Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino

Liverpool vs Leicester betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Liverpool vs Leicester prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Leicester

There is a feeling among some Liverpool fans that this could be the home match where they slip up and allow Manchester City to close the gap.

That, despite visits of Spurs and Chelsea to come, Leicester are the side Liverpool struggle most against. As are sides managed by Claude Puel.

There may be a little truth behind these statements. His Lyon side took four points from six in the Champions League against Liverpool in 2009/10. His Southampton side won both legs of the League Cup semi-final in 2016/17, both by a 1-0 score-line.

Liverpool also failed to defeat his Southampton side in the Premier League, as they played out a pair of 0-0 draws that season.

However, since taking over at Leicester, Liverpool have won both encounters against Puel’s Leicester 2-1. This includes back in September at the King Power Stadium as Mané and Firmino goals were enough to secure the three points.

In fact, coming into this game, Liverpool have won each of the last three meetings with Leicester. At Anfield, the record is even stronger having taken nineteen of twenty-one points off them at Anfield since 2000.

So, while there have been some struggles for Liverpool as visitors to Leicester, it seems at Anfield they have usually taken the lions share of the points.

Liverpool vs Leicester: Who will win?

Dejan Lovren & Harry Maguire

LEICESTER, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 23: Dejan Lovren of Liverpool and Harry Maguire of Leicester City in action during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Liverpool at The King Power Stadium on September 23, 2017 in Leicester, England. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

Liverpool have won ten of their eleven home matches in the Premier League this season. Can they make it eleven wins on Wednesday? They are 2/9 bookies favourites to do so.

Three of the last seven matches featuring a Claude Puel managed side against Liverpool have ended in a draw. All others have been decided by just a one goal margin. Will another cagey affair end in stalemate here? Odds of 6/1 are available if you believe it will.

Liverpool are undefeated in their last thirty-two home matches in the Premier League; the longest undefeated run in the top five European leagues. They are also the only Premier League side who remain undefeated at home this season. Can Leicester bring those records crashing down with a win here? They are huge 14/1 outsiders to do so.

Liverpool vs Leicester: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Mohammed Salah has three goals in three games against Leicester in his career in English football. He has nine league goals in eight games recently and three in his last two Premier League games. He is the bookies favourite to open the scoring here at 11/4 or 4/6 to score at any time.

Roberto Firmino scored the winning goal in the game on Match-day 4 between these sides. He is also in good form with five goals in his last four Premier League games. Can he keep his scoring run going with another here? He is 11/10 to score at any time here and 9/2 as first goal-scorer.

Jamie Vardy has seven goals in his last five games against Liverpool; the most against any club in his career. He wasn’t involved when the clubs met earlier in the season due to suspension. Can he get back to scoring against Liverpool on Wednesday? He is 7/2 to score at any time and 12/1 as first goal-scorer.

Liverpool vs Leicester: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Leicester (Blue) and Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Leicester (Blue) and Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

Things are not looking good for Claude Puel at the moment on or off the pitch. He is under a lot of pressure from some sections of the crowd who are itching for him to be replaced following three consecutive defeats.

The underlying numbers above hint towards where their problems may lie. Their expected goals against have rocketed up recently to the highest point it has been all season. While, at the other end of the pitch, their expected goals for dipped to around the 1.0 level at the start of December where it has remained ever since.

In essence, they are giving up chances worth 1.5 goals to their opponent every game while only creating chances worth 1.0 goals themselves. This suggests they will need a huge performance in both boxes to pick up as many points as sides around them in the table.

Liverpool vs Leicester: Performance in both boxes

Bar chart showing all Premier League goalkeepers to have played at least 630 minutes. Alisson and Schmeichel are highlighted in Red and Blue respectively. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing all Premier League goalkeepers to have played at least 630 minutes. Alisson and Schmeichel are highlighted in Red and Blue respectively. Click to Expand.

We discussed above the goal-scorers involved in this game, but what of the guys trying to stop them?

We can see here that Alisson is still the man to beat in the Premier League. Roughly only 1-in-5 shots on target against Liverpool will result in a goal. He is also very precise with distribution in his own half, second only to Ederson.

This means he isn’t contributing to the shots his side will face, as some keepers do, by turning possession over as his team transitions into their attacking shape and are open to be countered against.

Whereas, Schmeichel has had a poor season after a strong World Cup in Russia. His saves-per-goal ratio is less than half that of Alisson. Only four first choice Premier League goalkeepers have worse numbers so far this season.

Liverpool team news vs Leicester

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 02: Jurgen Klopp, Manager of Liverpool gives the thumbs up to his players during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Everton FC at Anfield on December 02, 2018 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Joe Gomez, Rhian Brewster and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain remain on the long-term injury list for Liverpool.

James Milner is suspended following his sending off for two yellow cards against Crystal Palace. With Clyne on loan, should Alexander-Arnold miss out, we may see Rafael Camacho make his full Premier League debut here.

Jurgen Klopp stated that “Trent Alexander-Arnold is stable at the moment and it’s just about pain now. Is he ready for Leicester? I don’t know, we will find out.”

Georgino Wijnaldum is back in training after a knee injury kept him out against Palace. He is expected to return in central midfield in place of Henderson, who will move to the bench.

Fabinho and Virgil van Dijk have been struggling to be involved in training this week due to illness and will be assessed before the match. Both are expected to start though.

Dejan Lovren has made a full recovery now from his thigh injury and is expected to be involved again against Leicester, albeit from the bench.

Leicester team news vs Liverpool

LEICESTER, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 29: Claude Puel, Manager of Leicester City reacts during the Premier League match between Leicester City and Everton at The King Power Stadium on October 29, 2017 in Leicester, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Daniel Amartey remains Leicester’s only long-term injury problem. He had successful surgery on his ankle before Christmas and is expected to be out until March.

Harry Maguire was withdrawn just after half-time in the 4-3 defeat at Wolves. Puel stated after the game that it was (a problem with) his leg. While it was nothing serious, he could not continue in the game. Should he fail to recover in time, Jonny Evans will start in his absence.

James Maddison, Harvey Barnes and Demarai Gray are competing for the two starting spots open in attack. Gray and Maddison were both heavily involved in Leicester’s goals against Wolves and are expected to get the nod.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Leicester

(Trent Alexander Arnold was all but ruled out of the game by Jurgen Klopp in his pre-match presser. Expect Fabinho at right back and Jordan Henderson in midfield.)

Predicted Liverpool team vs Leicester

Predicted Liverpool team vs Leicester

Predicted Leicester team vs Liverpool

Predicted Leicester team vs Liverpool

Predicted Leicester team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Leicester

The latest tweets from Leicester pre-Liverpool

https://twitter.com/LCFC/status/1089974139815833602

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

Get notified!
About the best football betting tips from industry experts!
Thank you!

Enormous odds on Liverpool to beat Leicester: 25/1!!!