Mohamed Salah non celebration after Liverpool goal v Chelsea

Liverpool vs Chelsea betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

Liverpool welcome Chelsea to Anfield for what many are billing as a title decider. The biggest hurdle, and the one most likely to cause Liverpool to stumble, in this title race. For Liverpool fans, it must feel like déjà vu.

Towards the end of April, during the 2013/14 season, Liverpool were battling with Manchester City for the title. They welcomed Chelsea to Anfield on the back of an eleven-game winning run. That run was ended decisively by Chelsea.

The match will always be remembered for Steven Gerrard’s slip that saw Demba Ba race away to score the first in a 0-2 Chelsea win. Liverpool never recovered from that point and they watched as Manchester City lifted the title a few weeks later.

However, that was two different teams, under two different managers and, as Jurgen Klopp was at pains to point out on Friday, will have no bearing on what happens on Sunday.

Liverpool vs Chelsea: Who will win?

Roberto Firmino

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – APRIL 09: Roberto Firmino of Liverpool celebrates after scoring his team’s second goal during the UEFA Champions League Quarter Final first leg match between Liverpool and Porto at Anfield on April 09, 2019 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Liverpool have won fourteen of their sixteen matches at Anfield this season, in the Premier League. They remain the only club undefeated at home, in this competition. However, they have failed to beat Chelsea in each of the last five attempts. They are 4/6 favourites to exercise those 2013/14 demons here, against Chelsea, with a win.

Seven of the last eleven matches between these two sides have finished a draw, at the end of ninety minutes. This includes three of the last four Premier League matches between them. Another draw seems good value at 16/5 here.

Chelsea have won in each of their last three matches, in the Premier League. However, Liverpool are undefeated in their last 37 league matches at Anfield. They are 17/5 outsiders to be the ones to end that undefeated streak here.

Liverpool vs Chelsea: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

After six games without a goal, in the Premier League, Mohamed Salah found his scoring boots once again last week, with a goal against Southampton. He is 10/11 to follow that up with another here on Sunday; 10/3 to do so as first scorer.

Naby Keita finally got off the mark for Liverpool with a goal against Southampton last weekend. He followed that up with his side’s first goal, against Porto, in midweek. He is 11/2 to continue this scoring streak into three games. 16/1 to do so as first scorer.

Eden Hazard turned in a master-class against West Ham on Monday night, scoring both goals for his side in a 2-0 win. He has seven goals for club and country in his last eight games and has already scored in both games against Liverpool this season. He is 11/5 to grab another here against the Reds; 7/1 to do so as first scorer.

Liverpool vs Chelsea: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference (NP xGD) and Actual Points won (Points) for Liverpool (Red) and Chelsea (Blue). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference (NP xGD) and Actual Points won (Points) for Liverpool (Red) and Chelsea (Blue). Click to expand.

They say the league table doesn’t lie. In that case, Liverpool are a side that are sixteen points and thirty-two goal difference better than Chelsea.

That is perhaps true over the course of the last thirty-three games to get to this point. However, is it a reflection of where the two sides are today?

As recently as just five weeks ago, it felt like Chelsea under Sarri were on a road to nowhere. This was backed up by the data which shows their points per game on a steady descent over the course of the season from an average of 2.5 points per game (a ninety-five points season) to 1.5 points per game (fifty-seven points season), then sliding even below that.

Over the last five to seven games though, we are seeing the Spring shoots of recovery in their performance line (Expected Goal Difference), which was trending below zero. Results have then followed, with them winning each of their last four games, in all competitions.

Coming into Sunday’s game, the two teams currently look very evenly matched. Both sides trending between 1.0 to 1.5 Expected Goal Difference per game. As a result, they are averaging between 2.0 and 2.5 points per game; title challenging form.

This means Sunday’s game will likely come down to fine margins. For Liverpool, home advantage, the desire of the crowd to will a different outcome to 2013/14 and perhaps a vociferous reaction to the treatment of one of their own this week, could be enough to give them the edge in this game.

Liverpool team news vs Chelsea

Joe Gomez

BIRKENHEAD, ENGLAND – JULY 12: Joe Gomez of Liverpool looks on from the bench during a pre-season friendly match between Tranmere Rovers and Liverpool at Prenton Park on July 12, 2017 in Birkenhead, England. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Adam Lallana look likely to miss the game for Liverpool, as they battle back to full fitness.

Andrew Robertson missed Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Porto through suspension on Tuesday. He is expected to return to the starting XI on Sunday in place of James Milner, at left-back.

Competition is fierce for a starting berth in Klopp’s midfield at the moment. Georginio Wijnaldum was rested midweek, having looked low on energy the past few games. However, he seems to be Klopp’s first name on the teamsheet, especially in big games. Jordan Henderson has looked revitalised since being moved forward to a number 8 role. While Naby Keita has scored in successive Liverpool matches.

There is also competition for places at centre-half once again. Dejan Lovren replaced Joel Matip in midweek for his first start since the beginning of January. Matip is expected to come back into the team here, though Joe Gomez is back in contention after a long spell out injured.

Chelsea team news vs Liverpool

CARDIFF, WALES – MARCH 31: Ruben Loftus-Cheek of Chelsea celebrates after he scores his sides second goal during the Premier League match between Cardiff City and Chelsea FC at Cardiff City Stadium on March 31, 2019 in Cardiff, United Kingdom. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Marco van Ginkel (Knee) and Ethan Ampadu (Back) are Chelsea’s only injury concerns at present. Both are ruled out for Sunday’s match.

Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri made numerous changes for Thursday’s 0-1 win against Slavia Prague. He is expected to do so once again here and recall most, if not all, of the starting XI that dispatched with West Ham, on Monday.

Marcos Alonso scored the winning goal in midweek. However, Sarri has preferred Emerson in the league as of late, and is expected to win the battle between the pair to start here.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek is finally starting games for Chelsea in the Premier League. However, will Sarri look to Mateo Kovacic or Ross Barkley once again to deal with such a dangerous opponent?

Predicted Liverpool team vs Chelsea

Predicted Liverpool team vs Chelsea

Predicted Liverpool team vs Chelsea

Predicted Chelsea team vs Liverpool

Predicted Chelsea team vs Liverpool

Predicted Chelsea team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Chelsea

The latest tweets from Chelsea pre-Liverpool

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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