West Ham vs Brighton betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

West Ham United vs Brighton and Hove Albion prediction: West Ham United 2-1 Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton have won each of the 3 meetings between these two clubs in the Premier League.

When the two sides met back in October, a Glenn Murray goal in the first half was enough to give Brighton all 3 points. They also completed a league double over West Ham last season. This includes a 3-0 defeat here at the London Stadium which marked one of the worst results of the season for the Hammers.

After Brighton took the lead through a Murray header in the 10th minute, the home fans booed throughout the remainder of the first half. This only intensified when Brighton got their second of the game.

They then poured out in the thousands following Brighton’s third goal 15 minutes from time, which sealed the visitors’ first away win of the season. Slaven Bilić was sacked as West Ham manager after their next home game; losing by 3 clear goals once more to Liverpool, 1-4.

West Ham United vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Who will win?

Brighton & Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Premier League

BRIGHTON, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 27: Glenn Murray of Brighton and Hove Albion celebrates after scoring his team’s first goal during the Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers at American Express Community Stadium on October 27, 2018 in Brighton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

West Ham have won 5 of their last 7 games; also scoring at least 2 goals in each win. They are 10/11 home favourites to pick up their first win against Brighton in the Premier League.

There have only been two draws between these clubs out of their 12 meetings in English football. The last of which was in the Championship back in the 2004/05 season. If you feel a draw is long overdue between them, odds of 5/2 are available for one here.

Brighton’s win last time out against Everton ended a run of 4 straight games without a win. Can they get their 4th straight victory against West Ham in the Premier League? Odds of 3/1 are available if you believe they can.

West Ham United vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Who will score?

Graph showing the top scorers for each side who are likely to be involved in the game. Click to expand.

Graph showing the top scorers for each side who are likely to be involved in the game. Click to expand.

Glenn Murray has more goals against West Ham than any other club, with 7 in total in 9 appearances. He has scored in every appearance against them for Brighton; 4 goals in 3 games in total. He is 7/4 to keep that run going here on Wednesday evening. 11/2 as first scorer.

Shane Duffy last scored for Brighton at the beginning for December in their 1-2 win at Huddersfield. He remains their 2nd highest goal-scorer this season with 3 goals; all from set pieces. He is 28/1 to open the scoring here or 11/1 to score at any time.

Felipe Anderson is West Ham’s top scorer this season with 8 goals, and undoubtedly a contender for signing of the season. He has scored 7 goals in his last 10 appearances for West Ham. At 21/10, he seems well priced to get on the score sheet here. Or 13/2 as first goal scorer.

Marko Arnautovic is the favourite to open the scoring in this game at 4/1. If you believe he can get on the scoresheet at any time during the game, odds are 5/4.

West Ham United vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Match preview

After a slow start to the season, losing their first 4 games, West Ham are now making a rapid ascent up the table. They will be wanting to prove that the 2-0 defeat at Burnley was a mere bump in the road.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for West Ham (Claret) and Brighton (Blue). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for West Ham (Claret) and Brighton (Blue). Click to expand.

Looking at the graph above, you can see this improvement under Pellegrini in the underlying numbers. This rolling average of their expected goal difference rapidly improved from their poor start and peaked on matchday 19 for them.

This means that, on average, they are creating chances equal to, or better than, their opponents over any 5 game sequences. This in turn, should result in them scoring more and conceding less than opponents and therefore gaining more points, by and large.

Brighton’s graph tells quite a different story. They haven’t trended above 0 all season so far, although they are now at their peak a touch below that line. The concern for Chris Hughton may be that they are achieving results that can’t be sustained with their underlying numbers.

Their wins against Palace, Wolves, Newcastle, West Ham and Manchester United are perhaps all good examples of this. Matches where, based on the balance of chances created, they would probably be expected to pick up 4 to 6 points ordinarily; yet collected 15.

Of course, the table doesn’t lie. Once a game is finished and points are on the table, expected goals models cannot take them away from you. However, they can sometimes provide a word of caution when a side may have been over performing.

West Ham United vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Ones to Watch

Graph showing the Key Men for both sides in terms of build-up play (width) and finishing phase (height) for West Ham (Claret) and Brighton (Blue). Click to expand.

Graph showing the Key Men for both sides in terms of build-up play (width) and finishing phase (height) for West Ham (Claret) and Brighton (Blue). Click to expand.

It is quite clear from this what we should expect from these two teams. West Ham players will likely dominate possession. They are all more involved in build-up play.

Everything goes through their central midfield – whether that is Rice, Noble or Obiang. They tend to build-up more down the right with Snodgrass & Zabaleta than on the left with Cresswell/Masuaku.

With Brighton, their defenders are more involved in their build-up play, hinting that they will likely play more direct. Murray, Knockaert & March are the trio who are most involved in the finishing phase to create and score chances.

West Ham United team news vs Brighton and Hove Albion

LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 01: Manuel Pellegrini, Manager of West Ham United looks on prior to the Premier League match between West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers at London Stadium on September 1, 2018 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Stephen Pond/Getty Images)

Manuel Lanzini, Carlos Sanchez, Ryan Fredericks, Fabian Balbuena, Jack Wilshere, Winston Reid and Andriy Yarmolenko remain on the long-term injury list for West Ham.

Javier Hernandez has missed the last two matches due to a tight hamstring. While they remain hopeful of a quick return, it is unlikely we see him in action until after the FA Cup 3rd round.

Pablo Zabaleta has been absent from the last 2 match day squads also, due to illness. However, they hope he will be available for selection here.

Marko Arnautovic completed his return from injury with a start in the 2-0 defeat at Burnley. Despite a poor showing in which he lasted 73 minutes, he is expected to continue in attack for West Ham as he looks to rediscover his match sharpness.

Manuel Pellegrini may look to ring the changes following the disappointing performance at Turf Moor. Grady Diangana, Andy Carroll, Arthur Masuaku and Pedro Obiang are amongst those vying for a starting spot here.

Brighton and Hove Albion team news vs West Ham United

Chris Hughton

CRAWLEY, WEST SUSSEX – JULY 22: Chris Hughton, manager of Brighton looks on ahead of the Pre Season Friendly match between Crawley Town and Brighton & Hove Albion at Broadfield Stadium on July 22, 2017 in Crawley, West Sussex. (Photo by Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images)

Jose Izquierdo remains their only injury concern with a knee injury. He is expected to return after their FA Cup 3rd Round match at Bournemouth.

Mathew Ryan and Alireza Jahanbakhsh are still unavailable due to their involvement in the AFC Asian Cup.

Having picked up a well-deserved 3 points against Everton last time out, Chris Hughton will likely opt for the same starting XI here on Wednesday.

However, should he decide to rotate for some fresh legs, Anthony Knockaert and Yves Bissouma will be at the front of the line of players hoping to benefit.

Predicted West Ham United team vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Predicted West Ham United team vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Predicted West Ham United team vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Predicted Brighton and Hove Albion team vs West Ham United

Predicted Brighton and Hove Albion team vs West Ham United

Predicted Brighton and Hove Albion team vs West Ham United

The latest tweets from West Ham United pre-Brighton and Hove Albion

The latest tweets from Brighton and Hove Albion pre-West Ham United

https://twitter.com/OfficialBHAFC/status/1079743022844252160

https://twitter.com/OfficialBHAFC/status/1079733090052907008

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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