Aston Villa vs Leicester betting tips: Premier League preview & predictions

Aston Villa vs Leicester prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Leicester

Leicester City visit Villa Park for the first time in nearly four years for Sunday’s Midlands derby.

Aston Villa come into the match on a poor run of form, having picked up just four points from eighteen from their last six matches. However, that run of games included Liverpool, Chelsea and both Manchester clubs.

Their recent record at Villa Park has been much more positive, where they have collected eleven points from the last eighteen. Only Liverpool, Leicester, Chelsea, City and United have a better record from their last six home matches.

Meanwhile, Leicester are in fantastic form and currently possess the longest active winning streak in the Premier League; now standing at seven matches.

If there is a chink in the Foxes armour though, it could be their away record. While they are undefeated at the King Power Stadium, with seven wins and a draw, they have dropped points three times on their travels, including two defeats in their last five.

Aston Villa vs Leicester: Who will win?

Aston Villa’s Wesley (centre) celebrates scoring his side’s first goal of the game with Trezeguet (left) and John McGinn during the Premier League match at Villa Park, Birmingham. (Photo by Nick Potts/PA Images via Getty Images)

Historically, matches between these sides have tended to favour the home side, with ten home wins to three. Despite this, Villa start the day as 10/3 underdogs.

The Foxes last visit to Villa Park back in January 2016 ended in a 1-1 stalemate. The odds of the two sides cancelling each other out once more have been set at 3/1 here.

Leicester have won each of their last seven Premier League games, including their last three away matches. Unsurprisingly then, the league’s second-placed side start the match as favourites at 3/4.

Aston Villa vs Leicester: Who will score?

Wesley (pictured above) is Aston Villa’s top scorer this season with four goals. However, he is without a goal in his last seven matches for the Villans. Can he find his end product once again here? The Brazilian international is 15/2 to open the scoring in the match. Or 21/10 to score at any time during the game.

Jamie Vardy (pictured above) is the Premier League’s hottest goal-scorer at the moment. He leads the league with fourteen goals, three more than Tammy Abraham on eleven. Vardy has scored in each of his last seven games; he has nine goals and two assists in total in that time. It is no surprise to see Vardy as the 8/11 favourite to score on Sunday. Or you can back him at 3/1 to be the game’s first goal-scorer.

James Maddison got back amongst the goals in midweek with a 94th minute strike against Watford. That puts him on seven goals now this season, in all competitions. He was man of the match on his only previous appearance against the Villans, in a 3-1 win for Norwich back April 2018. Maddison grabbed a goal and an assist that day. He is 13/8 to grab a goal on Sunday, or 6/1 to do so as first goal-scorer.

Aston Villa vs Leicester: Match preview

Historically, Premier League matches between these sides have tended to be tight affairs. Nine of the twenty encounters have ended in stalemate, with a further six being decided by just one goal.

The only rout in their head-to-heads was Villa’s 0-5 win in Leicester back in January 2004 when David O’Leary’s three strikers – Darius Vassell, Peter Crouch and Dion Dublin – all found the score-sheet.

That away victory though is something of a rarity in this fixture. Indeed, it remains Villa’s only away win against Leicester in the Premier League era. While Leicester have only managed to notch two away wins in ten visits to Villa Park.

As you can see above, Villa have fifteen points this season. However, only one point from a possible twenty-four has been gained from sides in the top-half of the table; that coming from the recent 2-2 at Old Trafford.

Their Premier League survival at this moment in time seems based on their ability to collect points from the other sides in the bottom half of the table. Something they are excelling at so far, collecting fourteen points from a possible twenty-one.

The Villans will also be looking forward to matches over the Christmas period against three of the four sides below them – Southampton, Norwich and Watford – as an opportunity to put further space between them and the other sides battling relegation.

Aston Villa vs Leicester: A look at the visitors

In contrast, Leicester are currently in a run of form reminiscent of their 2015/16 season, at the end of which they were crowned Premier League champions.

They are currently the league’s form team, winning all of their last seven league games and boast the league’s in-form striker who has hammered in nine goals in that seven-game run.

When looking at Leicester’s Expected Goals graph in the past, the belief was their underlying performances wasn’t matching their results and the 0-9 demolition of Southampton gave an exaggerated weighting to their numbers.

However, while in such situations the prediction is for teams to regress towards the mean, the flawed assumption is that performance levels will stay constant. Whereas, we often see teams who build confidence from positive results in spite of average performances.

This confidence in turn sees performance levels improve dragging them up to where the results are at, rather than results being dragged down to previous performance levels. It certainly looks to be the case with Leicester whose Expected Goals For (xG, orange) is improving dramatically as the season goes on. Meanwhile, at the other end of the pitch, their Expected Goals Against (xGA, black) is holding steady.

While people are reluctant to see them as title contenders given the performance levels of Liverpool and Manchester City over the past season and a half, their current performance levels puts them in that conversation. The question now is, can they maintain or even improve further still?

Aston Villa team news vs Leicester

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 01: Anwar El Ghazi of Aston Villa reacts after picking up an injury which results in him going off during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Aston Villa at Old Trafford on December 1, 2019 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)

Keinan Davis and Jed Steer are ruled out for Aston Villa.

Anwar El Ghazi missed the trip to Chelsea in midweek due to injury. He is still rated as doubtful to be involved here. Therefore, Trézéguet looks set to retain his place on the wing after making a goal-scoring return to the starting XI.

Jota picked up some minutes in midweek with a cameo from the bench. It was his first involvement for Villa since starting the 0-0 draw against West Ham, back in September. He is likely to continue on the bench with Grealish and Trézéguet preferred.

Frédéric Guilbert was absent on Wednesday night due to suspension. He is expected to reclaim his place from Ahmed Elmohamady.

After five consecutive starts, Douglas Luiz was rested for the midweek trip to London. He could be in contention to return in midfield here.

Predicted Aston Villa team vs Leicester

Predicted Aston Villa team vs Leicester

Predicted Aston Villa team vs Leicester

Leicester team news vs Aston Villa

LEICESTER, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 01: Brendan Rodgers, Manager of Leicester City reacts after the Premier League match between Leicester City and Everton FC at The King Power Stadium on December 01, 2019 in Leicester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Matty James, Bartosz Kapustka and George Thomas are ruled out for Leicester.

Ben Chilwell missed the midweek victory over Watford with a slight problem. Brendan Rodgers has confirmed that he is in contention to start against Villa though.

Demarai Gray was also left out of the squad to face Watford due to illness. He is also expected to return to the squad at the weekend, likely taking a place on the bench.

Rodgers has opted not to rotate his squad much this season. Therefore Chilwell returning in place of Fuchs is expected to be the only change from the side that dispatched Watford last time out.

Predicted Leicester team vs Aston Villa

Predicted Leicester team vs Aston Villa

Predicted Leicester team vs Aston Villa

The latest tweets from Aston Villa pre-Leicester

The latest tweets from Leicester pre-Aston Villa

All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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