Forbes magazine undertook a mathematical study on which teams are most likely to win the Premier League and all the data currently points to Arsenal.
Forbes have compiled their data by tracking six independent Premier League predictive models, and they have determined that the Gunners stand a 31.1% chance of winning the league. Frobes explain:
From a macro view, the six team-level predictive models this blog has been covering since the start of the season have continued to shift in Arsenal’s favor, and the North London club now leads the average of the models.
Arsenal’s upward movement has come largely at the expense of Manchester United, who continues to tumble in the eyes of the predictive models. Chelsea’s and Manchester City’s chances have remained relatively constant since the beginning of the season.
After factoring in the competition faced to date and looking at the remaining schedule, all of the models find Arsenal to be either a title contender or a favorite to win the title.
The business magazine do stress that their study is far from conclusive, wrapping up their article saying:
It’s a long way between now and then, and Arsenal are still only slight title favorites with only a 31.1% likelihood of winning the title. They are, however, still the title favorites at this stage of the season, something they’ve not been able to say for a long-time at the Emirates Stadium.
A copy of the Forbes Premier League predictive graph can be seen below.