Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool betting tips: Champions League preview & predictions

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-1 Liverpool

Liverpool travel to Wanda Metropolitano to kick-off the 2019/20 UEFA Champions League knockout rounds versus Atlético Madrid.

It is a stadium their supporters will have very fond memories of. They watched their side pick up the European Cup for the sixth time in their history here back in June. However, in their two previous meetings against Atlético in Madrid, they have failed to secure a victory.

For Atlético, they would love to see a repeat of the 2010 Europa League semi-final result against Liverpool, a match that saw them win 1-0 here. They finished the job at Anfield on away goals before winning the final against another English side, Fulham.

Putting this tie in perspective though, the odds are 1/4 that Liverpool progress.


LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 01: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool celebrates after scoring his team’s fourth goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Southampton FC at Anfield on February 01, 2020 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool: Who will win?

Atlético won 1-0 the last time they welcomed Liverpool to Madrid. However, given the contrasting form of the two sides this season, the home side start the match as the 5/2 underdogs.

The only two previous meetings between these teams in the UEFA Champions League have both ended in stalemate. Both matches finished 1-1 in the 2008 group stages. Odds of 5/2 are available if you believe they will cancel each other out once more on Tuesday evening.

Given Liverpool’s imperious form in the league this season, they start the match as the 6/5 favourites. This despite failing to beat Atletico Madrid in their previous two visits to Madrid.

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool top goalscorers chart courtesy of Craque Stats.

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool top goalscorers chart courtesy of Craque Stats.

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool: Who will score?

Álvaro Morata is Atlético’s top scorer this season with seven league goals. The fact that he wouldn’t even make the top three of Liverpool’s scorer charts tells you how much they have struggled in front of goal this season as a club.

The Spanish international is expected to start the match having recovered from a muscle injury and is 6/1 to grab the games opening goal. Or you can back Morata at 11/5 to score at any time during the match.

Sadio Mané made a goal-scoring return to the Liverpool side at the weekend. It was his twelfth league goal of the season. You can get odds of 5/1 on Mané being the game’s opening scorer again here. Or 7/4 for the Senegal international to score at any time during the game.

Mohamed Salah is Liverpool’s top scorer this season with fourteen league goals. He scored the game’s opening goal on his last visit to Wanda Metropolitano, slotting home an early penalty in the 2019 Champions league final against Tottenham Hotspur.

You can back the Egyptian King to grab the game’s opening goal here at 4/1. Or 7/5 for Mo Salah to score at any time during Tuesday night’s match.


Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool recent form table courtesy of Craque Stats.

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool recent form table courtesy of Craque Stats.

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool: Match preview

After over nine years of seemingly performing miracles at Atlético, Diego Simeone’s side find themselves fourth in La Liga on goal difference, thirteen points adrift of leaders Real Madrid.

This has seen him come under some pressure from the media who deem this unacceptable for a side accustomed to being involved the title race for seven straight years.

It is a story that Jurgen Klopp will know all too well, having found himself in a similar situation in his final season at Dortmund. Although, at the time, BVB found themselves in the relegation zone prior to the winter break. An impressive second half of the season playing at title winning form saw them claw their way up into a seventh place finish and a German Cup final, which they lost to Wolfsburg.

Another common denominator between Dortmund 14/15 and Atletico 19/20 is that the Expected Goals (xG) models suggested both clubs were actually performing at closer to title contending form. However, both were having a dismal display in the opponent’s box, where it counts.

For Atletico, they have scored twelve goals fewer than xG suggests so far this season. While at the other end, Oblak is still having a good season, but not performing the miracles we have come to expect from a player considered the best shot stopper in the world since signing for Los Rojiblancos. In terms of save percent, it is his worst season since he was a teenager just starting out his career in Portugal.


LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 16: Alisson of Liverpool celebrates after his team mate Sadio Mane of Liverpool (not pictured) scored their team’s first goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Manchester United at Anfield on December 16, 2018 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool: A look at the visitors

In contrast, Alisson in the Liverpool goal is having an insane run of form at the moment. Only one of the last twenty-eight shots on target have resulted in a goal. This refusal to let anything pass underpins Liverpool’s fantastic form at present.

Saturday’s win against Norwich is a perfect example of this. Alisson’s brilliant first half save to prevent a Pukki tap-in kept Liverpool in the game. Sadio Mané’s introduction and goal secured them a 1-0 win only made possible by Alisson’s earlier save. It was a similar story in the 1-0 victories over Spurs and Wolves (twice) in the past seven weeks.

The have also been in clinical form in front of goal, scoring twenty-nine goals in their last twelve games and remain the only side to have scored in every Premier League match this season.

So, what do you do against a team that always find a way to score and also refuse to conceded? That is the impossible question facing Diego Simeone on Tuesday.

Atletico Madrid team news vs Liverpool

MADRID, SPAIN – SEPTEMBER 01: Kieran Trippier of Atletico Madrid celebrates at the end of the the Liga match between Club Atletico de Madrid and SD Eibar SAD at Wanda Metropolitano on September 01, 2019 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images)

Kieran Trippier has missed the last 5 matches for Atletico with a groin strain. He is not expected to make a return in time to face Liverpool.

Atlético Madrid are facing something of an injury crisis in attack. João Félix has missed Atlético’s last three matches due to a leg injury. He looks unlikely to be available for either leg of this round of 16 clash.

Diego Costa has missed most of this season through injury. He hasn’t featured since Atlético’s 3-1 win over Espanyol back in November due to a herniated disc. He has also been ruled out for Tuesday’s visit of the European Champions.

On the positive front, Álvaro Morata made a successful return from a muscle injury at the weekend. He managed to play the final twenty-four minutes of the match and should be in line to lead the attack against Liverpool.

Predicted Atletico Madrid team vs Liverpool

Predicted Atletico Madrid team vs Liverpool

Predicted Atletico Madrid team vs Liverpool

Liverpool team news vs Atletico Madrid

WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 23: Sadio Mane of Liverpool sits injured on the floor during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool FC at Molineux on January 23, 2020 in Wolverhampton, United Kingdom. (Photo by James Baylis – AMA/Getty Images)

Xherdan Shaqiri, Yasser Larouci and Nathaniel Clyne all missed Liverpool’s 0-1 win at Carrow Road on Saturday. They remain unavailable for the trip to Madrid.

Takumi Minamino was left out of the matchday squad at the weekend. He is fit and available for selection and could be included in the squad here as Klopp looks to keep his players fresh.

Sadio Mané returned to the squad at the weekend after missing the previous two games due to injury. He grabbed the game’s winning goal from the bench and is expected to be recalled to the starting XI at the expense of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Naby Keita made his first league start since the 0-4 win at Leicester in December. However, he is likely to be rested for this one with Klopp wanting to be cautious with a player who has struggled with injuries so far in his short time at the club.

Jordan Henderson was the only midfielder to play a full ninety minutes for Liverpool against Norwich. Given the short period of time between games, it looks likely that both he and Keita will sit this one out in favour of Fabinho and James Milner.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Atletico Madrid

Predicted Liverpool team vs Atletico Madrid

Predicted Liverpool team vs Atletico Madrid

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.


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Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool betting tips FAQs

What time does Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool kick off?
20:00 UK time. Tuesday February 18, 2020.
Who are the favourites to win Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool?
Liverpool are 6/5 favourites to win the first leg match. Atletico Madrid can be backed at 5/2. The draw is 9/4. Odds via Bet365. Correct at the time of publishing.
What is the 101 Great Goals prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool?
Atletico Madrid 0 - Liverpool 1.
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