Liverpool vs Burnley betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Liverpool vs Burnley prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Burnley

Liverpool were the victors when these sides met earlier in the season by a scoreline of 1-3.

However, it was events after the match that grabbed most of the headlines. Liverpool’s young centre back, Joe Gomez, was brought off early in the game with a broken leg.

After the match, Klopp commented that on the first sliding tackle he spoke to the 4th official. He explained that we know now slide tackles on wet pitches over 6 or 7 yards are dangerous, the player can just take a step and make a normal challenge instead.

Then seeing a young player break his leg later in the game from such a challenge had left him seething. He stopped just short of blaming Burnley, and by extension, Sean Dyche for the injury.

The match itself was quite a dull affair, lit up by fleeting moments of brilliance by Naby Keita. It remains his best performance for the Reds since his big money move in the summer.

However, Liverpool had to come from a goal down to win the game 1-3. The introductions of Roberto Firmino, who scored the 2nd, and Mohamed Salah, who created the 3rd, finally swung the game Liverpool’s way.

Liverpool vs Burnley: Who will win?

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 09: Georginio Wijnaldum of Liverpool celebrates after scoring his team’s second goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and AFC Bournemouth at Anfield on February 9, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)

Liverpool are the only Premier League side still undefeated at home this season; 35 games in total dating back to the previous season. They have won 12 of their 14 matches at Anfield this season. Odds of 1/7 are available for them to add another scalp to the pile here.

The sides shared the points when they met here last season. They played out a 1-1 draw with Scott Arfield and Mohamed Salah grabbing the goals. If you feel Burnley can repeat the feat here, a draw is available at 13/2.

Burnley have never won at Anfield in the Premier League era. Their only ever win here coming in the old First Division, 45 years ago, by a score-line of 0-1. Their outsider odds of 16/1 reflect the bookies belief in that record continuing at least one more year.

Liverpool vs Burnley: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Mohamed Salah is Liverpool’s top scorer this season in the Premier League, with 17 goals. He was rested for their visit to Burnley earlier in the season, yet still managed to create Liverpool’s 3rd goal of the game in his brief cameo.

Salah has now gone 3 Premier League games without a goal for Liverpool; the longest goalless streak since signing for the club. He is 13/5 favourite to open the scoring and 8/15 to score at any time.

Sadio Mané has been in fantastic form for Liverpool as of late. He has 6 goals in his last 5 games in the Premier League at Anfield. He is 4/1 to open the scoring and 10/11 to score at any time.

Ashley Barnes is Burnley’s top scorer this season in the Premier League, with 9 goals. He has also been in fantastic form lately, with 5 goals in his last 6 Premier League matches. He has 2 goals in 8 appearances against Liverpool in his career, in all competitions. If you feel he can add another here, he is 16/1 to score first and 9/2 at any time.

Liverpool vs Burnley: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Liverpool (Red) and Burnley (Purple). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Liverpool (Red) and Burnley (Purple). Click to expand.

‘A tale of two halves’ is perhaps one of the most tired clichés’ in football. Yet, in this instance, it accurately depicts Burnley’s season to date.

We can see from the Expected Goals model that Burnley have had a remarkable turn around in performances when comparing the first half of the season (up to matchday 19) with the last ~10 games.

They were expecting to concede an average of 1.5 to 2.5 goals per game based on the chanced they were giving up. This has dropped to around 1.0 since Matchday 21.

At the other end of the pitch, they were only creating chances worth an average of a goal, or less, per game. This has since risen to between the 1.0 to 2.0 goals per game mark over the last ~10 games.

With Liverpool, we can see their performances, especially defensively, have remained much more consistent throughout the season. What has changed, seems to be that instead of scraping a result by the odd goal, they are now drawing games.

Perhaps that little bit of luck they had before has now deserted them? It is likely they will need to find it once again, and fast, should they wish to reel in Manchester City from here.

Liverpool team news vs Burnley

Roberto Firmino

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 24: Injured Roberto Firmino of Liverpool is replaced by Daniel Sturridge of Liverpool during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Liverpool FC at Old Trafford on February 24, 2019 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

Dejan Lovren, Joe Gomez, Rhian Brewster and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain remain on the injury list for Liverpool.

Alex Oxlade Chamberlain is now participating in 70% of sessions and is closing on a first-team return but will not be considered here. The former Arsenal man was taken off as a precaution in an Under-23 win over Derby.

Roberto Firmino was only fit enough for a place on the bench in last weekend’s Merseyside derby. With an additional week to recover from his ankle knock, he is expected to return to the starting XI here.

Given the disappointing performance of Liverpool’s midfield against Everton, Naby Keita is expected to return against Burnley to offer some penetration from central midfield.

Burnley team news vs Liverpool

BURNLEY, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 26: Sean Dyche, Manager of Burnley looks on prior to the Premier League match between Burnley FC and Newcastle United at Turf Moor on November 26, 2018 in Burnley, United Kingdom. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

Aaron Lennon, Jonathan Walters and Steven Defour remain on the injury list for Burnley.

However, Sean Dyche has no new injury concerns for his side.

Despite the disappointing result last time out, losing at home to Palace 1-3, Burnley’s performance was quite positive. Therefore, Dyche may chose to stick with the same side here.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Burnley

Predicted Liverpool team vs Burnley

Predicted Liverpool team vs Burnley

Predicted Burnley team vs Liverpool

Predicted Burnley team vs Liverpool

Predicted Burnley team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Burnley

The latest tweets from Burnley pre-Liverpool

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

Why you need a VPN?
Cut chords:
Watch everything (Netflix, BBC iPlayer, Hulu) online using a VPN.
Unlock geoblocking:
A VPN gives you access to the best content from anywhere in the world.
Privacy & security:
A VPN keeps your information private, activity encrypted & data anonymous.
Just $6.67 a month + 3 months free!

MoPlay's new customer offer: Bet £10 Get £30!