Bournemouth vs Liverpool betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Liverpool

Bournemouth have lost 4 of their 6 Premier League matches against Liverpool. This includes a league double last season as Liverpool ran up an aggregate score of 7-0.

Their only victory against Liverpool in the previous 13 matches in all competitions, came here in the Premier League in December 2016. The game will forever be remembered as one of the great Premier League comebacks.

Bournemouth were 1-3 down with just 14 minutes remaining when supersub, Ryan Fraser, scored to give them a lifeline. A Steve Cook equaliser 2 minutes later, from a Fraser cross, set up a grand finale. Nathan Aké completed the dramatic comeback in the 90th minute in a penalty box scramble.

Looking now at the present, Bournemouth’s win against Huddersfield in the midweek fixtures ended a run of four successive defeats for the Cherries.

Liverpool have won 39 points from a possible 45 this season. This is their best-ever start to a top-flight league season. Only six sides in the Premier League era (including Manchester City this season) have won more points from their opening 15 league games.

James Milner could become the 2nd youngest player to reach 500 Premier League appearances if involved in this match. Only 12 players have reached the 500 appearances landmark in Premier League history.

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LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Xherdan Shaqiri of Liverpool celebrates after scoring his team’s second goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Fulham FC at Anfield on November 11, 2018 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)

Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Who will win?

Bournemouth’s Eddie Howe has lost more games as a manager in all competitions to Liverpool, than any other side (7, level with Man City). Liverpool are 4/6 favourites to win if you think they can extend it to 8 games.

If you believe Bournemouth can repeat the feat of almost 2 years ago to the day, and beat Liverpool here, you can find good odds of 15/4.

Alisson is yet to taste defeat as a Liverpool player in the Premier League. This 15 match run equals the club record in the Premier League set by Javier Mascherano. A point here would be enough to keep his record intact. The odds that they share the points are just 3/1.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Who will score?

Graph showing the top 3 scorers for each side who are likely to be involved in the game. Goals (Grey) and Expected Goals (Gold) per 90 minutes played.

Graph showing the top 3 scorers for each side who are likely to be involved in the game. Goals (Grey) and Expected Goals (Gold) per 90 minutes played.

Mo Salah has gone 3 games without a goal for Liverpool in all competitions; a drought by his standards. If you think he is due a goal here, he is the bookies favourite to score first at 10/3 and 5/6 at any time.

Roberto Firmino has been involved in five goals in his last five appearances against Bournemouth (3 goals, 2 assists). He is 11/8 to bag another goal against them here, 5/1 to do so as first scorer.

Callum Wilson has 8 goals and 3 assists for club and country in his last 12 matches. He is 15/8 to keep his white-hot form going with another goal here. 13/2 as first scorer in the match.

Having gone 10 Bournemouth games without a goal, Ryan Fraser ended his goal-less streak against Huddersfield in midweek. If you think this is the start of another scoring streak for him, you can get odds of 11/2 here. 18/1 as first scorer.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Match preview

Bournemouth have lost each of their 4 matches this season against the ‘big 6’. However, unlike in previous seasons, they haven’t looked completely mismatched at any point. They have managed to stay in the game competitively.

It has been clear from watching them this season, the quality of their football has improved. What is even more impressive, is that this is largely down to coaching rather than signing new players to simply improve the quality of personnel Eddie Howe has available.

This is one of many reasons why Eddie Howe is held in such high regard in the game. In an era where managers increasingly look to the cheque book to solve problems in their team, he backs himself to solve the problems on the training pitches.

Which does raise the question, how well he could do with even more naturally gifted players as a starting point?

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Bournemouth (Black) and Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Bournemouth (Black) and Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

Quality of Chances for and Against

Bournemouth have made the biggest strides this season at the top end of the pitch. They have excellent penetration from midfield, particularly from their wide players who move into the half-spaces.

It is clear from the xG chart above that, in an attacking sense at least, they are not too far away from Liverpool this season. It has been noted before, they are now one of the top sides in the Premier League in terms of the creation of big chances.

It is at the other end of the pitch where their problems persist. With Liverpool, the number of goals they are expected to concede is staying below that 1 goal line all season. Alisson rarely faces a high volume of quality chances.

Whereas Bournemouth have only had 5 games this season with an xGA of less than 1. The trend has shot up over recent weeks too. This will largely be perceived as due to the difficulty of the sides they are facing (Arsenal, United & City). However, their xGA was 1.5 against Huddersfield and 2.5 against Newcastle also. In both instances, more than double what these sides typically manage in an average Premier League game.

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Deep Completions For and Against for Bournemouth (Black) and Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

Graph showing the 3-game rolling average of Deep Completions For and Against for Bournemouth (Black) and Liverpool (Red). Click to expand.

Location, Location, Location

Territory is extremely important in football. When watching any side that consistently creates and scores big chances, it is noticeable how adept they are in creating space in prime scoring positions close to goal.

One way of measuring how successfully a team is attacking or defending, is measuring the frequency they are allowing sides to complete passes in these positions. As you can see, the gap between these two sides becomes more apparent when looking at the game from this perspective.

Deep Completions Against show how good a job Liverpool do at keeping the ball away from those prime scoring positions. This is likely the difference having one of the best centre halves in the world, in Virgil van Dijk, will make to your team.

Bournemouth, on the other hand, have had some good periods during the season in limiting sides to 8 or fewer per game. However, by and large, they are trending at more than double the number a top side like Liverpool will be at. They also don’t have a genuinely world class goalkeeper to deal with the resulting chances either.

Which is why this game is likely going to boil down to performances in both boxes. Perhaps little separates these two sides between the boxes at the moment. However, the difference world class talent makes like Salah, van Dijk and Alisson will help Liverpool see off Bournemouth here.

Bournemouth team news vs Liverpool

Eddie Howe during the Premier League match between Manchester City and AFC Bournemouth at Etihad Stadium on December 23, 2017 in Manchester, England.

Adam Smith will miss the game due to a knee injury. He is expected to be side-lined until March.

Dan Gosling will also miss the game due to a knee injury. Whilst a prognosis hasn’t been made, he isn’t expected to be missing for long.

Lewis Cook has picked up a long term injury and will be out for six to eight months. In what is a huge blow for the player and The Cherries.

Liverpool team news vs Bournemouth

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 02: Jurgen Klopp, Manager of Liverpool gives the thumbs up to his players during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Everton FC at Anfield on December 02, 2018 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will miss the game due to a knee injury. He is expected to be side-lined for the rest of this season.

Nathaniel Clyne is still missing from the matchday squads due to a knock.

Joe Gomez picked up an ankle injury early in the game against Burnley. He will miss this game and early indicators from the club are he will be out for six weeks. Trent Alexander-Arnold looks likely to replace him in the starting lineup.

Sadio Mane missed the midweek game due to a gash on his foot that needed stitches. He might return to the squad for this one but looks unlikely to start.

Andrew Robertson missed the Burnley game due to a dead leg. He is expected to replace Moreno in the starting line-up. Robertson was spotted in training on Thursday.

Dejan Lovren has been struggling due to illness as of late. However, with Gomez picking up an injury in midweek, he will push to be back in the squad this weekend.

Dominic Solanke has also been missing lately due to a groin injury. He is still struggling with it and may miss a few more games.

Fabinho, Wijnaldum, Salah & Firmino all look likely to return to the starting XI having been rested against Burnley.

Predicted Bournemouth team vs Liverpool

(Lewis Cook is sidelined with a serious knee injury. Expect Andrew Surman to replace him.)

Predicted Bournemouth team vs Liverpool

Predicted Bournemouth team vs Liverpool

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bournemouth

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bournemouth

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bournemouth

The latest tweets from Bournemouth pre Liverpool

https://twitter.com/afcbournemouth/status/1070345803829436416

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre Bournemouth

https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1070626909367615489

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.


Massive odds on Liverpool to beat Bournemouth: 25/1!!!!