Bayern Munich vs Liverpool betting tips: Champions League preview & predictions

Bayern Munich vs Liverpool prediction: Bayern Munich 1-1 Liverpool

Wednesday night’s UEFA Champions League action will see another of the tournament’s favourites, and 5-time winners of the trophy, crash out.

Bayern hold five Champions League wins, the last of which came in 2013 against Jürgen Klopp’s Dortmund in the final. While last season’s beaten finalists, Liverpool, have also won it five times. The most recent of which being that famous night in Istanbul, in 2005.

While Bayern are the bookies favourites to win the match, Liverpool also look well placed to go through given that Bayern need to beat them to progress. Liverpool would go through with just a score draw.

Interestingly, the only other occasion these sides met head-to-head in the UEFA Champions League also saw a 0-0 at Anfield in the first leg, in the semi-finals of the competition, back in 1981.

On that occasion, a 1-1 draw in Munich saw Bayern eliminated on away goals.

Can history repeat itself here?

Bayern Munich vs Liverpool: Who will win?

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – MARCH 10: Roberto Firmino of Liverpool gestures as sleet falls during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Burnley FC at Anfield on March 10, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Bayern are undefeated in the UEFA Champions League this season; a run that includes 4 wins and 3 draws. They will likely need to win this match to see them through in the tie. They are 11/10 favourites to win here.

Bayern have drawn each of their last 2 UEFA Champions League matches, versus Ajax and Liverpool. You can back another draw here at 27/10.

Liverpool’s away record in this season’s competition has been abysmal; played 3, lost 3, scored 1, conceded 5. Unsurprisingly then, this sees them come here as 13/5 underdogs.

Bayern Munich vs Liverpool: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs in their domestic leagues, filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs in their domestic leagues, filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

Robert Lewandowski ended his mini-scoring drought of 3 games, with back-to-back braces in Bayern’s last 2 games. He is the competition’s top-scorer this season with 8 goals; 2 more than Messi, Tadic and Marega. He is 5/2 to score first. 4/6 to score at any time.

Franck Ribéry has yet to get off the mark for 2019. However, he had 4 goals in 4 games before the winter break for Bayern. His hat-trick of assists at the weekend suggests he may be finding some form. Can he follow it up with a goal here against Liverpool? He is 8/1 to score first. 12/5 to score at any time.

Mohamed Salah remains the favourite to score for the away side, despite scoring just once in his last 8 matches for Liverpool. He is 5/1 to score first. 7/5 to score at any time.

Sadio Mané was the only player to score in every round of the Champions League last season; 10 goals in 11 games in total. However, he has just 1 goal in 7 this season. He is in red hot form in the league at the moment, with 8 goals in his last 8 games. Can he carry that form into the Champions League starting here, against Bayern? He is 8/1 to score first. 12/5 to score at any time.

Bayern Munich vs Liverpool: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Liverpool (Red) and Bayern Munich (Black) in their domestic leagues. Click to expand.

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goals For (xG) and Against (xGA) for Liverpool (Red) and Bayern Munich (Black) in their domestic leagues. Click to expand.

The first leg of this tie was surprising, in that Bayern failed to really test Liverpool’s makeshift backline of Matip & Fabinho. Something you suspect they may rue come the full-time whistle on Wednesday, should away goals be their undoing.

Virgil van Dijk was missing due to a suspension for accumulated yellow cards. However, he will return here which would, you suspect, further restrict a Bayern attack which failed to create a single big chance, or register a shot on target of any kind, in the first leg.

Dribbling effectiveness seemed to be a key feature in the first leg. Liverpool chose to dribble the ball a lot against Bayern. They completed 13 of 16 dribbles against Bayern, of which 3 of 4 were in the Bayern penalty box and 10 of 11 in central areas in the final 3rd.

In contrast, Bayern completed just 4 of 13. Of which 2 of 3 were in the Liverpool penalty area (both Gnabry); 2 of 5 in the final 3rd.

This underpinned Liverpool’s good work in creating chances against Bayern. They managed to create 4 big chances in total but they failed to convert any of them, or even really test a Manuel Neuer who has struggled to deal with shots on target this season.

Sadio Mané was the main culprit in front of goal, spurring Liverpool’s two best chances on the evening. However, he as been in electric form for the Reds recently and you suspect he would not be so profligate should the same chances fall his way here.

Bayern Munich team news vs Liverpool

Joshua Kimmich

AUGSBURG, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 15: Joshua Kimmich of FC Bayern Muenchen reacts after the Bundesliga match between FC Augsburg and FC Bayern Muenchen at WWK-Arena on February 15, 2019 in Augsburg, Germany. (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Bongarts/Getty Images)

Meritan Shabani, Kingsley Coman, Arjen Robben and Corentin Tolisso all look likely to miss the game due to injury for Bayern.

Joshua Kimmich and Thomas Muller will also miss the match through suspension.

David Alaba has been struggling with injury lately, with Rafinha having covered left-back for Bayern. With Kimmich set to miss the game through suspension, Bayern will be hoping Alaba recovers in time to avoid having to get creative in solving their shortage at full-back.

Franck Ribery gave a stunning cameo at the weekend, as he created 3 goals for Bayern off the bench. This should earn him the chance to start in place of the suspended Muller.

Liverpool team news vs Bayern Munich

LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 15: Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool and team mate Joe Gomez celebrate following the Premier League match between Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool FC at Wembley Stadium on September 15, 2018 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Joe Gomez, Rhian Brewster and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain remain on the injury list for Liverpool. Although, Oxlade-Chamberlain managed his first 40 minutes of the season for the U23 side against Derby on Friday.

Dejan Lovren made a return to the bench for the weekend clash against Burnley. Although Klopp will likely continue the partnership of Matip & van Dijk which has proven successful in recent weeks.

Trent Alexander-Arnold was withdrawn towards the end of Sunday’s game due to muscle tightness. Liverpool will be hoping he can recover in time for the game.

The man most likely to replace him, James Milner, is also struggling with a thigh injury. He will be monitored leading up to the game also, but is expected to recover in time.

Virgil van Dijk, who missed the first leg through suspension, will return to the side at centre-back. Fabinho will likely move into his preferred position in midfield.

Adam Lallana gave a good account of himself at the weekend in a rare start. However, he is expected to make way for one of Jordan Henderson or Naby Keita.

Andy Robertson is Liverpool’s only player risking a suspension for the return leg if he is booked on Tuesday.

UPDATE: Naby Keita has been ruled out of this match and has not travelled to Munich with Liverpool. Either Milner or James Henderson seems likely to come in.

Predicted Bayern Munich team vs Liverpool

Predicted Bayern Munich team vs Liverpool

Predicted Bayern Munich team vs Liverpool

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bayern Munich

(Naby Keita has not travelled. Will likely be replaced by either James Milner of Jordan Henderson in the predicted XI below.)

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bayern Munich

Predicted Liverpool team vs Bayern Munich

The latest tweets from Bayern Munich pre-Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Bayern Munich

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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