Southampton vs Liverpool betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Southampton vs Liverpool prediction: Southampton 0 – 2 Liverpool

Friday night football in the Premier League this week, brings us a match that sees two former Bundesliga managers face each other, on English soil, for the first time.

While it is perceived that Ralph Hasenhüttl and Jürgen Klopp are very familiar with each other, due to their time managing in Germany, the sides they managed only actually met on one occasion.

Back in 2012/13, Klopp took his Dortmund side, who had just won back-to-back Bundesliga titles, to Aalen. There they faced 2.Bundesliga side, Vfr Aalen, in the 2nd Round of the DFB-Pokal and won 1-4 on the night.

This Friday’s game is expected to be a much more even battle.

A rejuvenated Southampton, who have won 9 points from 12 recently, are still not safe from relegation. Therefore, Hasenhüttl, who has been dubbed the Alpine Klopp by the media, won’t be in a charitable mood.

While Liverpool have picked up more points away from home than any other Premier League side this season. Although, they have won only one of their last four on their travels.

Southampton vs Liverpool: Who will win?

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 18: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool acknoweldges the crowd during the Premier League match between Liverpool and Southampton at Anfield on November 18, 2017 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images)

Southampton hadn’t won at home this season until Hasenhüttl’s appointment on 5th December. They won their first home match in charge under him and their home record under his stewardship reads four wins from eight games.

They have just won back-to-back home matches, but can they make it three in a row? They are 13/2 outsiders here, despite home advantage.

When Liverpool last visited St Mary’s Stadium, as league leaders, they were held to a 0-0 draw. Can Southampton put a dent in another Reds title challenge by sharing the points here once again? They are 7/2 to do so.

Liverpool have won each of the last three meetings between these sides by at least a two-goal margin. This includes their previous meeting at Anfield; a match Liverpool won 3-0. They are the 2/5 favourites to make it four in-a-row here.

Southampton vs Liverpool: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

As Danny Ings is ineligible to play against his parent club, Charlie Austin is expected to lead the line in his absence. He is the bookies favourite to get on the scoresheet for Southampton here, despite not scoring in his five appearances against Liverpool in his career to date. He is 11/1 to score first and 7/2 to score at any time.

Sadio Mané returns to Southampton to face his former club. He is yet to score against them in his four appearances for Liverpool since his move.

However, Mané is in clinical form at the moment with seven goals in his last six games, in all competitions. He is 5/1 to score first and 6/4 to score at any time.

Mohamed Salah is in a bit of a goal-scoring rut at the moment for Liverpool. He has gone eight games now without a goal; by some distance the longest stretch since signing for them in 2017.

However, Salah has scored in each of his three career appearances against Southampton to date; four goals in total. Can he get back amongst the goals against a side he loves to score against? Salah is the 3/1 favourite to score first and 5/6 to score at any time.

Southampton vs Liverpool: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) and Actual Points Won (Points) for Liverpool (Red) and Southampton (Gold). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) and Actual Points Won (Points) for Liverpool (Red) and Southampton (Gold). Click to expand.

When a new manager comes into a club that has been struggling, it is quite common to see an immediate lift in results. What has been dubbed the ‘new manager bounce effect’ can be seen when looking at the performances and results of Manchester United under Ole Gunnar Solskjær, or Chelsea under Maurizio Sarri, this season.

The trend with situations that follow this pattern, is we soon after seen a regression to mean. It suggests players get a psychological boost from the change in situation, but quickly regress to their average level once that feeling wears off.

This doesn’t appear to be the case with Southampton though. While their results did immediately improve, this seems more likely due to some minor tactical tweaks made by Hasenhüttl to stop the rot which was causing Southampton to come away from games with nothing, when their play likely deserved more.

Since then, over the last four months, performances have been steadily increasing to a level where they are now expected to perform around par in the league; a mid-table side. Indeed, when you look at the league table for results since Hasenhüttl’s appointment, they would sit comfortably in 10th position picking up approximately 1.5 points per game.

At this rate, not only should they survive relegation, they may be a surprise side in the league next season to challenge those outside the top 6 for qualification to the UEFA Europa League in 2020.

Southampton team news vs Liverpool

Ralph Hasenhutt

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 16: Ralph Hasenhuttl manager of Southampton celebrates the win during the Premier League match between Southampton FC and Arsenal FC at St Mary’s Stadium on December 16, 2018 in Southampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Michael Obafemi (Thigh) and Jannik Vestergaard (Pelvis) remain on the long-term injury list for Southampton.

Danny Ings is also ruled out for Southampton, as he cannot feature against his parent club under the Premier League’s rules regarding intra-league loan deals. He will be a big miss for the Saints, as he is their top scorer this season with seven Premier League goals.

Charlie Austin is expected to lead the line in his absence.

Shane Long continues his recovery from a groin injury. He is back in full team training but he likely isn’t fit to start games at the moment. He is expected to take a place on the bench.

Other than enforced changes, Ralph Hasenhüttl is expected to go with much the same side that won three points at Brighton last weekend.

Liverpool team news vs Southampton

Virgil van Dijk

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – MARCH 03: Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool looks despondent after the Premier League match between Everton FC and Liverpool FC at Goodison Park on March 03, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain continues his work towards achieving full fitness after a year out due to an ACL injury. He is back now in full training but still not available to start games.

Joe Gomez is similarly closing on full fitness after breaking his leg against Burnley earlier in the season. He is also back in full training and nearing a return to the pitch.

Virgil van Dijk was seen with an ice pack strapped to his ankle after the win against Spurs. Klopp confirmed he was back in team training on Tuesday and expected him to be fit to play against his former club.

We may see some rotation in the midfield places, as Klopp’s preferred trio for big games, Wijnaldum, Milner and Henderson, gets broken up to add some incisive passing and creativity to the mix.

Predicted Southampton team vs Liverpool

Predicted Southampton team vs Liverpool

Predicted Southampton team vs Liverpool

Predicted Liverpool team vs Southampton

Predicted Liverpool team vs Southampton

Predicted Liverpool team vs Southampton

The latest tweets from Southampton pre-Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Southampton

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

Thank you!

  • Cut chords: Watch everything (Netflix, BBC iPlayer, Hulu) online using a VPN.
  • Unlock geoblocking: A VPN gives you access to the best content from anywhere in the world.
  • Privacy & security: A VPN keeps your information private, activity encrypted & data anonymous.

Back Southampton at 50/1 or Liverpool at 6/1!