March 20th, 2010
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Our attempt of scooping up some extra coinage midweek turned sour, although our predictions were pointed in the right direction. We correctly called that Inter would knock out Chelsea, while also plumping on Barca to smack the goals past Stuttgart. Sadly we strayed in the particulars, but buoyed by our overall analysis we look forward to trying to do better this weekend.
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We begin this weekend’s predictions in Italy on Sunday afternoon as Cagliari welcome crisis-club Lazio to the Stadio Sant’Elia.
Cagliari ended on the wrong side of the eight-goal thriller against Genoa last weekend but they are still very much in with a chance of finishing in the top six in Serie A this campaign. Their success has been built on a strong home foundation in which Cagliari have won seven times in the league in front of their own supporters. That record looks all the more impressive against a Lazio side that have won just twice away from home all season in the league.
Lazio are quite simply awful this season, holding their heads just above the drop-zone by two wafer-thin points. The problems are increased this weekend with a crippled squad in which Bizzarri, Dabo, Meghni, Foggia, Manfredini and Matuzalem are all out injured, Zarate, Radu and Firmani are suspended, while Biava, Baronio and Rocchi are all doubtful with knocks.
Later on Sunday night in Spain, Europa League quarter-finalists Valencia host Almeria at the Mestalla. Despite holding down third place in the table, Los Che have been stuttering in the league of late, and Almeria, who have shown good form in recent weeks will look to take advantage of their hosts’ uncertainty.
Hampering Valencia this weekend are the suspensions of Bruno, Hedwiges Maduro and Nikola Zigic, however, with the likes of David Villa, Juan Mata, David Silva and Ever Banega in their team, the hosts will have a formidable starting XI against Almeria.
Writing off Almeria should be done with caution as since Juan Manuel Lillo was appointed at Christmas the side have done a complete 180 this season. Almeria’s turnaround since New Year has been staggering. Having previously won only 13 points, Lillo has helped them to 20 points in only 11 fixtures, suffering only one loss along the way, that coming on a bog of a pitch away to Sevilla.
Lastly, on Monday night we turn to Norway where local powerhouse Rosenborg have a scored to settle against Start IK. Last season Rosenborg were almost perfect, losing just one match throughout the whole Tippeligaen season against this weekend’s opponents Start. That match was infamous for Rosenborg’s late implosion as the Troll Kids let in two last minute goals, and ruined their undefeated season for no reason whatsoever. Unquestionably, Rosenborg will be looking for revenge this time around.
Backing Cagliari (2.13), Valencia (1.35) and Rosenborg (1.57) to all win, our hope is that a £2 will blossom into a £9.03 return.
Posted by Arthur Antunes Coimbra | No Comments » | Permalink | ![]()
March 19th, 2010
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Real Zaragoza v Barcelona, La Liga, March 21, 2010
Real Zaragoza 9.76; Draw 4.91; Barcelona 1.28
“He’s the best player in the world, he’s fantastic and it’s incredible to think he’s still only 22. You can rightly compare him with (Diego) Maradona.” – Stuttgart coach Christian Gross.
Real Zaragoza are the next side looking to stop Lionel Messi following yet another scintillating display in the Champions League in midweek. “The Flea” has now scored seven of Barcelona’s last nine goals and has eight from four games. Whilst Barcelona are by no means a one man team it is fair to say that the diminutive Argentinean has breathed life into the Catalan giants after a patchy recent spell.
Even with Messi though, the pressure is likely to be on Barcelona with Real Madrid expected to brush Sporting Gijon aside at the Bernabeu on Saturday night and Pep Guardiola’s side have failed to win their last two away games. Zaragoza have also significantly improved in the second half of the season and still need the points to lift themselves free of relegation fears. (4.38 on Draw/Barcelona.)
Since losing 6-0 at Real Madrid in their final league game of 2009, Zaragoza have steadied the ship after bringing in seven players in the January transfer window. They are now on an unbeaten run of three games and whilst they may well spend much of the encounter with Barcelona on the back foot, they do have some players that can do damage.
The key man for Zaragoza since January has been Humberto Suazo as the Chilean striker has been a sensation, scoring four goals in nine games and chipping in with three assists. The on loan striker from Rayados de Monterrey in Mexico could well be a star at the World Cup and has proved that he can perform at the highest level. (1.92 on over 3 goals, 1.83 to be under.)
Former Chelsea and Celtic midfielder Jiri Jarosik has also made an impact since joining in January and Eliseu showed at Getafe last season that his pacey wing play can unhinge even the best defences. Another impressive player to watch out for in the Zaragoza side is Colombian central midfielder Abel Aguilar and Brazilian Edmilson will be facing his former club.
Barcelona will be without Xavi who missed the Stuttgart match with an injury picked up in training and Sergio Busquets is also a doubt after he was substituted in the Champions League match. Guardiola has a choice of who to pick up front with Thierry Henry starting in midweek and Zlatan Ibrahimovic perhaps still out of favour after his red card at Almeria.
A brave man would bet against Barcelona but Messi can’t do it on his own every game and Zaragoza are a team firmly on the up.
101gg predicts: Real Zaragoza 1 – Barcelona 3 (9.18)
Posted by Arthur Antunes Coimbra | No Comments » | Permalink | ![]()
March 19th, 2010
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Blackburn v Chelsea, Premier League, March 21, 2010
Blackburn 7.90; Draw 4.08; Chelsea 1.40
“Now we have to be at our best against Blackburn at the weekend. Maybe there are two or three days to be disappointed – that’s normal when you are out. You have to show a reaction and I think we will do it.” – Florent Malouda.
Predictably (because no one truly knows), the press reaction has been somewhat split as to what Roman Abramovich will do following Chelsea’s Champions League exit at the hands of Jose Mourinho and Inter Milan. A number of the old guard at Stamford Bridge could be heading for the exit whilst Carlo Ancelotti has to win the league to keep his job, so this is an enormous game for the Pensioners.
Leaving summer plans to the side, Chelsea’s humbling defeat to their former manager is likely to have significantly dented confidence in the side and Mourinho’s presence must have knocked Ancelotti as well. But the west London club can ill afford a slip up at Blackburn so tight is it at the top of the Premier League.
Whilst Chelsea’s game in hand over Arsenal and Manchester United comes in midweek at Portsmouth, the Gunners are the form team in the league and Sir Alex Ferguson’s side host the Blues in a massive game in April. Of the three teams at the top the Blues have also been on the worst run, losing four of their last eight games on a run that has seen them beat Cardiff, Wolves, Stoke and West Ham and lose to Everton, Manchester City and Inter Milan twice.
None of the major Chelsea absentees are expected back for this match and there is no doubt that Petr Cech, Michael Essien and Ashley Cole were hugely missed against the Nerazzurri in midweek. Ross Turnbull will continue in goal and Didier Drogba will be looking to atone for his late sending off against Inter. Elsewhere, the likes of Nicolas Anelka and Frank Lampard will be looking to make up for anonymous performances against the Italians and as ever the spotlight will be on John Terry.
For Blackburn this marks just their second game in March having lost to Spurs at White Hart Lane last week. Sam Allardyce’s side were defensively poor at Tottenham and their home form has been crucial to keeping them clear of the relegation dogfight.
Paul Robinson picked up a calf injury at his former club and will be replaced by Jason Brown who failed to cover himself in glory at Spurs. Franco Di Santo will be unavailable as part of his loan deal from the Blues but Blackburn undoubtedly have some players who could cause Chelsea problems, especially if the away side are not on their A game.
Nikola Kalinic has been a major positive in recent weeks and the Croatian striker was desperately unlucky to have a fine goal chalked off last week. David Dunn should start behind Kalinic and Morten Gamst Pedersen will be eager to impress with his contract up at the end of the season.
Blackburn have already beaten Chelsea, on penalties in the Carling Cup this season whilst the Blues mauled Sam Allardyce’s side 5-0 at Stamford Bridge in October. These two teams are also currently playing out a two-legged FA Youth Cup semi-final and following their turbulent week, Chelsea would be chuffed to repeat their youngsters’ 1-0 win at Ewood Park on Wednesday night.
Carlo Ancelotti and his side have an opportunity to make a real statement with wins at Blackburn and Portsmouth. But somehow the spectre of Jose Mourinho may be hard to shake and you can be certain Big Sam will make sure his players are well aware this is a golden opportunity to secure a major scalp.
101gg predicts: Blackburn 1 – Chelsea 2 (6.27)
Posted by Arthur Antunes Coimbra | No Comments » | Permalink | ![]()
March 19th, 2010
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Stoke v Tottenham, Premier League, March 20, 2010
Stoke 3.46; Draw 3.17; Tottenham 2.07
Tottenham head to the Britannia Stadium for one of the hardest fixtures of the season as they go searching for the three points that their top four rivals have all failed to achieve at Stoke.
Manchester City and Liverpool both drew 1-1 and last week Aston Villa could only draw 0-0 at Stoke. To add a little more spice to the fixture, Ryan Shawcross returns to the home squad following his three-match suspension for a horror tackle on Aaron Ramsey which earned him a red card against Arsenal.
Harry Redknapp’s side have been on a good run in recent weeks and face a crucial four days of their season with the FA Cup quarter final replay with Fulham on Wednesday. Successive league victories over Wigan, Everton and Blackburn have meant Spurs are still in fourth but with games against Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City to come, this is an encounter they need to win.
Two players have been prominent for Tottenham in recent weeks: Gareth Bale and Roman Pavlyuchenko. The left sided Welshman has been in super form in 2010 and was man of the match last week against Blackburn with a performance that ran Michel Salgado ragged for 90 minutes. Pavlyuchenko meanwhile has scored seven goals in his last five games and has even now hinted at staying at White Hart Lane in the summer.
Despite the Russian striker’s amazing form, he is still not guaranteed a starting position at Stoke with Peter Crouch set to be included. The lanky former Liverpool striker is often preferred by Redknapp for away games and could be key to aiding the Spurs defence against the Stoke aerial bombardment.
Spurs have been without a host of midfielders in recent weeks (Tom Huddlestone, Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Jenas) but David Bentley should be available after a short lay off. The central midfield pairing of Wilson Palacios and Luka Modric will have a big role to play, the Honduran is one booking from a two-game suspension and the Croatian will have to prove he can cut it against one of the most physical teams in the league.
Stoke have had an excellent 2010 and are just four points away from the magical 40 to ensure Premier League survival for the second successive season. The home defeat to Arsenal was their only league reverse for 10 games and the Potters fancy their chances against anyone at home.
Tony Pulis has admitted his big dilemma for this game is whether to play Ryan Shawcross: “Ryan is fine as far as the Arsenal business is concerned. He has an old head on young shoulders and has dealt with it pretty well. I’m sure the Arsenal thing has gone now, but I am undecided about what defence to play against Spurs.”
It would though be a major surprise if Shawcross didn’t play as he is chasing a World Cup spot in Fabio Capello’s England squad and his form before the tackle on Ramsey singled the former Manchester United trainee as arguably Stoke’ player of the season. Pulis’ real decision is who to play up front alongside Mamady Sidibe. Both Tuncay and Ricardo Fuller are a real handful but both have failed to consistently score goals this season.
Both sides have been well rested over the past week and Stoke should be confident they can damage Spurs’ top four ambitions. The Potters battered Tottenham in October 2008 in one of Juande Ramos’ final games as manager and the 2-1 scoreline flattered Stoke. They also won at White Hart Lane in October 2009 thanks to a late Glen Whealen goal in a game where Spurs failed to dominate.
Traditionally this is a game in which Spurs usually struggle and players such as Heurelho Gomes and Michael Dawson will be particularly important against Stoke’s famed direct style. A fascinating encounter awaits and it would be no surprise if Tottenham failed to take home all three points.
101gg predicts: Stoke 2 – Tottenham 2 (14.88)
Posted by Arthur Antunes Coimbra | 1 Comment » | Permalink | ![]()
March 18th, 2010
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Arsenal v West Ham, Premier League, March 20, 2010
Arsenal 1.19; Draw 5.65; West Ham 13.35
The big problem for West Ham is that, while few would expect them to get anything out of their trip to the Emirates on Saturday evening, with just nine games left and on a run of three straight defeats, time is running out for Gianfranco Zola’s men to keep their collective heads above water.
Having lost to Manchester United (3-nil away), Bolton (2-1 at home) and Chelsea (4-1 away) in recent weeks, one wonders what the morale is like at Upton Park these days.
Against the Blues last weekend there was so much to admire about the Eastenders first half display. They more than held their own in the opening 45, with Scott Parker capping a fine performance with a brilliant goal from 25-yards out. But after the break the Hammers were found wanting, as the relegation strugglers were punished for poor marking and allowing too many crosses into the box. In particular, Florent Malouda repeatedly roasted suspect right-back Jonathan Spector down the right-hand side, and the Frenchman barely needed much encouragement to send quality balls into the danger area.
Zola’s tactics at Chelsea also were slightly questionable. Winter signing Ilan Araujo looked so bad he could be the new Marco Boogers, while Mido was decent enough at holding up the ball and offering himself as an outlet for his teammates, yet he lacked much of the guile and attacking cut-and-thrust attitude which Carlton Cole has provided this season.
The Gunners though will provide a very different test to the problems the Hammers faced at Stamford Bridge last week. Arsenal will employ their pass-pass-pass style of attacking football, and if the Hammers arrive to the game in a stand-offish manner than the Gunners could chalk up a shed-load of goals.
Accordingly, West Ham will have to prove competitive in the centre of the park if they are to have any chance of picking up an unlikely point against the Wenger Boys. That will need the likes of Parker, Radoslav Kovac and Valon Behrami to work tirelessly at trying to disrupt the Arsenal rhythm. West Ham may also try and force the hosts to funnel the ball into their wide areas as, unlike Chelsea, the Gunners don’t usually rely on crosses and headers to win them their football matches. With just Nicklas Bendtner (six goals in his last five outings) to aim for in the danger area, Matthew Upson, Danny Gabbidon and Rob Green would surely welcome Arsenal trying to beat them by such tactics.
One thing that West Ham will be acutely aware of though is the need to play until the final whistle. No Premier League team has scored more times in the final 15 minutes this season than the Gunners, with Arsenal having scored 19 goals of their 71 goals in all competitions in the final 15 minutes.
Arsenal will hope that they won’t need to wait on Saturday to see off the Hammers, particularly as they’ve been boosted by the news that captain Cesc Fabregas has returned to full training after his recent hamstring injury. Cesc now appears set to return for the clash with West Ham, and his presence cannot be understated having scored 17 goals and contributed 12 assists in 32 games for the Gunners this term.
Fellow midfielder Tomas Rosicky is also set to return from injury and will be in contention for Saturday’s game and Alex Song will also be available for selection following suspension. Both players will have their work cut out to get into Wenger’s starting eleven, with Samir Nasri’s recent wonder-goal against Porto pencilling the Frenchman in as a certain starter, while Abou Diaby, Theo Walcott and Andrei Arshavin will all be hungry for starts too.
Arsenal are the Premier League’s form team and are gunning to win their sixth game in succession - something they haven’t achieved since 2007 - but should be mindful that West Ham have shown spirit in N5 in recent years. The Hammers were the last side to win at Highbury and the first to take three points from the Emirates in April 2007, while they have lost just once on their last four visits to Islington.
But recent history is far less generous to Zola’s men, who have won none of their last 14 Premier League away matches. It would take a brave person to back West Ham as reversing that trend this weekend against a team who have the league title in their sights.
101gg predicts: Arsenal 2 - West Ham 0 (5.75)
Posted by Arthur Antunes Coimbra | 2 Comments » | Permalink | ![]()
March 17th, 2010
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Liverpool v Lille, Europa League last 16, second-leg, March 18, 2010
Liverpool 1.46; Draw 3.90; Lille 6.88
It is probably too far to stretch it by claiming that Liverpool’s next two matches have the potential of redefining their season. First up on Thursday night is the arrival of Lille in the Europa League, followed by a meeting against their old adversary Manchester United on Sunday at Old Trafford.
Looking to end the season on a high which has been lacking for the majority of the campaign, the Reds will head into their second leg with Lille with an uncharacteristic gentle spring in their step this week. Monday night’s swashbuckling 4-1 victory over Portsmouth was up there with Liverpool’s finest attacking displays of the season. Their devastating six minute spell in the first half in which they crashed home three goals to kill the match before the interval was a real confidence booster, in which the Merseysiders passing was top-notch and the team’s morale appeared to be visibly growing on the pitch.
Such a shot in the arm could scarcely have arrived at a better time.
Eden Hazard’s late free-kick handed Lille a slender advantage after their first leg, leaving Liverpool to walk a tightrope knowing that should they concede an away goal at Anfield, then the Reds will need to score three to book a place in the Europa League’s last eight. (Liverpool are 3.75 to reach the Europa League final, and 7.50 to win the competition outright.)
Benitez will be forced into at least one change. Maxi Rodriguez is ineligible for European competition, and his place on the right of midfield is likely to go to either Dirk Kuyt or Yossi Benayoun, both of whom were rested as the Reds ran riot against Pompey.
Liverpool’s midfield may be shaken up further as, after netting his first goal since arriving at Liverpool last summer against Pompey, Alberto Aquilani could also be forced to watch from the sidelines with news that the Italian has been struck down with a virus. In Aquilani’s absence, Lucas Leiva will likely step into the breach.
Elsewhere, there is little selection news report. Martin Skrtel (foot) and Fabio Aurelio (thigh) will be out until at least next month. And although Javier Mascherano was limping towards the end of the Portsmouth match, manager Rafa Benitez has since dispelled fears that the Argentine picked up a serious knock. Liverpool’s defence, with Glen Johnson having returned to fitness, picks itself, as does the Reds’ attack which will be spearheaded by captain Steven Gerrard and Spanish super-striker Fernando Torres.
Liverpool, though, are unlikely to find Lille an easy team to turn over. After beating Grenoble 1-nil last weekend in Ligue 1, Rudy Garcia’s men are currently fourth in the French top flight, where they now have real ambitions of upsetting the odds to steal the title from under the noses of Bordeaux, Lyon and Marseille.
Lille will also undoubtedly pose a threat to the Scouse backline, being the top scorers in Ligue 1 with 51 goals in 28 matches this season. Unfortunately for the visitors though, star striker Gervinho will be missing with a knee injury, however having only failed to score in four matches this season the Ivorians’ absence should be managed by the Frenchmen. (1.94 to be over 2.5 goals, 1.81 to be under.)
The player Liverpool will be most concerned about is Belgian youngster Eden Hazard. A 19-years-old and having scored the winner in the first leg, Hazard has already forged himself a reputation to strike fear into the Scousers, being one of the most highly-sought after players of his generation. With his low centre of gravity, excellent technique and pace to burn, it would not be a stretch to place Hazard in the top bracket of players plying their trade in Ligue 1 this season.
Leading the Lille line will be Frenchman Pierre-Alain Frau, who has scored 13 goals in 31 appearances this season and is in the midst of his most productive season for some time. Alongside Frau, Polish winger Ludovic Obraniak, with five goals and four assists this term, will also look to join in the attacks from high on the left-hand side.
Looking more broadly around the Lille team, tough tackling Rio Mavuba will be employed as Lille’s enforcer in the middle of the park, while at the back Adil Rami, the giant centre-half, will not only prove himself robust in a defensive sense, but with three goals already this season he can also pose a threat from set-pieces at the other end of the pitch.
While Liverpool may be confident of claiming a win over Lille in front of the Kop, the bigger question will be whether they can shut out Lille to win the tie on aggregate. On that note the Liverpudlians have reasons to be slightly concerned as Lille have managed to score in every single away trip in the competition so far this season, and so a tense night of nail-biting may be in store on Thursday.
101gg predicts: Liverpool 2 - Lille 0 (6.47)
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