Banner Cardiff City vs Brighton and Hove Albion betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Cardiff vs Brighton betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Cardiff City vs Brighton and Hove Albion prediction: Cardiff City 0-1 Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton tend to have had the better of Cardiff over the last 10 years. They are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches against Cardiff in all competitions. However, they have failed to win 18 of their last 19 away matches in the Premier League.

Cardiff’s form is no better though. They have lost 7 of their last 8 matches in the Premier League. Neil Warnock will know that home matches against sides in the bottom half of the table must be capitalised on.

They have just 5 points from 11 games so far in the Premier League. It will be difficult to escape relegation if they are unable to get something from games such as these.

Whereas Brighton’s solid start to the season leaves them closer to the European places than the relegation zone.

Cardiff City vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Who will win?

As the home favourites, Cardiff are 29/20 to win the tie.

Brighton beat Cardiff 1-0 the last time the two sides faced off in the Championship. You can find odds of 2/1 for them to repeat the feat here once more.

Of the 15 meetings between these two clubs, 8 have ended in a draw. This includes 4 of the last 6 encounters.

You can get odds of 21/10 if you believe this game will be added to the growing list of draws.

Cardiff City vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Who will score?

Callum Paterson & Josh Murphy are Cardiff’s joint top scorers this season with 2 goals apiece.

Paterson is available at odds of 8/1 to open the scoring here and 10/3 score any time. Murphy is 10/1 for first scorer and 4/1 to score any time.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Premier League

BRIGHTON, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 27: Glenn Murray of Brighton and Hove Albion celebrates after scoring his team’s first goal during the Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers at American Express Community Stadium on October 27, 2018 in Brighton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Glenn Murray has 6 goals already for Brighton this season. He has been the first goalscorer 3 times – available at odds of 5/1. He has been the last scorer 4 times – also available at 5/1. He has scored any time in a game in 5 of Brighton’s 11 games – available at 15/8.

The odd of both team scoring are 21/20.

The under 2.5 goals odds of 8/15 reflect the bookmaker’s belief that this game won’t be a goal-fest. Out of the last 8 meetings between the two sides, only one has had over 2.5 goals.

Cardiff City vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Match preview

In football, being good in both boxes is often crucial to results. If you can’t be good, then you need to be lucky. Cardiff have been neither this season.

Cardiff City vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Match preview

3-Game moving average showing points actually won vs points expected to win for both Brighton (Green) and Cardiff (Orange) based on expected goals models.

This table suggests that Cardiff are not picking up the points they likely should be. In fact, expected goals (xG) models suggest they should have around 10-11 points now and yet they have just 5. The reason for this is their performance in both boxes.

Measuring under-performance in both boxes for Cardiff

Based on chances created this season, they should be scoring 1.02 goals per game. They are currently averaging just 0.82, some 20% below what they should be scoring.

Is this from the lack of a proven scorer like Glenn Murray? After-all, Callum Paterson was playing full back in the Scottish Premier league not so long ago.

Likewise at the other end, based on the chances being created against them, they should be conceding an average of 1.79 goals per game.

However, they are currently averaging 2.18 goals against per game. Their goals against is around 22% above what it should be. Whether this is down to luck or poor goalkeeping, it is costing them points.

The Matty Ryan effect

Whereas with Brighton, they have roughly 5 points more than you would expect at the moment. The chances they are creating are being put away at a similar rate (xG = 11.59 | Goals = 12).

It is at the other end they are outperforming expectations.

Cardiff City vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Match preview

Goals conceded vs goals expected to concede (or xGA) based on chances allowed for their opponents.

As you can see here, they are conceding 22% less than expected. This equates to approximately 5 goals this season.

This is likely due to the highly rated Mat Ryan in goal who recently kept 3 clean sheets in a row. This despite Brighton giving up chances worth 1.5 to 3 goals every game this season.

Cardiff City team news vs Brighton and Hove Albion

CARDIFF, WALES – AUGUST 04: Neil Warnock, Manager of Cardiff City looks on during the Pre-Season Friendly match between Cardiff City and Real Betis at Cardiff City Stadium on August 4, 2018 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

Lee Peltier & Nathaniel Mendez-Laing remain on the long-term injury list with shoulder and knee injuries respectively. They won’t be involved until December at the earliest.

Jazz Richards also looks likely to miss out after picking up a knock.

Joe Ralls is still suspended following his sending off against Spurs.

Harry Arter will also miss the game through suspension after accumulating 5 yellow cards.

Camarasa will likely fill the void in central midfield. Junior Hoilett being recalled to the starting XI on the right of midfield after starting on the bench against Leicester.

Brighton and Hove Albion team news vs Cardiff City

Chris Hughton

CRAWLEY, WEST SUSSEX – JULY 22: Chris Hughton, manager of Brighton looks on ahead of the Pre Season Friendly match between Crawley Town and Brighton & Hove Albion at Broadfield Stadium on July 22, 2017 in Crawley, West Sussex. (Photo by Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images)

Davy Propper & Pascal Gross remain sidelined due to ankle injuries. The pair are expected to return some time after the international break.

Alireza Jahanbakhsh picked up a thigh injury in their defeat at Everton at the weekend. He is due to take a late fitness test before the game.

Anthony Knockaert is expected to replace him in the starting line-up should Jahanbakhsh be deemed unable to start the game. It is likely this will be the only change to the side from the weekend.

Predicted Cardiff City team vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Predicted Cardiff City team vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Predicted Cardiff City team vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Predicted Brighton and Hove Albion team vs Cardiff City

Predicted Brighton and Hove Albion team vs Cardiff City

Predicted Brighton and Hove Albion team vs Cardiff City

The latest tweets from Cardiff City pre Brighton and Hove Albion

The latest tweets from Brighton and Hove Albion pre Cardiff City

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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Brighton to beat Cardiff & under 2.5 goals: 21/5!