Eden Hazard

Cardiff vs Chelsea betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Cardiff vs Chelsea prediction: Cardiff 0-2 Chelsea

This Sunday afternoon kick-off marks just the 5th meeting of these two sides in British football; the previously four of which have all been won by Chelsea.

Chelsea hammered Cardiff 4-1, in London, when the teams last faced each other back in September. It will feel a familiar scoreline to Cardiff fans, having also lost their previous two visits by the same scoreline.

The only meeting between these sides in Cardiff was a much closer affair. On the final day of the 2013/14 season, Cardiff took an early lead in the fifteenth minute through Craig Bellamy. They managed to hold onto it until the final twenty minutes of the game. Chelsea then slotted two goals past David Marshall in the space of three minutes to seal a 1-2 win.

The form guide suggests this could be a tight match once again. Cardiff have picked up nine points from twenty-four over the last eight-game stretch. While Chelsea are only one point better off over the same eight-game period.

Cardiff vs Chelsea: Who will win?

LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 27: Gonzalo Higuain of Chelsea looks on during the FA Cup Fourth Round match between Chelsea and Sheffield Wednesday at Stamford Bridge on January 27, 2019 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)

Cardiff have won back to back games on only one other occasion this season. Can they follow up their win against West Ham last time out with another here? They are 8/1 outsiders to do so.

Cardiff have drawn only four matches this season in the Premier League. If you think they are overdue another, you can back them to share the points with Chelsea here at 16/5.

Chelsea have won each of the previous four meetings between these two sides. Can they make it five from five here? They are 2/5 favourites to win the match.

Cardiff vs Chelsea: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand. (Note, Higuain's numbers include his time at AC Milan prior to joining Chelsea)

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand. (Note: Higuain’s numbers include his time at AC Milan prior to joining Chelsea)

Callum Paterson is the bookies favourite to grab a goal here for the Bluebirds. This despite not scoring for fifteen games for club and country. He is 11/1 to score first and 7/2 to score at any time.

Eden Hazard was the hat-trick hero when these sides last faced each other. He is also Chelsea’s top-scorer in the Premier League, with thirteen goals. He is 15/4 to score first and 21/20 to score at any time.

Gonzalo Higuaín is the bookies favourite to score here for Chelsea. He has three goals in ten appearances for Chelsea since joining them on loan in January, all three of which have come against sides in the relegation zone. Can he continue to be a flat-track bully with another here? He is 10/3 to score first and 10/11 to score at any time.

Cardiff vs Chelsea: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) and Actual Goal Difference for Chelsea (Blue) and Cardiff (Orange). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) and Actual Goal Difference for Chelsea (Blue) and Cardiff (Orange). Click to expand.

A lot has been made of ‘Sarri-ball’ this season and whether or not things will improve in time as the players adapt to his tactical approach.

When looking at the graph though, there is a very clear downwards trend for Chelsea over the course of the season. This would suggest that, in actual fact, time is Sarri’s enemy here and that the deeper we get into the season, the worse it has been getting.

Both their expected goal difference (performance measurement) and actual goal difference (actual output) has been trending below 1.0 now for more than half the season. Unsurprisingly, if you are creating chances worth less than one goal better than your opponents, it will be a struggle to put together a sequence of wins.

This correlates to their results this season in the Premier League, where they have failed to win three games in a row since Matchday 5 of the season. A feat that even Burnley, Brighton and Newcastle have all managed since then.

One area where they haven’t struggled though, is in dispatching with sides struggling around the bottom of the table. Looking only at their results versus the eight teams battling against relegation, they have only dropped points against Southampton in a 0-0 draw over the hectic holiday schedule.

This all suggests that while Chelsea have their problems this season, a side like Cardiff will likely lack the tools to exploit them to their advantage on Sunday.

Cardiff team news vs Chelsea

CARDIFF, WALES – AUGUST 04: Neil Warnock, Manager of Cardiff City looks on during the Pre-Season Friendly match between Cardiff City and Real Betis at Cardiff City Stadium on August 4, 2018 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

Souleymane Bamba (ACL) and Harry Arter (Muscle Injury) look set to miss the match for Cardiff. While Joe Bennett (Thigh), Callum Paterson (Ankle) and Victor Camarasa (Calf) all face fitness test before the match. All are expected to pass and be involved though.

With over three weeks between their previous match and this one, Cardiff are expected to be well rested and able to bring back a few players from injuries before a busy run-in until the end of the season.

Chelsea team news vs Cardiff

LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 27: Callum Hudson-Odoi of Chelsea acknowledges the fans during the FA Cup Fourth Round match between Chelsea and Sheffield Wednesday at Stamford Bridge on January 27, 2019 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Marco van Ginkel (ACL) and Ethan Ampadu (Back) look set to miss the match for Chelsea.

While Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Back) and Davide Zappacosta (Ankle) all face fitness test before the match. They are 50/50 at the moment to be ready in time for this one.

Callum Hudson-Odoi continues to knock the managers door so hard, he threatens to break it down. His performances for England over the international week reminding Chelsea fans of the pace, flair and threat he offers in the final 3rd. However, he is still unlikely to force his way into the first-team on Sunday.

Emerson and Marcos Alonso have been sharing the left-back position recently. Emerson is expected to get the nod here.

Pedro is also expected to start ahead of Willian and Hudson-Odoi.

Predicted Cardiff team vs Chelsea

Predicted Cardiff team vs Chelsea

Predicted Cardiff team vs Chelsea

Predicted Chelsea team vs Cardiff

Predicted Chelsea team vs Cardiff

Predicted Chelsea team vs Cardiff

The latest tweets from Cardiff pre-Chelsea

The latest tweets from Chelsea pre-Cardiff

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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