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Liverpool vs Fulham betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Liverpool vs Fulham prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Fulham

Liverpool have won the last 4 encounters between these two clubs. In fact of Fulham 15 visits to Anfield, only once have they left victorious. That victory came in the 2011/12 season when captain Martin Skrtel scored an early o.g. in a 0-1 defeat. Jordan Henderson is the only remaining player from both sides in with a chance of starting this game.

Fulham are unlikely to bag a second win on Sunday. They have won just once in the Premier League this season. They are currently on a 8 games winless streak and have lost their last 6 in all competitions.

Whereas Liverpool are undefeated in their last 26 home matches in the Premier League.
Slavisa Jokanovic, is under pressure to turn things around and many feel a heavy defeat here could be the final nail in the coffin of his time at Fulham.

LONDON, ENGLAND – AUGUST 26: Jean Michael Seri of Fulham celebrates after scoring his team’s first goal during the Premier League match between Fulham FC and Burnley FC at Craven Cottage on August 26, 2018 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Henry Browne/Getty Images)

Liverpool vs Fulham: Who will win?

Liverpool are big favourites to pick up another 3 points here to maintain their pressure on Manchester City at the top. They are 1/10 for the win.

If you feel Fulham can be the side to upset the odds to end that 26 streak unbeaten run? You can get fantastic odds then of 22/1.

Even a point would be a fantastic result for Jokanovic and earn him a reprieve as manager. There has only been 2 draws in the last 20 meetings between the sides. You can get odds of 8/1 if you think we will see one here this Sunday though.

There have been 40 goals in Fulham’s 11 games this season. Plus the last 4 meetings of these two sides all contained at least 4 goals. Therefore 1/4 odds of this one also being over 2.5 goals may be a safe bet.

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 26: Daniel Sturridge of Liverpool celebrates after he scores his sides first goal during the Carabao Cup Third Round match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield on September 26, 2018 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images)

Liverpool vs Fulham: Who will score?

Sadio Mané is Liverpool’s top scorer in the league with 6 goals. However, he has only scored in 1 of the last 6 league games. He is 4/1 to score first and 8/11 to score at any time.

Mohamed Salah has 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 Liverpool games. He is 11/5 to score first and 1/3 to score at any time.

Daniel Sturridge is the all-time top scorer in this tie with 4 goals in 3 games. He is available at 5/2 to be first or last goal scorer here and 2/5 to score at any time.

Between them, Aleksandar Mitrovic & André Schürrle have scored 9 of Fulham’s 11 goals this season.
Mitrovic is their top scorer with 5 goals. However, he has failed to score in his last 6 games in all competitions. Can he can repeat the feat of his fellow countryman, Milan Pavlov, from midweek? He 16/1 to score first and 15/4 to score anytime.

His strike partner, Schürrle, hasn’t scored in 3 games in all competitions. Odds of 11/2 are available for him to break that streak here and 22/1 to do so as first scorer.

Liverpool vs Fulham: Match preview

Tactically, Fulham are a very interesting side in the Premier League. Jokanovic seems to want to follow in the footsteps of coaches like Marcelo Bielsa (Athletic Bilbao) and Quique Setién (Real Betis Balompié).

To take a smaller club and have them able to go toe-to-toe with the top sides. All while playing aesthetically pleasing football. He even has one benefit that neither of the other two had – enough money to buy a new team.

From the start of the season, the plan was very clear. They were going to press high. They were going to counter quickly when they won the ball. They would also be comfortable keeping the ball in the opponents half and opening them up should the quick attack not be on. With midfielders like Jean Michael Seri & Tom Cairney, they certainly have the technical quality in there to do so.

Even as recently as the Arsenal match, you could see them pressing the ball near the Arsenal box. They even won the ball a few times high that directly resulted in shots on goal. André-Frank Zambo Anguissa’s interception in the 5th minute and Ryan Sessegnon’s in the 41st being good examples.

So Why Are They Bottom Then?

Firstly, any new tactical system takes time to bed in. In addition, new players will take time to get accustomed to all the changes in their lives when moving to a new club. Jurgen Klopp, Sebastien Kehl and Ilkay Gundogan have all talked about needing 6 months or more to adjust to his pressing-based football.

So while there are those rare moments when things click and it works, they are the exception. All too often, they press high and leave either spaces to exploit between midfield and defence, or space in behind. Which means sides always have an easy out-ball to escape their press.

This means their defence is being exposed and opened up all too easily. This is reflected in their expected goals against (or xGA) which is the second highest in the league.

Chart showing the goals Fulham have conceded (gold) vs what they should expect to concede based on quality of chances allowed (grey)

Chart showing the goals Fulham have conceded (gold) vs what they should expect to concede based on quality of chances allowed (grey)

As you can see here, they are not having those games where you shut down the opponent through pressing. Every game they are giving up the chances to score at least 1, but usually 2 or 3 goals.

It is also no surprise that they are now onto their 3rd goalkeeper for the season either. While they are giving up chances worth around 2.2 goals against per game, they are actually conceding 2.8 goals per game. A 24.5% increase, or roughly 6 extra goals so far this season.

Are They Losing Confidence in the System?

Chart showing the generally downward trend for Fulham in terms of passes in the opponents half

Chart showing the generally downward trend for Fulham in terms of passes in their own half

At the other end of the pitch, it is quite noticeable that the amount of passes they are completing in their own half is trending downwards also. It is possible some of the players are looking to just get the ball into Mitrovic high up the pitch quickly. That is what big #9 target men are for, right?

Therefore the gradual build-up play to then attack and attempt to score at the right moment may be abandoned for a more direct approach.

Could Liverpool Exploit This?

What is interesting is this Liverpool side this season is more inclined to invite sides onto them, particularly when ahead.

Chart showing the generally downward trend for Liverpool in terms of defensive actions in the opponents half

Chart showing the generally downward trend for Liverpool in terms of defensive actions in the opponents half

Here you can see the number of defensive actions Liverpool are having in the opponents half is decreasing. If this trend continues at the weekend, the hope will be Fulham will press up once again.

This will leave Liverpool space between the lines to exploit and counter into similar to how they did against West Ham in the first game of the season.

That day, Naby Keita was involved in 3 of the 4 big chances they created (the other was a corner). Firmino would pull Noble up the pitch towards his own goal and Keita would attack that space in behind him.

It is for this reason I think Liverpool will play somewhat narrower than usual here with more of a Leipzig-esque 4-2-2-2 look. Keita will then be crucial in exploiting those spaces Fulham give up with their high press between the lines, or picking out Salah with through balls in behind.

Liverpool team news vs Fulham

BELGRADE, SERBIA – NOVEMBER 06: Manager Jurgen Klopp of Liverpool looks on prior to the Group C match of the UEFA Champions League between Red Star Belgrade and Liverpool at Rajko Mitic Stadium on November 06, 2018 in Belgrade, Serbia. (Photo by Srdjan Stevanovic/Getty Images)

Following their disastrous performance in Belgrade, Jurgen Klopp is expected to ring the changes for this one.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain remains out for the foreseeable future following his knee surgery.

Jordan Henderson is nearing a return after missing around three weeks with a thigh injury.

Nathaniel Clyne & Dejan Lovren are also expected to be available for selection after missing out recently due to illness.

Joe Gomez picked up a minor achilles injury and faces a late fitness test.

Likewise, Trent Alexander-Arnold picked up a knock against Red Star and will face a late fitness test to determine if he can play.

Xherdan Shaqiri is expected to start after being left in Liverpool for the Champions League match. The club had concerns over his safety due to the political nature of his celebration against Serbia for Switzerland.

Naby Keita is also expected to start his first match since the game against Manchester City.

Fulham team news vs Liverpool

LONDON, ENGLAND – APRIL 27: Fulham Manager Slavisa Jokanovic celebrates at the end of the Sky Bet Championship match between Fulham and Sunderland at Craven Cottage on April 27, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Kevin McDonald has been ruled out with a muscular injury.

Joe Bryan will also miss the game due to a hamstring injury picked up a month ago.

Aside from that, they have a clean bill of health.

Cyrus Christie may start this game after coming in at half time in place of Timothy Fosu-Mensah. The
Manchester United loanee scored an own goal which ultimately won the game for Huddersfield.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Fulham

Predicted Liverpool team vs Fulham

Predicted Liverpool team vs Fulham

Predicted Fulham team vs Liverpool

Predicted Fulham team vs Liverpool

Predicted Fulham team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre Fulham

The latest tweets from Fulham pre Liverpool

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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Massive odds on Liverpool to beat Fulham: 25/1!!!!