring defense in the playoffs.
By every metric, the Thunder are the better team in this series. But basketball games are not decided by statistics. They are won by people, and you can’t deny that the Pacers’ players have a ton of heart. Unfortunately for the state of Indiana, I think the Thunder have just as much heart and better statistics.
This series will not be a blowout like the 2023 NBA Finals or the 2024 NBA Finals. But the favored team will still end up winning the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Thunder win 4-2
