Liverpool vs Watford betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Liverpool vs Watford prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Watford

Liverpool return to Anfield to face Watford knowing results, and performances, will need to improve if they want to avoid another trophy-less season.

They have won just 1 of their last 5 games, a run that includes 4 draws, in all competitions. This has allowed 2nd place, Manchester City, to move within 1 point of them in the league table. Something that is feeling a little too close for comfort for Liverpool fans.

Their home form has been solid all season though. They are the only side still unbeaten at home, in the Premier League, this season. They have picked up 35 of 39 points available here at Anfield.

While Watford come into the game, buoyed by their 1-5 rout of Cardiff last time out. They have lost just 1 game from their last 8 and will believe they are a match for anybody on their day.

Perhaps this confidence will play into Liverpool’s hands who seem at their best when teams attack them?

Liverpool vs Watford: Who will win?

Emre Can Golazo v Watford

Emre Can of Liverpool scores the opening goal during the Premier League match between Watford and Liverpool at Vicarage Road on May 1, 2017 in Watford, England. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

Jurgen Klopp has won all 3 of his home matches against Watford since joining Liverpool. He has an aggregate score of 13 goals to 1 across the three games. Unsurprisingly then, Liverpool are the 1/4 bookies favourites to keep that trend going with another 3 points here.

There has never been a draw between these sides in the Premier League era at Anfield. If you believe all records exist to be broken, you can back a draw here at 23/4.

Watford have just 1 win here from 5 visits in the Premier League. Tommy Mooney’s strike on the 3rd game of the season back in 1999 was enough to defeat Gerard Houllier’s Reds 0-1. If you fancy Watford to grab a rare away win here, you can find odds of 12/1 for the rank outsiders.

Liverpool vs Watford: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Mohamed Salah has 6 goals and 2 assists against Watford so far, in just 3 games. With just 1 goal in his last 5 games, Liverpool could use the Egyptian King to find some form at this point in the season. He is the 11/4 favourite to score first here and 2/3 to score at any time.

Sadio Mané failed to score at the weekend for the first time in 5 Premier League games. He will be hoping to get back to having a goal involvement here against a familiar foe. He has scored or assisted a goal in every appearance against Watford since his transfer to Liverpool; 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 games. He is 9/2 to score first and 11/10 to score at any time.

Fresh from his hat-trick against Cardiff, Gerard Deulofeu comes into this match on a high. He has yet to register a goal or assist though in 3 appearances against the Reds. Can he break his duck against them on Wednesday night? He is 18/1 to be first scorer here. Or 11/2 to score at any time.

Liverpool vs Watford: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

The above graph is built using an Expected Goals model. In this instance, it is looking at the difference between Expected Goals For (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) to give us the Difference (xGD).

This is used as a performance indicator given the low scoring nature of football; a way to look at the value of changes being created and given up by each team.

As you can see with Liverpool, they came flying out of the traps with a big home win against West Ham. Since then, their xGD settled at an average of 1.5 where it has hovered and remained fairly consistently all season.

This is to say, on average, Liverpool are creating chances worth 1.5 goals per game more than their opponents at Anfield this season.

Liverpool vs Watford: Focus on the Hornets

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for Watford (Yellow). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for Watford (Yellow). Click to expand.

Looking at Watford now, you can immediately see the concern regarding their away performances. Their performance indicators away from home have been on an almost permanent decline since the start of the season.

They have fallen from being a +1.6xGD side to -0.6xGD side over the course of their 14 away games. It also highlights the importance that having mostly home games at the start of the season was to their flying start.

These performance trends, coupled with Liverpool’s general strength at home this season, as well as
Watford’s struggles against Klopp’s Liverpool at Anfield, all suggest it could be another quiet trip home to Hertfordshire on Wednesday night for the Hornets.

Liverpool team news vs Watford

Roberto Firmino

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 24: Injured Roberto Firmino of Liverpool is replaced by Daniel Sturridge of Liverpool during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Liverpool FC at Old Trafford on February 24, 2019 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

Joe Gomez, Rhian Brewster and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain remain on the long-term injury list for Liverpool.

Dejan Lovren is nearing a return from his thigh injury. Klopp will welcome some defensive depth on the bench here, should he be available.

Roberto Firmino was forced off due to injury in the first half at Old Trafford. Klopp stated the exact nature of the injury is still unclear, therefore he is unlikely to be ready in time to face Watford.

Daniel Sturridge replaced Firmino on Sunday but was poor and had no impact on the game. Xherdan Shaqiri may get the nod here instead.

Trent Alexander-Arnold is expected to return in place of James Milner at right back.

Naby Keita is also expected to return to give Liverpool some crucial penetration in midfield as Klopp
shuffles his squad to keep players fresh.

Watford team news vs Liverpool

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 27: Javi Gracia, Manager of Watford looks on prior to The Emirates FA Cup Fourth Round match between Southampton and Watford at St Mary’s Stadium on January 27, 2018 in Southampton, England. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)

Jose Holebas serves the final game of his suspension for the trip to Liverpool, following his accumulation of 10 yellow cards this season.

Kiko Femenia missed the game at Cardiff as he continues his recovery from a thigh injury. However, he is expected to be available for selection to Javi Gracia here.

However, it is unlikely he will make any changes to the starting XI that destroyed Cardiff 1-5 on Friday night.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Watford

Predicted Liverpool team vs Watford

Predicted Liverpool team vs Watford

Predicted Watford team vs Liverpool

Predicted Watford team vs Liverpool

Predicted Watford team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Watford

The latest tweets from Watford pre-Liverpool

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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