Why Aston Villa & Brighton might be concerned by the Bundesliga results pattern

Jack Grealish

Is home advantage dead in the Bundesliga?

Following Tuesday night’s action in the Bundesliga, which included Bayern’s 1-0 win at Borussia Dortmund, many are continuing to conclude that home advantage is now dead in football’s new normal.

There have now been 22 games in the Bundesliga since football resumed.

Of those matches, there have only been 3 home wins (14%).

The only teams to register home wins are Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin.

Meanwhile, there have been 6 draws (27%) and a staggering 13 away wins (59%).

 

Why Aston Villa & Brighton should be concerned

The likes of Sky Sports have attempted to forecast how the trend of results in the Bundesliga could impact teams in the Premier League when football restarts.

According to Sky Sports, there’s been a “30 per cent slump for success on home soil since the league restarted” in Germany.

If that trend continues in the Premier League, then the teams with more home matches to play in their season would be at a disadvantage.

That could spell terrible news for Aston Villa, who are second-bottom of the league, as they have a league-high 6 home games remaining. Those games are against Sheffield United, Chelsea, Wolves, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.

Brighton, who are two points clear of the relegation zone, could also be in trouble.

Brighton have 5 home games remaining, as they need to host Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle.

 

How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away

How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away

How many points have each Premier League side collected home vs away

Credit to Sky Sports for this image.

Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club

Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club

Remaining home vs away fixtures for each Premier League club

Credit to Sky Sports for this image.

How many away wins have there been in the Bundesliga 2 & Czech Liga 1?

Some may raise eyebrows at trying to predict how Premier League games will play out by looking at what’s been happening in the Bundesliga.

That’s because the results from other leagues playing behind closed doors fail to back up the ‘home advantage is dead’ theory.

The German second tier, Bundesliga 2, is also currently being played behind closed doors.

There have been 20 games in the Bundesliga 2, breaking down as follows: 8 home wins (40%), 8 draws (40%) and only 4 away wins (20%).

While, in the opening five matches of the Czech Liga 1 season (admittedly, a small sample size), there have been 2 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win.

 


Premier League table as it stands:

#TeamMPWDLFADP
1Liverpool FC35303276274993
2Manchester City35233991345772
3Chelsea FC351861163491460
4Leicester City34178964323259
5Manchester United341610859332658
6Wolverhampton Wanderers351413848371155
7Sheffield United35141293833554
8Arsenal FC34121485042850
9Burnley FC35148133947-850
10Tottenham Hotspur341310115244849
11Everton FC35129144152-1145
12Southampton FC34135164356-1344
13Newcastle United351110143652-1643
14Crystal Palace35119153045-1542
15Brighton & Hove Albion35812153652-1636
16West Ham United3597194459-1534
17Watford FC35810173354-2134
18Aston Villa3586213865-2730
19AFC Bournemouth3477203259-2728
20Norwich City3556242667-4121
Last updated: 1 min ago

 

Also see: Best Netflix, Amazon & YouTube football documentaries & movies to watch during coronavirus isolation

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This article was edited by Ben Green.

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