Burnley vs Liverpool betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Burnley vs Liverpool prediction: Burnley 0-3 Liverpool

Despite dropping points against Burnley in each of the last two seasons, Burnley is typically a safe 3-pointer for Liverpool in the league.

In the 8 matches between the sides, Liverpool have picked up 19 points from 24. They scored 16 goals in the process and conceded just 5.

Burnley come into the game in abysmal form with just 2 points from their last 21.

Whereas, Liverpool has only dropped 2 points in their last 6 games.

BURNLEY, ENGLAND – AUGUST 20: Manager of Liverpool Jurgen Klopp and Sean Dyche, Manager of Burnley embrace ahead of kick off during the Premier League match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor on August 20, 2016 in Burnley, England. (Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images)

Burnley vs Liverpool: Who will win?

Liverpool are huge 13/1 favourites coming into the game as they look to extend their record against Burnley to 7 wins in 9 league meetings.

Odds of 19/4 are available if you believe Burnley can prevent a Liverpool league double for the 3rd consecutive season.

Get notified!
About the best football betting tips from industry experts!
Thank you!

If you think Burnley can avoid an 8 game streak without a win, the odds are 2/7.

Burnley vs Liverpool: Who will score?

Graph showing the top 3 goalscorers of both sides.

Graph showing the top 3 goalscorers of both sides.

Mo Salah is the bookies favourite to open the scoring here at 12/5 and 4/7 at any time.

If Daniel Sturridge gets rotated into the side for a rare start, he is available at 11/4 for first scorer, 4/6 to score anytime.

Divock Origi’s dramatic late winner in the derby could be rewarded with a first start in 2 seasons. He is 15/4 to score first and 20/21 at any time.

Chris Woods, Matej Vydra & Ashley Barnes are joint-favourites to get on the scoresheet for Burnley here at 12/1. 15/4 at any time.

Burnley vs Liverpool: Match preview

Graph showing the rolling 3-game average expected goals for (xG) and against (xGA) for both sides. (Click to Expand)

Graph showing the rolling 3-game average expected goals for (xG) and against (xGA) for both sides. (Click to Expand)

The pattern of games between these two sides in the past has been quite clear. Liverpool will dominate the possession. Burnley will largely sit in a low block and limit Liverpool’s space in the key goal-scoring positions.

They will encourage Liverpool into taking pot shots out of frustration from long range. This is an area Liverpool have struggled to get any reward from since Coutinho left the club. Only Daniel Sturridge has scored from outside the box in open play for them this season.

However, unlike previous seasons, Burnley look very vulnerable at the back this season. Hart has done a solid job as a replacement for Pope, which suggests that isn’t the issue.

Perhaps clubs have simply adapted to Sean Dyche side tactically?

The 3-game rolling average for the expected goals for and against both sides paints a picture of how many are expecting this game to play out.

Liverpool’s xG, which had been declining since the start of the season, is showing signs of recovery. Their match at the weekend saw them create their highest number of big chances this season with 5. They also had their 2nd highest xG total of the season at 3.04.

At the other end, Burnley’s xGA has been increasing all season. More than half of their games have involved them having an xGA score of 1.9xGA or above.

Burnley vs Liverpool: Ones to Watch

Graph showing the average involvement of the players from both teams in attacking play this season. (Click to Expand)

Graph showing the average involvement of the players from both teams in attacking play this season. (Click to Expand)

Given the low xG of Burnley this season, with only Huddersfield scoring below them in this metric, it is no surprise to see this graph dominated by Liverpool players.

Salah is a threat in almost every game. Whether he is creating chances for others, being the scoring threat himself, or simply using his pace to stretch sides.

However, it may be Shaqiri is the key man in this game for the Reds. As mentioned, Burnley encourage a lot of long shots to be taken against them. If they fail to close Shaqiri down and invite him to do so, he is certainly someone who can hurt a side from distance.

He also is adept at operating between the lines and can pick a player out with a short pass or through ball into the box.

Gudmundsson & Vokes is the main threat posed to Liverpool on their skirmishes with van Dijk & Co at the other end.

Burnley team news vs Liverpool

BURNLEY, ENGLAND – AUGUST 01: Sean Dyche manager of Burnley looks on during the pre-season friendly match between Burnley and Celta Vigo at Turf Moor on August 1, 2017 in Burnley, England. (Photo by Nathan Stirk/Getty Images)

Robbie Brady suffered an ankle injury against Crystal Palace on Saturday and is a doubt for the game.

James Tarkowski returned to the bench against Palace. Sean Dyche may feel the extra few days since the Palace match will have him ready for this one.

Stephen Ward & Nick Pope remain the only long term absentees for them.

Liverpool team news vs Burnley

Jurgen Klopp watches Liverpool at Burnley

Jurgen Klopp during the Premier League match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor on January 1, 2018 in Burnley, England.

Liverpool are expected to go again with the same team that won the Merseyside derby.

Andrew Robertson has a dead leg and faces a late fitness test. Should he miss the game, expect Alberto Moreno to deputise for only his second league appearance of the season.

Sadio Mane has a gash on his foot and could also miss out. Naby Keita would be likely to deputise in his absence with Liverpool moving to a more 4-3-3 shape to accommodate him.

Jordan Henderson returns from suspension, but may need to take a place on the bench for the away side.
Adam Lallana & Dominic Solanke remain doubts having missed the last few squads. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain remains the only long term absentee as he continues his recovery from knee surgery.

Predicted Burnley team vs Liverpool

Predicted Burnley team vs Liverpool

Predicted Burnley team vs Liverpool

Predicted Liverpool team vs Burnley

Predicted Liverpool team vs Burnley

Predicted Liverpool team vs Burnley

The latest tweets from Burnley pre Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre Burnley

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.


Wednesday Premier League acca: Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd & Spurs ALL TO WIN: 70/1!!!!