PSG Mbappe

Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester United betting tips: Champions League preview & predictions

Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester United prediction: PSG 2-0 Man United

UEFA Champions League seems to have become synonymous with famous comebacks from 3+ goals in recent seasons.

Roma almost came back from being five goals down to Liverpool in a tie at one-point last season. They already had a reputation for it having done so the previous round, overturning a 4-1 Barcelona 1st leg lead, to go through on aggregate after a 3-0 home win.

We should also acknowledge the one that kicked the comeback era off. The one that gives all sides hope that no task is insurmountable. That no side is unbeatable regardless of their quality. When Deportivo stunned the footballing world to come back from a 4-1 drumming in Milan to go through on away goals, after a 3-0 win at Estadio Riazor.

Milan suffered the same fate a year later, in Istanbul, in the final, at the hands of Liverpool.

However, perhaps the one that will resonate most with United on Wednesday night will be from almost two years ago to the day.

On 8th March 2016, PSG travelled to Barcelona with a comfortable 4-0 advantage from the first leg. Barcelona sensed blood after 3 minutes, when a Luis Suarez header opened the scoring. They knew PSG could be got at.

Got at them they did, with a sensational display including the best second half of football we will probably ever witness. It ended 6-1 on the night. PSG were eliminated. Humiliated.

Can Manchester United humiliate them once again?

Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester United: Who will win?

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 12: Prenel Kimpebe of PSG celebrates after he scores his sides first goal during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 First Leg match between Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain at Old Trafford on February 12, 2019 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)

PSG have won their last 3 matches in the UEFA Champions League. With home advantage, a comfortable lead, and facing a depleted United side due to injury and suspension, they are odds on favourites here to win at 1/2.

Four of the nine visits of English sides to the Parc des Princes have ended in stalemate. Odds of 19/5 are available if you think PSG will shut the game down and get a draw on the night to see them through.

Only once has an English side travelled to Paris and come back victorious in UEFA Competition. Mourinho’s Chelsea winning 0-3 there in 2004/05; a score line that would see United through to the next round here. Odds of 11/2 are available for them to win on the night, in Paris.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester United: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs in domestic league competition, filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs in domestic league competition, filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

In Cavani, Neymar, Pogba and Martial, a lot of the goalscoring talent of both teams will be unavailable for the match.

Kylian Mbappe-Lottin is the man who broke United hearts in Manchester a fortnight ago. He is the top scorer in Ligue 1 this season with 24 goals in just 17 starts and 4 sub appearances. He also has 4 goals in 7 Champions League appearances this season. He is also on fire at the moment with 7 in his last 5 appearances in all competitions for PSG. He is the favourite at 12/5 to score first, or 4/7 to score at any time.

Romelu Lukaku has yet to score for United in the Champions League this season in 6 appearances. However, he is in a fantastic run of form at the moment with a brace in each of his last 2 appearances, including the game-winning goal in each match. Can he show the same killer instinct in France? He is joint-favourite at 11/1 to score first for United, or 10/3 to score at any time.

Marcus Rashford had netted 1 Champions League goal in 7 appearances this seasons. He is also on a poor run of form at United, with just 1 goal in their last 8 matches in all competitions. He is joint-favourite at 11/1 to score first for United, or 10/3 to score at any time.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester United: Match preview

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD), in domestic league competition, for United (Red) and PSG (Blue). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD), in domestic league competition, for United (Red) and PSG (Blue). Click to expand.

Looking at the league form of both sides coming into this fixture, PSG are coming into the match performing at a level as good as at any time this season. They had a bit of a slump when the Neymar – Cavani – Mbappe trident was broken up. However, they have recovered well to find a new system to get the most out of Mbappe over their last 5 games.

In contrast, Solskjær’s United are performing at their lowest point since taking charge after matchday 17.

Whether this was simply a new manager bounce effect that has since waned. Or the exertion of playing a high pressing system, after so long being coached to defend passively, now catching up with them. Or even the mounting injury list, possibly from over exertion also, seeing a squad bereft of depth and quality. Regardless of the why, it leaves United coming into this match with an up-hill task.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester United: Goal-shy United XI?

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 02: Romelu Lukaku of Manchester United reacts after the Group H match of the UEFA Champions League between Manchester United and Valencia at Old Trafford on October 2, 2018 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Regardless of the players selected by Solskjær for this match, his team will go out onto the pitch with no more than 2 goals combined in the Champions League this season.

Goalscoring has been an issue for them in this tournament this season. They have just 7 goals in the Champions League this season; four of which came against Young Boys.

They have failed to score in 3 of their 7 matches this season, including the 1st leg against PSG at Old Trafford. The positive news though, is that their issues with scoring have largely been at home. They have just 1 goal in 4 games at Old Trafford this season, in European competition, in a 1-0 against Young Boys.

Their away record has seen them score in every match so far; 6 in 3 games in total. If United can turn in a performance, in spite of the missing Pogba et al in attack, they will know another David De Gea masterclass should give a chance at the other end.

Paris Saint-Germain team news vs Manchester United

PARIS, FRANCE – NOVEMBER 28: Neymar of Paris Saint-Germain reacts after going down from a challenge during the UEFA Champions League Group C match between Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool at Parc des Princes on November 28, 2018 in Paris, France. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)

Stanley N’Soki (Adductor problems) and Neymar (Foot Injury) remain on the injury list for PSG.

Edinson Cavani is an injury doubt, although he could be named on the bench.

Thomas Tuchel may rest some of Julian Draxler, Thilo Kehrer, Marco Verratti and Juan Bernat. All of whom are one booking away from suspension.

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Thomas Meunier, Leandro Paredes, and Colin Dagba respectively will be hoping to benefit from any rotation aimed at avoiding suspension.

Manchester United team news vs Paris Saint-Germain

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 12: Paul Pogba of Manchester United controls the ball under pressure from Marquinhos of PSG during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 First Leg match between Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain at Old Trafford on February 12, 2019 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)

Manchester United will likely be without up to 10 first-team players in Paris.

Luis Antonio Valencia (Calf Injury), Juan Mata (Hamstring), Jesse Lingard (Hamstring), Matteo Darmian (Injury), Anthony Martial (Groin/Pelvis Injury), Nemanja Matic (Knock) and Ander Herrera (Hamstring) remain on the injury list for United.

Their midfield lynchpin, Paul Pogba, also misses the match after a last minute sending off in the first leg. His absence will likely be felt the most by United on Wednesday evening.

Alexis Sanchez was withdrawn early in the second-half of the weekend win against Southampton. His season could be effectively over, having been ruled out for six to eight weeks with an MCL injury.

Phil Jones missed the match at the weekend with illness. He is likely to recover in time to face PSG. However, Solskjær is likely to prefer Eric Bailly once more in an attempt to combat Mbappe’s pace.

Ashley Young is the only United player who is a yellow card away from one-match suspension.

All this could force him into using a less familiar 3-5-2 shape, as seen after Sanchez’s withdrawal at the weekend.

Predicted Paris Saint-Germain team vs Manchester United

Predicted Paris Saint-Germain team vs Manchester United

Predicted Paris Saint-Germain team vs Manchester United

Predicted Manchester United team vs Paris Saint-Germain

Predicted Manchester United team vs Paris Saint-Germain

Predicted Manchester United team vs Paris Saint-Germain

The latest tweets from Paris Saint-Germain pre-Manchester United

The latest tweets from Manchester United pre-Paris Saint-Germain

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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