Mohamed Salah Liverpool

Liverpool vs Bayern Munich betting tips: Champions League preview & predictions

Liverpool vs Bayern Munich prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Bayern Munich

Tuesday night’s UEFA Champions League action offers arguably the tie of the round between two of the tournament’s most successful clubs.

Bayern hold five Champions League wins, the last of which came in 2013 against Jürgen Klopp’s Dortmund in the final. While last season’s beaten finalists, Liverpool, have also won it five times. The most recent of which being that famous night in Istanbul in 2005.

However, despite their histories in this competition, Tuesday night marks only the second time they meet head-to-head in the UEFA Champions League.

They previously met in the semi-finals of the competition back in 1981. Ray Kennedy scoring the vital away goal to see them through 1-1 on aggregate. Liverpool then going on to beat Real Madrid 1-0 in the final thanks to Alan Kennedy’s late goal.

Liverpool vs Bayern Munich: Who will win?

WATFORD, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 24: Andy Robertson of Liverpool in action during the Premier League match between Watford FC and Liverpool FC at Vicarage Road on November 24, 2018 in Watford, United Kingdom. (Photo by Alex Broadway/Getty Images)

Liverpool were the winners the last time these two teams met in competitive action. John Arne Riise, Emile Heskey and Michael Owen were the scorers as Liverpool clinched the UEFA Super Cup in Monaco back in 2001.

They also met in pre-season at the start of the 2017/18 season, with Liverpool thrashing Bayern 0-3 in front of their own fans. They are the bookmakers home favourites here at 6/5 to give themselves something to hold onto in Munich.

The only time these sides were drawn against each other in this competition saw a 0-0 draw at Anfield, followed up with a 1-1 draw in Munich. The sides are 11/4 to keep this run going with another stalemate here.

Bayern Munich have one victory against Liverpool from the five competitive matches between the two teams. That victory came in the, now defunct UEFA Cup Winner’s Cup last 16, back in 1971. Bayern legends, Gerd Müller (x2) and Uli Hoeneß, scoring the goals as they defeated Liverpool 3-1 in Munich. They were eliminated in the semi-finals by eventual champions, Glasgow Rangers. They are 9/4 to pick up a first win at Anfield on Tuesday night.

Liverpool vs Bayern Munich: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs in their respective domestic leagues. Filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs in their respective domestic leagues. Filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Robert Lewandowski is this season’s top scorer in the competition with eight goals; two ahead of Lionel Messi in 2nd place. However, he has not been his usual clinical-self in front of goal lately, with just one goal in his last four games, in all competitions. He is still the bookies favourite to open the scoring here at 10/3, or 5/6 to score at any time.

As shown in the graphic above, Mohamed Salah is the top scorer from both teams in their respective domestic leagues this season. He also has three goals from six Champions League appearances to add to his seventeen league goals. He is 4/1 to score first here and 11/10 to score at any time.

Sadio Mané left a mark on this competition last season with ten goals in eleven appearances. He was also the only player to score in every round of the UEFA Champions League last season, including the final. However, he has just one goal from six appearances in the group stages this season. He will be hoping he can carry his Premier League scoring form into this game, as he has scored in each of the last four Premier League games. He is 13/2 to score first and 15/8 to score at any time.

Liverpool vs Bayern Munich: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Liverpool (Red) and Bayern Munich (Black) in their respect domestic leagues. Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Liverpool (Red) and Bayern Munich (Black) in their respect domestic leagues. Click to expand.

No manager in world football will understand Bayern’s problems this season as much as Jürgen Klopp.

Dortmund’s 2014/15 season saw the side continue to create good scoring chances while limiting their opponents in terms of shot quantity and quality at the other end. However, their performance in both boxes let them down. They were dead last in the league after matchday 19, two points adrift of Freiburg, Stuttgart and Hertha Berlin.

They recovered in the second half of the season to finish in 7th please, yet still conceded 42 goals (26% underperformance) and scored just 47 (13% underperformance).

While Bayern’s struggles this season hasn’t seen them slide into the relegation zone, the above issues will all sound eerily familiar. As you can see from the goal-scorers graphic above, Lewandowski has been underperforming the expected goal model by 37%. He has 11 non-penalty goals and a non-penalty xG of 17.5.

At the other end, it has often felt this season like every shot Neuer faces will result in a goal. He has made just 1.27 saves per goal conceded this season, compared to the 3.53 saves per goal of Alisson. This has seen Bayern concede 26 goals from an xGA of 19.5, an underperformance of 33%.

In contrast, Liverpool have been consistently out-performing the xG models. They have 59 goals from an xG of 55 (7% over-performance) and have conceded just 15 league goals with an xGA of 20.5 (27% over-performance).

This all suggests that while the two teams appear quite evenly matched, if their performances in both boxes this season holds true, it will be advantage Liverpool on Tuesday night.

Liverpool vs Bayern Munich: Key Man

Naby Keita

Naby Keita (R) of RB Leipzig celebrates after scoring his team’s first goal with Bruma (L) of RB Leipzig during the Bundesliga match between RB Leipzig and FC Bayern Muenchen at Red Bull Arena on March 18, 2018 in Leipzig, Germany. (Photo by Ronny Hartmann/Bongarts/Getty Images)

Naby Keita is just starting to come into form for Liverpool having taken the first half of the season to adapt to his new surrounding and tactical instructions.

He was a constant thorn in the side of Bayern in his matches for Leipzig against them. The fact he has demonstrated how to create spaces to open up their defence in the past, could be crucial to Liverpool’s success here.

Liverpool team news vs Bayern Munich

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 02: Jurgen Klopp, Manager of Liverpool gives the thumbs up to his players during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Everton FC at Anfield on December 02, 2018 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Joe Gomez, Rhian Brewster and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain remain on the long-term injury list for Liverpool. Although, both Brewster and Chamberlain participated in Liverpool’s training camp in Marbella last week.

Dejan Lovren is still struggling with a thigh injury. He will be given every chance to make this game. However, Klopp is preparing on the basis that he will not be available.

Virgil van Dijk is suspended for the first leg. This leaves Klopp very light on numbers at centre back with only Joel Matip available for the match. Fabinho is expected to partner him at the back if Dejan Lovren fails to recover from injury in time.

Trent Alexander-Arnold returned to action as a substitute against Bournemouth, playing the final thirteen minutes. He is expected to make his first start in five weeks on Tuesday.

Xherdan Shaqiri has been struggling with an abdominal strain and missed the match against Bournemouth as a result. He is expected to return to the bench against his former club.

Roberto Firmino missed training on Monday and is suffering from a virus. Similar to Wijnaldum against Bournemouth, Firmino will be allowed to play should he feel able to do so.

Andy Robertson is Liverpool’s only player risking a suspension for the return leg if he is booked on Tuesday.

Bayern Munich team news vs Liverpool

Kingsley Coman

AUGSBURG, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 15: Kingsley Coman of FC Bayern Muenchen leaves the field after getting injured during the Bundesliga match between FC Augsburg and FC Bayern Muenchen at WWK-Arena on February 15, 2019 in Augsburg, Germany. (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Bongarts/Getty Images)

Manuel Neuer has been struggling with a hand problem recently. However, he proved his fitness in Friday’s 3-2 win over Augsburg and will start here.

Kinglsey Coman was Bayern’s two-goal in that Augsburg victory. He later limped off with a suspected left ankle tendon injury. However, the club have confirmed he will be fit to face Liverpool.

Niklas Sule is likely to start, with Jerome Boateng not being included in the matchday squad due to a stomach problem. Corentin Tolisso and Arjen Robben have also been ruled out for the Bundesliga side.

Franck Ribery had also remained in Germany as his wife has just given birth. However, he is expected to travel to Liverpool late on Monday to meet up with the rest of the squad after becoming a father.

Leon Goretzka trained alone on Monday evening due to a slight ankle injury. He is expected to recover and start the game on Tuesday though.

Thomas Müller is suspended for both legs, following his group stage red card versus Ajax.

Joshua Kimmich is Bayern’s only player risking a suspension for the return leg if he is booked on Tuesday.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bayern Munich

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bayern Munich

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bayern Munich

Predicted Bayern Munich team vs Liverpool

Predicted Bayern Munich team vs Liverpool

Predicted Bayern Munich team vs Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Bayern Munich

https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1097225923986898947

The latest tweets from Bayern Munich pre-Liverpool

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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