Aston Villa vs Liverpool betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction: Aston Villa 1-3 Liverpool

Aston Villa welcome Liverpool to Villa Park on Saturday afternoon for the first time in almost four years.

On Liverpool’s last visit here for the only match between them of Jurgen Klopp’s time at the club, the Reds destroyed the Villains 0-6.

They had six different scorers on the day too, with Daniel Sturridge, James Milner, Emre Can, Divock Origi, Nathaniel Clyne and Kolo Touré all getting on the scoresheet.

Since that day, Villa have suffered relegation and celebrated promotion. This triggered a massive summer spending spree where they invested more in their squad than any other Premier League side; a total net spend of £133.74m which was almost £45m more than any other team.

In contrast, Liverpool made a substantial net profit in the summer transfer window, also spending the least of all twenty clubs. Their only amount spent was £1.71m on 17-year old central defender, Sepp van den Berg. Goalkeeper Adrian was their only signing for the senior squad, arriving on a free transfer.

The sides look set to become very familiar with each other this season, having been drawn on Thursday to face one another at Villa Park in the next round of the Carabao Cup. This is assuming Liverpool don’t forfeit the tie due to their Club World Cup commitments; something that was hinted at by Jurgen Klopp in his post-match interview.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool: Who will win?

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 02: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool celebrates with Roberto Firmino after he scores his sides fourth goal during the UEFA Champions League group E match between Liverpool FC and RB Salzburg at Anfield on October 02, 2019 in Liverpool, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Villa have won only one of the last nineteen matches between these sides at Villa Park. Unsurprisingly then, they are 15/2 outsiders for the win at the weekend, despite having won three of their last five matches here this season.

Aston Villa have drawn two of their last three home matches. While Liverpool drew their last Premier League away fixture at Old Trafford. The odds of another draw here are 4/1.

Liverpool have won on each of their last five visits to Villa Park. They have also won eighteen of their last nineteen league matches. This sees them start the day as 4/11 favourites for another win here.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool: Who will score?

Wesley (pictured above) is Aston Villa’s top scorer this season with four goals. Although, only one of those goals has come here at Villa Park. The Brazilian is yet to go longer than two Premier League games without a goal for Villa. This sees Wesley as 3/1 to get on the scoresheet here. Or 11/1 to do so as first scorer.

Mohamed Salah scored the winning goal from the penalty spot last weekend against Spurs. It was his third winning goal and fifth goal in total already this season. Salah was withdrawn early from the match as a precaution but is expected to start on Saturday once more. The Egyptian is 4/6 to get on the scoresheet here. Or 3/1 to do so as first scorer.

Sadio Mané (pictured above) has scored the most non-penalty goals for Liverpool in the league this season, with five. However, he has only one goal in his last five league appearances. Will Mané get back amongst the goals at Villa Park? The Senegal captain is 4/5 to get on the scoresheet. Or 10/3 to do so as first scorer.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool: Match preview

If ever the term ‘goals look guaranteed here’ was needed, it is for this match.

As you can see in the graph above, Villa’s orange line, depicting the amount of goals they are expected to score based on the quality and quantity of chances created, is steadily increasing as the season progresses. They come into this match averaging 14.2 shot per game; bettered only by Man City (21.4), Chelsea (16.5) and their opponents, Liverpool (16.2).

The analogy used in the past regarding football tactics is that of a ‘short blanket’. You pull it up to cover your head, your feet will get cold. This is what we are seeing with Aston Villa also. As they look to improve in an attacking sense, they are also giving up more at the other end. No other Premier League side gives up more shots per game than Villa, averaging 18.8 shots against per game.

Therefore, it is no surprise to see that there have been over 2.5 goals in each of Villa’s last seven games. In that time, they have scored sixteen while conceding twelve and failing to keep a single clean sheet.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool: An eye on the visitors

At this point last season, the talk was of Liverpool setting a new record in clean sheets and fewest goals conceded. This despite both targets looking impossible to match when set by Mourinho’s Chelsea.

However, this season, while Liverpool have enjoyed an even better start to the season in terms of results, question marks persist regarding their record at the back. Although, the loss of Alisson, who was recently voted the world’s best goalkeeper, for most of the campaign so far has likely played a large role.

They have kept just two clean sheets this season. This has seen Liverpool need to consistently outscore opponents at the other end. The Reds scoring at least two goals in seventeen of their last nineteen games explains their impressive run of eighteen wins and one draw in that time.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in eight of the Reds last ten Premier League matches. Likewise, in each of their last three matches against the Villians, in all competitions.

All this suggests we could be in for one of the games of the season in the Premier League at Villa Park on Saturday.

Aston Villa team news vs Liverpool

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 28: John McGinn of Aston Villa is seen during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Burnley FC at Villa Park on September 28, 2019 in Birmingham, United Kingdom. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Aston Villa don’t have too many injury concerns coming into this match.

Keinan Davis was removed after 50 minutes from the mid-week victory over Wolves. He looks likely to be out until after the international break with a suspected hamstring injury.

Jack Grealish is the only other injury problem. He hobbled off against Manchester City last weekend. However, Dean Smith confirmed he is pushing to be fit for the Liverpool game this weekend as he has responded really well to treatment.

Smith changed nine players for the Carabao Cup clash in midweek from the side that started last Saturday against Man City. Only Douglas Luiz and Trézéguet remained in the starting XI.

Despite impressive performances from Henri Lansbury and Anwar El Ghazi, Smith is expected to revert back to the eleven that started their last Premier League match.

Predicted Aston Villa team vs Liverpool

Predicted Aston Villa team vs Liverpool

Predicted Aston Villa team vs Liverpool

Liverpool team news vs Aston Villa

Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah lies on the pitch before being substituted with an injury during the Premier League match at Anfield, Liverpool. (Photo by Peter Byrne/PA Images via Getty Images)

Only Nathaniel Clyne, who spent last season out on loan at Bournemouth, is ruled out in the long term for Liverpool.

Xheridan Shaqiri has played just 25 minutes of football for the club this season, and hasn’t been available since 22nd September’s visit to Chelsea. He has been struggling with a calf injury and Pep Lijnders confirmed this week that he won’t be involved until after the next international break.

Despite returning to face Manchester United, Joel Matip is still troubled by the knee injury picked up against Sheffield United last month. It now looks likely that he will be unavailable for the Reds up to the Christmas period. Dejan Lovren looks likely to continue deputising for the big Cameroonian center-half.

Mohamed Salah was removed early from Liverpool’s 2-1 win against Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. Lijnders confirmed in the mid-week press conference that this was purely a pre-caution as his ankle was feeling tired at the end of game. He is expected to start again at the weekend.

Virgil van Dijk was suffering from a dead leg after the match against Spurs. However, with a full week to recover, he is certain to be starting again at the weekend.

Naby Keita was withdrawn early from Wednesday night’s match against Arsenal with a suspected groin injury. His legs slid apart while trying to control a pass which may have caused a recurrence of the groin injury that plagued him since their victory against Barcelona.

Predicted Liverpool team vs Aston Villa

Predicted Liverpool team vs Aston Villa

Predicted Liverpool team vs Aston Villa

The latest tweets from Aston Villa pre-Liverpool

The latest tweets from Liverpool pre-Aston Villa

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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Back Aston Villa at 55/1 or Liverpool at 6/1!