Burnley vs Chelsea prediction: Burnley 1-1 Chelsea
Turf Moor has been a very happy hunting ground for Chelsea historically. You need to go back to August 1973 to find the only time Burnley have beaten Chelsea at home.
Since then, Chelsea have picked up thirteen points from a possible fifteen here including three points last season. Victor Moses was the unlikely scorer of the winning goal that day in a 1-2 win. However, Burnley managed to take all three points at Stamford Bridge last season. So Chelsea won’t be taking their opponents lightly.
Chelsea typically don’t travel well after European games. They picked up just eight points from twenty-one after European matches last season. That fell to just one point in nine when considering only away Premier League matches.
Chelsea are undefeated in their last nine matches. At 10/1 odds for a Burnley win, expectations are for Chelsea to extend that run for at least one more match.
The games are usually very close affairs with just one goal separating the two sides in four of the last five games, including two draws. With a possible absence of Hazard plus Chelsea’s struggles to win games after a midweek European match, odds of 4/1 for a draw here may look very good value.
Despite these potential pitfalls, Chelsea remain 4/11 favourites to win the tie.
Only two of the last eleven league games between these sides have been under 2.5 goals. The odds of that trend continuing are 8/11 for over 2.5 goals. Under 2.5 goals is available for 11/10.
Burnley vs Chelsea: Who will win?
Burnley’s top scorer last season, Chris Wood, is available for 10/3 to score any time and 10/1 to open the scoring.
If you believe Burnley can break the deadlock from a set-piece, then 40/1 for Tarkowski to open the scoring may seem a good bet. He is also available for 16/1 to score any time.
With Eden Hazard likely to miss the game, the odds for first goalscorer for Chelsea are quite open.
Teenager, Callum Hudson-Odoi, is a shock joint-favourite to open the scoring at 9/2. He is 11/8 to score at any time. Alvaro Morata & Olivier Giroud are both available on the same odds.
Burnley vs Chelsea Match preview
Tactically, this game seems very predictable on paper. Chelsea will dominate possession. They will look to fashion unobstructed long shots if Burnley sit in their low block.
They will look to penetrate from the wide positions attacking the block from the side or cross the ball into Morata & Giroud.
Maybe this is exactly how it will play out. Or maybe Sean Dyche is planning to use this against Chelsea.
It is noticeable above that the higher sides have engaged Chelsea on the pitch this season, the fewer deep completions they have. This means they are struggling to get the ball within 20m of their opponent’s goal if the opponent doesn’t surrender territory to them. Instead, engaging them high up the pitch in Chelsea’s own half.
In addition, this tactic is often used by sides to create goalscoring chances – most famously by Jurgen Klopp. This is a tactic we have seen Sean Dyche’s Burnley use.
In fact, recently against Bournemouth, they registered thirty-two defensive actions in the Bournemouth half of the pitch. Two of their goals stemmed from such high pressing possession regains that day in a 4-0 win.
If Burnley do approach this game with the intention of disrupting Chelsea early in their build-up phase, can Chelsea escape the press unscathed?
Huddersfield managed to force thirteen possession turnovers in the Chelsea half, but perhaps lacked the quality to make use of them.
Liverpool, on the other hand, were able to create several clear scoring chances from such situations.
Burnley team news vs Chelsea
Nick Pope, Ben Gibson & Stephen Ward all look certain to miss the game due to injury. Aaron Lennon faces a late fitness test as he struggles to overcome a virus.
Robbie Brady is in contention to play his first game for Burnley since last December. A repeat of his memorable free-kick here against Chelsea eighteen months ago to tie the game would be very welcome for Sean Dyche’s men.
Lennon aside, Burnley are likely to remain largely unchanged from the side that fell to a 5-0 defeat last weekend.
Chelsea team news vs Burnley
Eden Hazard is a major doubt for the game as he struggles to overcome some lower back problems. He looks likely to face a late fitness test to decide if he will be involved or not.
The other injury worries for Chelsea are to squad players, Marco van Ginkel & Ethan Ampadu.
Ruben Loftus-Cheek will be hoping his hat-trick against BATE in midweek was enough to keep his place. It would mark his first start in the Premier League for Chelsea since April 2016. He has had just thirty-three minutes of league action so far this season.
Giroud may also come back into the side in place of Morata. Pedro may also return. Ross Barkley will hope his dramatic 95th minute equaliser last weekend will earn him a starting place in the side.
Predicted Burnley team vs Chelsea
Predicted Chelsea team vs Burnley
The latest videos from Burnley pre Chelsea
The latest videos from Chelsea pre Burnley
All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.