Roberto Pereyra

Brighton vs Watford betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Brighton vs Watford prediction: Brighton 1-1 Watford

There have been just three meetings between these two sides in the Premier League era. The points have been evenly shared from those matches, with one win apiece and a draw.

Watford won 2-0 when the teams last faced each other back in August on the opening day of the season. A Roberto Pereyra brace, both assisted by José Holebas, securing the three points for the Hornets.

However, Brighton won the only Premier League match between them at the AMEX Stadium. A Pascal Groß goal was enough to secure them a 1-0 win back in December 2017.

Watford come into the weekend’s fixtures in 9th place on thirty-three points. They are one of six teams hoping to challenge Wolves, on thirty-five points, for a 7th place finish. A position, which in most seasons, earns qualification to the UEFA Europa League.

Brighton, on the other hand, come into the weekend’s fixtures in 13th place on twenty-six points. They are the front-runners of a pack of five teams hoping to stay ahead of the chasing Fulham and Cardiff to avoid a relegation battle at the end of the season.

Brighton vs Watford: Who will win?

Brighton & Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Premier League

BRIGHTON, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 27: Glenn Murray of Brighton and Hove Albion celebrates after scoring his team’s first goal during the Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers at American Express Community Stadium on October 27, 2018 in Brighton, United Kingdom. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Brighton have just one win from their last nine Premier League games. They threw away a two-goal half-time lead in midweek to Fulham; losing the game 4-2. However, they won their home fixture against Watford 1-0 last season. Can they repeat that result here on Saturday? They are 29/20 favourites to do so.

Two of the last five meetings between these sides in Brighton have ended in stalemate. Watford have also drawn three of their last five Premier League games. Will we see another draw here? Odds of 11/5 are available if they share the points.

Watford have won three of their last six visits here in all competitions. They also defeated Brighton when the sides met at the beginning of the season. They are 19/10 to take all three points home with them once again.

Brighton vs Watford: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Troy Deeney is the all-time leading scorer in matches between the pair. He has four goals from nine appearances for Watford against Brighton. However, he has yet to score in this fixture since the promotion of both teams to the Premier League. He is 5/2 to get his first Premier League goal against Brighton on Saturday. Or 7/1 to do so as first scorer.

Roberto Pereyra was the heart-breaker for Brighton when these sides met at the start of the season. He scored both goals in a 2-0 Watford win. He is Watford’s top scorer coming into the weekend fixtures. However, he has just one goal in his last fourteen Premier League matches. He is 3/1 to end his goal drought today; 17/2 to do so as first scorer.

Glenn Murray is Brighton’s leading scorer this season with ten goals. Two of which he grabbed in their last game against Fulham, despite the game ending in defeat. However, it ended a run of ten games without a goal for him personally. Can this be the start of another scoring streak? He is bookies favourite to opening the scoring at 9/2, or score at any time at 8/5.

Brighton vs Watford: Match preview

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Brighton (Blue) and Watford (Yellow). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Brighton (Blue) and Watford (Yellow). Click to expand.

Both Brighton and Watford are struggling to win games at present. Brighton has just one win from their last nine Premier League matches. While Watford have three wins in their last fourteen matches; or one in the last six.

The expected goals model above does hint towards the underlying cause for this. For Brighton, their expected goals is trending below 1.0 goals per game, suggesting they are not creating enough chances in terms of quantity and/or quality. More worryingly for them, the defensive side of their game seems to be slipping as their xGA shoots back up above 1.5 goals per game.

With Watford, their problems are very much in defence. After a good start to the season in terms of restricting chances for the opposition, they are now trending between 1.5 to 2.0 xGA per game. This, while their xG is 1.0 to 1.5 per game. All this suggests that for both these teams, they give up better quality and/or quality chances than they are creating themselves.

This means a lot of luck is needed to pick up a point, never mind all three.

Brighton vs Watford: Grabbing Prime Real Estate

Bar chart showing Deep Completions for all Premier League teams. Brighton and Watford are highlighted in Blue and Yellow respectively. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing Deep Completions for all Premier League teams. Brighton and Watford are highlighted in Blue and Yellow respectively. Click to Expand.

The map of Deep Completions (above) nicely underlines Brighton’s problems in front of goal. In terms of all twenty Premier League sides, they rank last in terms of the number of passes they are completing within twenty meters of their opponents’ goal.

Therefore, it comes as no surprise to see that fifteen (or 56%) of their twenty-seven goals this season have come from set-pieces. This compared to the nine (or 27%) of Watford’s thirty-three goals from set-pieces.

This suggests that we will likely see Watford dominate the territory in the game while Brighton are more likely to pose a threat on the counter or from set pieces.

Brighton team news vs Watford

Chris Hughton

CRAWLEY, WEST SUSSEX – JULY 22: Chris Hughton, manager of Brighton looks on ahead of the Pre Season Friendly match between Crawley Town and Brighton & Hove Albion at Broadfield Stadium on July 22, 2017 in Crawley, West Sussex. (Photo by Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images)

Jose Izquierdo and Jason Steele remain on the long-term injury list for Brighton.

Despite Iran’s exit from the Asian Cup, Alireza Jahanbakhsh may still miss this match due to travel.

Bernardo has made a good recovery from his thigh injury. It’s now about when Chris Hughton feels he’s ready for matches. He is expected to make the bench for this one.

If Hughton decides to make changes to the side that lost 4-2 to Fulham, Anthony Knockaert, Yves Bissouma and Beram Kayal will be those hoping to benefit with a place in the starting XI on Saturday.

Watford team news vs Brighton

Abdoulaye Doucoure

WATFORD, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 27: Abdoulaye Doucoure of Watford during the Premier League match between Watford FC and Huddersfield Town at Vicarage Road on October 27, 2018 in Watford, United Kingdom. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Kiko Femenia and Sebastian Prodl remain on the long-term injury list for Watford.

Abdoulaye Doucoure missed Wednesday’s match against Tottenham in midweek. Javi Gracia confirmed after the match that he feels better day by day, but in this moment not enough to train and play with the team. Therefore, he remains a doubt here.

If Javi Gracia decides to rotate the side that lost to Spurs in midweek, then Adam Masina and Isaac Success will hope to be amongst those rotated into the starting XI.

Predicted Brighton team vs Watford

Predicted Brighton team vs Watford

Predicted Brighton team vs Watford

Predicted Watford team vs Brighton

Predicted Watford team vs Brighton

Predicted Watford team vs Brighton

The latest tweets from Brighton pre-Watford

https://twitter.com/OfficialBHAFC/status/1090730121479311360

The latest tweets from Watford pre-Brighton

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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