Arsenal vs Leicester betting tips

Arsenal vs Leicester City betting tips: Premier League preview, odds & predictions

Arsenal vs Leicester City prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Leicester City

Arsenal come into the game knowing they need to keep up their excellent recent winning streak to keep pace with the four sides above them in the Premier League.

Leicester will know they are up against it facing an Arsenal side that look like they are settling into Emery’s system at a crucial time.

Away to Arsenal is also something of a bogey fixture for Leicester having failed to win this fixture since the first meeting between the two sides in September 1973 – finishing a 0-2 for Leicester on that day.

Since then, their record has been abysmal failing to win twenty-one straight times when visiting Arsenal; a run that includes eleven straight league defeats.

Arsenal vs Leicester record

From transfermarkt.de: Results of all Arsenal v Leicester matches (Arsenal home matches only)

Arsenal vs Leicester City: Who will win?

Given Arsenal’s dominance over Leicester in this fixture over the last forty-five years, it will come as no surprise to see that they are strong 4/9 favourites to extend their winning streak in this fixture to twelve straight games.

Leicester City will hope the mantra ‘records exist to be broken’ rings true here, although their 11/2 status suggests few believe today will be the day it happens for them.

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Neither side has drawn a match this season. In fact, Leicester haven’t drawn a league game since April 2018; a 0-0 home draw against Southampton. You need travel back even further to find Arsenal’s last league draw, their first game of 2018 to be precise, when they drew 2-2 at home against Conte’s Chelsea. The odds of a draw at 7/2 reflect the likelihood of the teams sharing the points.

Arsenal have nineteen goals in eight games so far this season, but only seven of those have come at home. Leicester have twelve goals, but seven of them have come in away matches.

It suggests Arsenal score more freely away where the onus is on the home side to come out and attack more, thus leaving them more spaces to exploit.

Whereas Leicester score more away from home where their preferred counter attacking style, particularly utilising Vardy’s pace in behind, is more suitable.

This suggests something of a battle of style with a fair chance of both sides scoring – as reflected in the 4/7 odds. The over 2.5 for the game is similarly priced at 1/2.

Arsenal Top Scorer table - 2018/2019 so far

Arsenal Top Scorer table – 2018/2019 so far

 

Arsenal’s strikers are in good form coming into the game. Alexandre Lacazette has three goals in his last three league games, including a brace last time out against Fulham.

Lacazette is 9/2 to open the scoring and 11/10 to score at any time during the game.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is in even better form with five goals in his last four games in all competitions. This includes two goals and an assist in their last game against Fulham, despite coming off the bench to only play twenty-eight minutes of the game.

Auba is 10/3 to be the first name on the scoresheet and 4/5 to score at any time during the game.

Leicester's top goal scorers: 2018/2019 so far

Leicester’s top goal scorers: 2018/2019 so far

Nobody has scored more goals in this fixture for either team than Jamie Vardy, with six goals (three away).

Vardy has two goals in his last three league games this season coming into the game. You can get 13/2 for him to be the first scorer or 7/4 to score at any time.

James Maddison has also been a good source of goals for them from midfield this season. He has two goals in his last four games. He’s 11/1 to be first scorer and 3/1 to score any time during the match.

Arsenal (4th) vs Leicester City (10th): Match preview

Despite both plying their trade in Ligue 1 for a considerable portion of their managerial careers, Monday marks the first managerial meeting between Unai Emery & Claude Puel.

However, Arsenal & Leicester City are no strangers to each other. In total, they have faced each other forty-five times in all competitions; 53% won by Arsenal (twenty-four matches), 20% won by Leicester (nine matches) and 27% resulting in a draw (twelve matches).

In the two meetings between the clubs last season, both finished in home wins. Arsenal came from behind twice to beat Leicester 4-3 in the opening game of last season.

Then, at the end of last season, they met again. This time a red card for young Arsenal centre-half, Konstantinos Mavropanos, just 15 minutes into the game, was likely the main factor behind their 3-1 defeat in Leicester.


Graph Showing Deep Completions by Arsenal (Red) and against (Grey)

The above graph shows the deep completions (DC) both for Arsenal (Red) or for the opposition (or ODCs, in Grey) this season.

As you can see, after initially starting the season allowing 8-10 ODCs per game, this has been reduced to just 4 or 5 per game – which is similar to the other title challengers City, Liverpool & Chelsea.

This may be due to a drop in the level of the competition. However, it could also be down to players adapting to the new system and better understanding what Emery wants in terms of pressing which leaves less spaces for sides to escape out of their press.

In addition, they will be staying more compact in midfield thus their defence will be less exposed and fewer opportunities to pick off their high line without pressure on the ball will occur.

Graph showing the expected goals (xG) for (Red) and against (Grey) Arsenal for each match so far.

The graph showing the expected goals for (or xG) and against (or xGA) gives us some more information regarding the performances behind the results.

Since the opening day of the season against Manchester City, their xGA steadily declined game by game – which is what you would expect to see as players get used to a new system and improve every game.

However it, jumps back up for the Everton and Watford games, but is now on the decline once more. This coincides with Lucas Torreira being introduced to the team, which would see the adjustment process in midfield start once again for Arsenal as the new man adapts to a new league, club & manager.

Interestingly, their xG has also been trending downwards during the same period of time, almost perfectly in step with their xGA.

It is possible the midfield was taking too many risks to get forward to support the attack leaving them too open on the counter; or failing to ‘protect their attacks’ in other words.

Therefore by committing fewer men forward, they cut their ODC in half and the xGA fell also.

Graph showing Arsenal’s expected goals (Red) versus actual goals scored. (Grey).

This is perhaps the most interesting graph of them all. This suggests that while Arsenal have been getting the ball into deep positions, the quality of chances they are creating is not very high. Or they are failing to create what Opta would call ‘big chances’. Yet they are scoring goals.

So does it matter?
Well, in terms of points on the board, not really. However, sides (and players) are rarely able to over or under perform xG by this much for long. Ultimately, when looking at sides who have this much disparity between xG and actual goals, there is some regression towards the expected numbers over time.

Think of xG as the probability of scoring a goal with the chance created. So like a coin toss, while you may toss three heads in a row in your first four attempts, you wouldn’t then expect to keep tossing heads more often than tails. You would expect, over time, that after say two hundred tosses, the numbers would be around a 50/50 split.

Therefore it is possible this is a warning that Arsenal aren’t quite the finished article they appear to be over the past six game spell; this was merely something of a very purple patch where every shot on target they hit seemed to go in – or at least 71% of them did, against Fulham.

Graph Showing Deep Completions by Leicester (Blue) and against (Grey)

Leicester’s graphs aren’t nearly as informative as Arsenal’s are. They pretty much say what you would expect.

Their opening day defeat against United shows that they are right to feel a little aggrieved not to get more from the game. Also, it seems recently they have succeeded in creating good chances (xG) out of the relatively few times they get into deep positions (DC).

Graph showing the expected goals (xG) for (Blue) and against (Grey) Leicester for each match so far.

This was classic Leicester in their title winning season where they would capitalise on the few chances opponents gave them on the counter.

It seems that predatory streak may be returning that served them so well in the past.

Arsenal team news vs Leicester City

MADRID, SPAIN – MAY 03: Laurent Koscielny of Arsenal lies injured during the UEFA Europa League Semi Final second leg match between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal FC at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano on May 3, 2018 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Lars Baron/Getty Images)

At centre back, Laurent Koscielny & Konstantinos Mavropanos are both still absent for the Gunners. Neither are expected to return until late November, at the earliest.

However, Danny Welbeck, Sokratis Papastathopoulos & Petr Cech are all in with a shout of being able to play some part in the game after their recent injury lay-offs.

Expect Arsenal to revert back to their 4-2-3-1 shape with Mkhitaryan, Iwobi & Welbeck all dropping out of the side to the bench in favour of Özil, Ramsey & Aubameyang.

Leicester City team news vs Arsenal

Richarlison vs Wes Morgan: The first of Morgan’s yellow cards were awarded for this challenge.

Matthew James will miss the game through injury. He underwent another surgery recently in an attempt to solve his lower-leg injury problems that have plagued him for a number of years.

Wes Morgan will miss the game due to suspension following red card against Everton. Jonny Evans is expected to replace him in central defence.

Demarai Gray also looks likely to miss the game with an ankle problem.

Predicted Arsenal team vs Leicester City

Predicted Leicester City team vs Arsenal

The latest tweets from Arsenal pre Leicester City

https://twitter.com/Arsenal/status/1052681711320993792

The latest tweets from Leicester City pre Arsenal

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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HUGE odds on Arsenal to beat Leicester: 25/1!