BayernForum.com has run a simulator for the Champions League group stage draw, and found the most likely probabilities.
The Twitter account ran the simulator 50 million times and, according to the results, it is bad news for Tottenham Hotspur.
Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea’s most likely outcomes from Thursday’s 5pm draw have also been revealed.
Champions League Pot 1 confirmed, Pot 2 provisional
A few notes on the provisional #UCL group-stage draw pots ahead of this week’s final qualifiers.
Pot 1 is confirmed.
In Pot 2, only Ajax can drop out if they fail to qualify. That would move Lyon up into that pot. pic.twitter.com/jpcELbfABk
— Dale Johnson (@DaleJohnsonESPN) August 27, 2019
Champions League draw simulated 50 million times
We’ve simulated the 2019-20 #UCLdraw for the group stage, assuming Ajax make it through, for 50 million times, and here are the probabilities for the matches between the teams in pot 1 and the ones in pot 2. pic.twitter.com/nCUnAvCWAo
— BayernForum.com (@BayernForumCom) August 25, 2019
Liverpool most likely to start defence vs Atletico or Shakhtar
Liverpool’s pot 2 most likely outcomes:
Atletico Madrid – 16.08%
Shakhtar Donetsk – 15.28%
Real Madrid – 14.07%
Borussia Dortmund – 13.70%
Napoli – 13.68%
Ajax – 13.60%
Benfica – 13.58%
For the competition’s defending champions Liverpool, Atletico Madrid is the most likely outcome from pot 2.
The Spanish side have made a solid start to their La Liga campaign, beating both Getafe and Leganes 1-0.
The Reds’ second most likely outcome is a trip to Ukraine to face Shakhtar Donetsk.
The Ukrainian outfit would be a favourable draw for Jurgen Klopp’s men, but would also be the furthest distance to travel.
Manchester City facing similar outcome as Liverpool
Manchester City’s pot 2 most likely outcomes:
Atletico Madrid – 16.13%
Shakhtar Donetsk – 15.25%
Real Madrid – 14.06%
Napoli – 13.71%
Borussia Dortmund – 13.67%
Benfica – 13.60%
Ajax – 13.58%
Manchester City are also expected to face a similar fate to their domestic rivals.
Atletico Madrid or Shakhtar Donetsk are the teams that they are also most likely to face.
City’s percentage of drawing Atletico was higher than Liverpool’s, so for the Reds, it could most likely be Shakhtar.
A mouth-watering clash between Real Madrid and City is also a fairly possible outcome.
Chelsea expected to face one of the two Madrid teams
Chelsea’s pot 2 most likely outcomes:
Atletico Madrid – 15.61%
Real Madrid – 14.79%
Shakhtar Donetsk – 14.65%
Borussia Dortmund – 14.38%
Napoli – 14.36%
Ajax – 13.08%
Benfica – 13.13%
For Chelsea, they too are most likely to be drawn against Atleti.
However, the Blues have almost a 15 percent chance of facing the 13-time winners of the competition, Real Madrid.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Borussia Dortmund are also strong potential outcomes for the Europa League winners.
Tottenham expected to face group of death
Tottenham’s pot 1 most likely outcomes:
FC Barcelona – 21.56%
Zenit Saint Petersburg – 21.05%
Paris Saint-Germain – 19.33%
Bayern Munich – 19.03%
Juventus – 19.03%
For Mauricio Pochettino, once again, a Spanish giant in FC Barcelona is the most likely outcome from their pot 1 draw, according to the simulation.
Spurs drew the Catalan giants in over 21 percent of the simulations.
Both sides were drawn with one another last season, and the year before that, Tottenham drew Real Madrid.
The north London club also have over a 19 percent chance of facing either Juventus, Bayern Munich or Paris Saint-Germain.
However, Zenit Saint Petersburg is their second most likely outcome, just behind Barca.
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